Overview

 

There will be generally dry conditions with mostly sunny skies for the weekend into at least early next week. There may be some high cloudiness streaming across from time to time.

It will be breezy for the weekend which will result in hazardous marine conditions. There will be high risk of rip currents for the weekend.

It will remain mostly dry and sunny into most of next week.

 

Analysis

 

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was partly cloudy to mostly cloudy. Few showers/areas of rain affected portions of the region mainly in the southern areas.

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Late Night)

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Late Night)

 

Overnight lows rather uniform with temperatures mostly around 70 to the low 70’s. Winds were mostly light out of the south and southwest becoming more westerly late at some areas.

During the day, it was mostly cloudy with some occasional peeks of the sun. Showers lingered over the region early; mainly in Miami-Dade County. The activity moved offshore by afternoon.

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Afternoon)

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Afternoon)

 

With the cloud cover and cooler air mass moving in, afternoon highs remained below normal. The highs were mainly in the middle and upper 70’s. A few areas reached around 80. West Palm Beach broke a record for the coolest maximum temperature of 77 ° F. The previous record was 78° F dating back to 1891.

With drier air filtering behind the front, dewpoint temperatures were falling through the day from north to south. By late afternoon, the northern portion of the area was in the 50’s with the southern portion in the middle and upper 60’s.

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

 

Below is the U.S. surface analysis for late this afternoon.

U.S. Surface Analysis (Late Afternoon)

U.S. Surface Analysis
(Late Afternoon)

 

Forecast

 

Short Range Forecast:

For tonight, it will be clear to partly cloudy. It will be breezy especially near the coast. Lows will be in the middle 60’s to upper 60’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the upper 50’s to the low 60’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade County may see lows around 70.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

Small Craft Advisory is in effect.

 

At the middle and upper levels, a high amplitude trough will be over the eastern U.S. for the beginning of the weekend with a ridge in the western U.S. and an approaching Low for the northwest U.S. The trough in the eastern U.S. lifts out for the beginning of next week, but then a complex closed low forms near the northeast U.S./northwest Atlantic with a trough digging down the U.S. eastern seaboard/western Atlantic for the beginning of next week. The ridge in the western U.S. shifts eastward and amplifies as the trough/Low moves into the western U.S. The High in the Caribbean is displaced southward.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-17-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-17-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-19-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-19-14

 

The cold front that moved through the region during the morning will move a little further south before becoming stationary to the south as it gradually decays. The deepest moisture associated with the front will be across Cuba and the northern Caribbean by the end of the weekend.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-16-14(12z) at 057 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-16-14(12z) at 057 Hours

 

Slightly cooler and drier air filters behind the front. It will be mostly sunny. There may be some high cloudiness streaming across at times. Models have backed off slightly on the degree of drying that was being shown on previous days. Dewpoint temperatures will fall into the comfortable 60’s and possibly 50’s for some periods during the weekend. We are approaching the rainy season, and will probably not see these conditions again for several months.

It will become breezy to windy tonight into Saturday. Small Craft Advisory is in effect overnight into Saturday morning. A High Rip Current Risk goes into effect Saturday morning.

Temperatures will be slightly below normal rising to near normal by the beginning of next week.

 

For Saturday, it will be sunny. There may be some high cloudiness. It will be breezy to rather windy at the coast. Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s. Lows Saturday night will be in the upper 60’s to the middle 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the middle 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

Small Craft Advisory will be in effect through the morning. Monitor latest forecast for possible extension. High Rip Current Risk goes into effect in the morning.

For Sunday, it will be sunny. There may be some high cloudiness. It will be breezy especially near the coastal/metro areas. Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s. Some areas in the interior may reach the upper 80’s. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper 60’s to the middle 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low to middle 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

High Rip Current Risk continues into Sunday Evening.

For Monday, it will be mostly sunny. It may be rather breezy especially near the coast and the southern portions. Highs will be in the middle 80’s with some of the coastal areas in the low 80’s. Some areas in the interior may reach the upper 80’s. Lows Monday night will be around 70 to the middle 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low 60’s to upper 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

 

Medium Range Outlook:

In the middle and upper levels, by the middle of next week, a rather strong 588 DM plus High will be near the central Gulf States flanked by troughs/Lows. One closed Low will be in the western U.S. with the other one off the northeast U.S. coast.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-21-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-21-14

 

With the digging trough along the U.S. eastern seaboard/western Atlantic, this may send a weak backdoor cold front toward Florida. However, it may washout before reaching the region.

WPC Forecast 5-19-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-19-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-20-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-20-14 (8:00 am)

This may lead to some increase in moisture which may be enough for chance of showers early to possibly into the middle of next week.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-16-14(12z) at 099 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-16-14(12z) at 099 Hours

 

A surface High pressure builds in behind the front.

WPC Forecast 5-21-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-21-14 (8:00 am)

 

As this occurs, winds may freshen some for early next week. Small Craft Operators exercise caution may be required for portion of the area. Additionally, with onshore winds, the risk of rip currents may be elevated.

It will be mostly sunny and dry for the early portion of next week as the weather will be dominated by a deep layered High pressure as the upper level High builds in from the west. The only caveat is the potential for some showers with the possible backdoor front.

Temperatures will be near normal rising to slightly above normal levels for early next week.

 

Extended Range Outlook:

At the middle and upper levels, going into the end of next week, the pattern de-amplifies with the 588 DM plus High dominating the southern tier of states. Another 588 DM will be over the Atlantic.

GFS 500 mb Forecast Model 5-16-14(12z) at 183 Hours

GFS 500 mb Forecast Model 5-16-14(12z) at 183 Hours

 

In between, there will be a weakness/trough/Low in the central/western Caribbean. A split flow appears to evolve across the western U.S. with a trough/Low near Baja California and one in the western U.S. with another stronger Low approaching Canada’s west coast.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-23-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-23-14

 

The surface High will continue to be nearby.

WPC Forecast 5-22-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-22-14 (8:00 am)

 

In addition, the upper level High will be near resulting in continued deep layer ridging (surface and aloft). This will keep the region mostly dry and sunny for most of the remainder of next week. The deeper moisture will remain to the south into the end of next week.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-16-14(12z) at 177 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-16-14(12z) at 177 Hours

 

The GFS model indicates the potential for some increase in moisture the following weekend.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-16-14(12z) at 216 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-16-14(12z) at 216 Hours

 

Temperatures will gradually rise to above normal levels toward the end of next week

 

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

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Filed under: Southeast Florida Weather

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