Overview

 

It will remain dry and sunny for the week. Winds and seas will gradually subside over the next few days.

Temperatures will be gradually getting warmer especially toward end of the week. Temperatures may reach the upper 80’s into the low 90’s for the end of the week into the weekend.

Chance of showers and thunderstorms may increase slightly during the weekend as a front drops down from the north.

 

 

Analysis

 

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was mostly clear to partly cloudy.

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Late Night)

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Late Night)

 

Overnight lows were in the low to middle 70’s for the metro/coastal areas to the low 60’s to upper 60’s further inland. Winds were light to moderate out of the northeast and east with occasional higher gusts near the coast especially early.

During the day, it was sunny to partly sunny. It was rather breezy especially near the coast. A few showers developed near a weakening backdoor cold front that was entering the northern portions of the region.  Also, streamer cloud lines can be seen over the Atlantic.

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Afternoon)

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Afternoon)

 

High temperatures were in the low to middle 80’s with a few areas reaching the upper 80’s. Winds were northeast and east at 10 – 20 mph with higher gusts especially near the coast.

With rather dry air remaining in place, dewpoint temperatures were generally near 60 to the middle 60’s. There was a sliver of 50’s near the southwest portion of Florida away from the coast.

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

 

Below is the U.S. surface analysis for late this afternoon.

U.S. Surface Analysis (Late Afternoon)

U.S. Surface Analysis
(Late Afternoon)

 

Forecast

 

Short Range Forecast:

For tonight, it will be mostly clear with some high cloudiness possible. It will be rather breezy mainly near the coastal areas.  Lows will be in the upper 60’s to the lower 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows near 60 to the middle 60’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade County may see lows in the middle 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

Small Craft Operators should exercise caution along the Miami-Dade and Broward County coastal waters (except for Biscayne Bay). High Rip Current risk remains in effect.

 

At the middle and upper levels, for the middle of the week, a 588 DM plus High will be centered near the central Gulf States. It will be flanked by two Lows; one near the southwest U.S. and one near the northeast U.S. coast. Going into the of the week, the pattern changes little with the High near the central Gulf States shifting south into the Gulf of Mexico and a complex Low system near the northeast U.S./eastern Canadian Maritimes. In between the High over the Gulf of Mexico and an expanding 588 DM High in the Atlantic, a weakness/trough/Low in the northern Caribbean develops.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-21-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-21-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-23-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-23-14

Deep layered High (surface and aloft) will remain near the region for the remainder of the week. This will suppress shower development and moisture levels remaining low. PWAT will remain below 1” through Thursday and around 1” to around 1 ¼” for Friday. Most of the moisture will be confined to the lower levels. This is still below normal for this time of year.

The deep moisture continues to remain well to the south of the region over the northwest Caribbean.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-20-14(12z) at 081 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-20-14(12z) at 081 Hours

 

Winds will be diminishing as a surface High sinks southward in response to a cold front moving south. As the High moves south, the pressure gradient will relax. Additionally, winds become more southerly (hence the increase in moisture mentioned above)

Mild temperatures will warm through the week and rising to above normal levels.

 

For Wednesday, it will be mostly sunny. Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s. Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low to the middle 60’s.  Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows in the middle 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecastHigh Rip Current Risk remains in effect through Wednesday evening.

For Thursday, it will be mainly sunny. Highs will be in the low 80’s near the coastal areas to middle and upper 80’s in the metro and inland areas. Lows Thursday night will be in the upper 60’s to the lower 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the middle 60’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade County may see lows in the middle 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

For Friday, it will be sunny. Highs will be in the middle 80’s to near 90. Some areas may reach the low 90’s. Lows Friday night will be around 70 to the middle 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low 60’s to upper 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

 

Medium Range Outlook:

In the middle and upper levels, going into the end of the weekend, the pattern remains essentially the same. The High settles south (with ridging extending northward) into the eastern Gulf of Mexico as a trough digs south down the eastern U.S. seaboard/western Atlantic. As a High 588 DM plus High approaches the U.S. west coast, the Low in the southwest U.S. advances little more to the east while opening up. The Low in the northern Caribbean is absorbed by a trough to the north.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-25-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-25-14

 

With the mid/upper level trough digging southward along the U.S. eastern seaboard, it will support a cold front to move into the southeast U.S. for the weekend.

WPC Forecast 5-24-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-24-14 (8:00 am)

 

This will result in winds becoming more south/southwest and west. This usually means warmer conditions for the eastern portions of south Florida during the spring/summer months. May see high temperatures in the upper 80’s to the low 90’s range.  There may even be some middle 90’s mainly away from the coast.

GFS Extended MOS Forecast

GFS Extended MOS Forecast

 

For the weekend, with a southward moving front, the pooling of moisture and drawing moisture from the south/southwest may lead to little better chance of showers and thunderstorms.

 

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-20-14(12z) at 108 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-20-14(12z) at 108 Hours

 

Winds will be lighter which may allow for better sea breeze development. Additionally, with the upper level trough nearby, the GFS model forecasts 500 mb temperatures will be in the -9 ° C to -11° C range which may aid with the development of thunderstorms. Some of those thunderstorms could be strong. The negating portion of this is the PWAT (Precipitable Water) remains meager with the value around 1” to 1⅓” (possibly little higher in some periods) which remains below normal for this time of year. Heavy rains, gusty winds and possible hail would be the primary impacts.

Most of the activity looks to be focused in the interior.

 

Extended Range Outlook:

At the middle and upper levels, for early next week, the overall pattern aloft tends to flatten out. The 588 DM plus High shifts further south into the southern Gulf of Mexico and expands east and west, with a subtle/weakening trough moving into the central U.S. A more pronounced trough moves into the U.S. west coast. The trough near the eastern U.S. seaboard shifts further into the western Atlantic.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-27-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-27-14

 

As the mid/upper level pattern flattens out, the front loses support and decays near or just north of the region for the beginning of next week.

WPC Forecast 5-26-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-26-14 (8:00 am)

 

A surface High builds in from the north behind the front for early next week.

WPC Forecast 5-27-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-27-14 (8:00 am)

 

Easterly winds become re-established over the region. This will moderate the temperatures slightly especially near the coastal areas.

It will also allow for more low level moisture to work in. This may be sufficient for somewhat better chance of showers for the region for the early to middle part of next week.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-20-14(12z) at 177 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-20-14(12z) at 177 Hours

 

Looking further out, moisture will continue to increase and deepen into the end of next week. This may lead to better chance of showers and thunderstorms.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-20-14(12z) at 240 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-20-14(12z) at 240 Hours

 

This dry weather couldn’t last forever considering the rainy season on average begins around May 20th.

Longer range GFS model depicts increasing moisture in the western Caribbean for the first week of June.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-20-14(12z) at 300 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-20-14(12z) at 300 Hours

 

 

 

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Filed under: Southeast Florida Weather

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