Overview

 

Showers and thunderstorms into Thursday and into portion of Friday as a rather robust late season cold front approaches from the northwest.

Once the cold front clears the region late in the week, it will be little less warm with drier air moving in. There will be generally dry conditions with mostly sunny skies for the weekend into at least early next week.

It may become breezy end of the week into the weekend which may increase the risk of rip currents. Seas may also increase and may reach advisory levels for some periods.

 

Analysis

 

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was mostly partly cloudy. Some sites reported cloudy conditions while other sites had clear conditions at times. Scattered showers developed over the Atlantic and moved ashore affecting portions of the area. Other showers were affecting the Florida Keys and the Florida Straits.

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Late Night)

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Late Night)

 

Overnight lows were in the middle and upper 70’s with areas further inland in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s. Winds were easterly to occasionally southeasterly at moderate speeds occasionally gusty along the coast. Winds over the interior were typically lighter.

During the day, it was mostly sunny to partly sunny. Rapidly moving scattered to locally numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms affected portions of the area.

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Afternoon)

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Afternoon)

 

High temperatures were mostly in the middle and upper 80’s with some of the coastal areas in the low 80’s. Winds were east and southeast at 10 – 20 mph with higher gusts especially near the coast.

Dewpoint temperatures were around 70 to the low 70’s over the region with values in the middle and upper 70’s in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

 

Below is the U.S. surface analysis for late this afternoon.

U.S. Surface Analysis (Late Afternoon)

U.S. Surface Analysis
(Late Afternoon)

 

Below is the satellite image with surface features overlaid depicting the surface trough and Low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  A cold front is moving through the central Gulf of Mexico.

Satellite Image (Late Afternoon)

Satellite Image
(Late Afternoon)

 

 

Forecast

 

Short Range Forecast:

For tonight, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy. It will be rather breezy especially near the coast. There will be widely scattered to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.   Lows will be in the middle and upper 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 70 to the low 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

Small Craft Operators should exercise caution.

 

At the middle and upper levels, a “blocky” (very slow movement) and high amplitude pattern continues toward the end of the week. A trough will be over the east-central U.S. flanked by Highs/ridges over the U.S. eastern seaboard/western Atlantic and the western U.S. A 588 DM High plus will be centered over the western Caribbean. By early weekend, the trough will lift northeast into the eastern U.S. with the High in the Caribbean weakening. The ridge in the western U.S. is less amplified as a Low approaches the Pacific Northwest.  The High in the Caribbean weakens.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-15-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-15-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-17-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-17-14

 

The weak inverted surface trough that was over the western Bahamas on Tuesday re-oriented to the eastern Gulf of Mexico overnight into the day in advance of a cold front. A weak surface Low was developing along the axis of this trough.

The high amplitude mid/upper level trough supports a rather robust late season cold front. As the front advances southeast across the Gulf of Mexico, the surface Low will merge into the front and move northeast into the southeast U.S.

WPC Forecast 5-15-14 (2:00 pm)

WPC Forecast 5-15-14 (2:00 pm)

 

The front will be located across central Florida Thursday evening.

WPC Forecast 5-15-14 (8:00 pm)

WPC Forecast 5-15-14 (8:00 pm)

 

Ahead and along the front, there will be numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms. PWAT (Precipitable Water) is forecast to increase to around 2” to 2.2” on Thursday which is well above normal for this time of year. With these high PWAT values, there may be locally heavy rains especially if any training occurs or with slower moving activity. Below is the forecast 48 hour QPF totals through Friday evening.

Days 1 – 2 QPF 48 Hours Precipitation

Days 1 – 2 QPF
48 Hours Precipitation

 

The front moves off the southeast Florida coast Friday morning.

WPC Forecast 5-16-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-16-14 (8:00 am)

 

By late Friday the area of showers will have moved into the Florida Straits.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-14-14(12z) at 066 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-14-14(12z) at 066 Hours

 

Slightly cooler and much drier air invades the region for Saturday. Temperatures fall to below normal levels and will be rather mild for this time of year. The ECMWF forecast model has trended a little cooler with minimum temperatures. Forecast minimum temperatures will range mostly in the 60’s in the interior to around 70 to the low 70’s near the coastal areas.

Forecast models continue to suggest PWAT in the ½” to ⅔” range on Saturday and as mentioned in yesterday’s post, it will be close to minimum levels possible for this time of year.

This will lead to anomalous low dewpoint temperatures for this time of year. It will range in the comfortable 50’s (possibly 40’s) on Saturday.

Pressure gradient tightens later on Friday and into the weekend. This will lead to increasing winds and seas. A Small Craft Advisory may be required for later Friday/Saturday for portions if not all of the area. Small Craft Operators exercise caution may be required in other periods from Friday into the weekend.

 

For Thursday, it will be variably cloudy. There will be numerous showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Highs will be in the middle 80’s. Lows Thursday night will be around 70 to the middle 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the middle to upper 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

For Friday, it will be partly sunny. There may be some higher cloudiness. There will be scattered showers diminishing through the day. Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s. Lows Friday night will be in the middle 60’s to around 70. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade County may see lows in the low 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

Small Craft Operators may need to exercise caution. Small Craft Advisory may be required for portions of the coastal waters.

 

For Saturday, it will be sunny. There may be some high cloudiness. It will become breezy. Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s. Lows Saturday night will be in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low to middle 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

Small Craft Advisory may be required for portions if not all of the area. With increasing onshore winds, the risk of rip currents may increase.

 

Medium Range Outlook:

In the middle and upper levels, by the beginning of next week, after some de-amplification occurs, a trough digs southward along the U.S. eastern seaboard/western Atlantic. A ridge is in the central U.S. with a Low/trough moving into the western U.S.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-19-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-19-14

 

The rest of the weekend remains dry with mostly sunny conditions. PWAT recover to around ¾” on Sunday. Temperatures will remain mild (for this time of year) and somewhat below normal.

Winds may remain elevated into Sunday. Small Craft Operators exercise caution may be required for portions if not all of the area. Additionally, with rather fresh onshore winds, there will be an elevated risk of rip currents.

It will remain mostly sunny and dry into early next week with temperatures near to slightly below normal.

With the digging trough in the western Atlantic, forecast models hints at the possibility of weak backdoor cold front that will probably just move to the north and east of the region.

WPC Forecast 5-19-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-19-14 (8:00 am)

 

 

Extended Range Outlook:

At the middle and upper levels, going into the middle of next week, there isn’t much change as the “blocky” pattern continues. The most notable change appears to be the Low in the western U.S. dropping further south and closes off. The High in the Caribbean builds northward into the Gulf of Mexico and east-central U.S.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-21-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-21-14

A surface High will be nearby and an upper level High will build in from the central U.S. which will lead to subsidence over the region.   It will continue to remain dry and mostly sunny into the middle of the week. Most of the moisture will be confined at the low levels. Some high cloudiness may stream across the region at tines. The axis of moisture associated with the decaying front is forecast to remain well to the south through at least the middle of next week.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-14-14(12z) at 192 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-14-14(12z) at 192 Hours

 

Low level winds become more easterly into the middle of the week which will allow for gradually warming temperatures and for low level moisture to increase. Temperatures will rise to normal to above normal levels for the middle/end of next week.

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

 

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Filed under: Southeast Florida Weather

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