Overview

 

Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday as a weak wave/inverted trough approaches the region from the Bahamas and a rather robust late season cold front approaches from the northwest.

Once the cold front clears the region late in the week, it will be little less warm with drier air moving in. There will be generally dry conditions with mostly sunny skies for the weekend into at least early next week.

It may become breezy for the weekend which may increase the risk of rip currents. Seas may also increase but at this time it looks to be below advisory levels.

 

Analysis

 

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was mostly partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy. Widely scattered to locally scattered showers were affecting portions of the region mainly in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties. Other showers were affecting portions of the Florida Keys and extended east and south across the Florida Straits.

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Late Night)

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Late Night)

 

Minimum temperatures were in the middle and upper 70’s with areas further inland in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s (mainly in Palm Beach and Broward Counties). Winds were easterly in the 10 – 20 mph range with higher gusts especially along the metro/coastal areas. Winds further inland were typically lighter.

During the day, it was partly sunny to partly cloudy. Scattered showers affected portions of the region during the morning mainly in Broward and Palm Beach County as an east to west band of activity was lifting north while the individual elements were moving west. Other showers were over the Atlantic and the Florida Straits.

 

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Afternoon)

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Afternoon)

 

Afternoon highs were in the middle and upper 80’s.  Some areas near the coast were in the low 80’s.  Winds were easterly at 10 – 20 mph with higher gusts especially near the coast.

There was more moisture around today with PWAT (Precipitable Water) at around 1 ⅔”. This resulted in dewpoint temperatures rising to a rather uncomfortable 70 to the middle 70’s range.

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

 

Below is the U.S. surface analysis for late this afternoon. It depicts the weak wave/inverted surface trough in the western Bahamas.

U.S. Surface Analysis (Late Afternoon)

U.S. Surface Analysis
(Late Afternoon)

 

Below is the satellite image with surface features overlaid depicting the inverted surface trough in the central Bahamas.  A cold front is moving into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Also, included animated satellite imagery.

Satellite Image (Late Afternoon)

Satellite Image
(Late Afternoon)

Animated Satellite Imagery (Afternoon)

Animated Satellite Imagery
(Afternoon)

 

 

Forecast

 

Short Range Forecast:

For tonight, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy. There will be scattered to good chance of showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. It will be breezy especially near the coast. Lows will be in the middle and upper 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

Small Craft Operators exercise caution. High Rip Current Risk remains in effect.

At the middle and upper levels, going into the middle of the week, the pattern is anomalously highly amplified with a digging trough in the central U.S. with strong ridges on either side – one located along the U.S. east coast and another in the western U.S. The trough slowly migrates eastward while becoming negatively tilted. This pushes the High offshore into the western Atlantic. The High in the western U.S. continues, but appears to flatten out as a Low approaches the northwest U.S. A High is located near the northern Caribbean.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-14-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-14-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-16-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-16-14

 

A weak wave/inverted surface trough near the western Bahamas will continue to advance westward and into the region Wednesday and Thursday, though becoming less defined.

This will lead to showers and thunderstorms over the region on Wednesday.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-13-14(12z) at 033 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-13-14(12z) at 033 Hours

 

The highly amplified pattern will help to support a rather robust cold front for this time of year to penetrate into Florida. The cold front will move into north Florida on Thursday.

WPC Forecast 5-15-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-15-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-15-14 (8:00 pm)

WPC Forecast 5-15-14 (8:00 pm)

Winds veer to the south and southwest in advance of the front on Thursday which draws richer tropical moisture into the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be numerous to widespread.  The GFS model also shows a surface Low developing in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and then moves it across north Florida.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-13-14(12z) at 057 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-13-14(12z) at 057 Hours

 

PWAT will range from around 1.6” to 1.9” range with some periods in the 2” range. Some of the forecast models take it up to 2.2”. This is well above normal for this time of year”.

This may lead to the potential of locally heavy rainfall especially where training occurs or with slower moving activity. Below are the 3 Day Forecast QPF totals.

Days 1 – 3 QPF – 72 Hours Precipitation

Days 1 – 3 QPF
72 Hours Precipitation

 

Forecast models are quicker with frontal movement and now take the front through south Florida on Friday.

WPC Forecast 5-16-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-16-14 (8:00 am)

 

The chance of showers continues into Friday.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-13-14(12z) at 081 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-13-14(12z) at 081 Hours

 

Little cooler and much drier air is set to invade the region for Friday and into the weekend. Minimum temperatures may fall into the 60’s well inland to around 70 to the low 70’s along the metro and coastal areas.

 

For Wednesday, it will be partly cloudy. It will be breezy especially near the coast. Showers and thunderstorms are likely. Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s. Some areas may reach the upper 80’s. Lows Wednesday night will be in the middle to upper 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

Small Craft Operators exercise caution may be required for portion if not all of the areas. High Rip Current Risk remains in effect through the evening.

For Thursday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms are likely. Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s. Some areas may reach the upper 80’s. Lows Thursday night will be in the middle to upper 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

For Friday, it will be partly sunny. There will be scattered showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Highs will be in the middle 80’s. Some areas may reach the upper 80’s. Some areas near the coast may be in the low 80’s. Lows Friday night will be in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low to middle 60’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade County may see lows in the middle 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

 

Medium Range Outlook:

In the middle and upper levels, by the end of next weekend, the overall pattern de-amplifies. The trough will be near the eastern U.S. with a ridge in the west-central U.S. followed by a trough/Low in the western U.S. A High shifts westward toward the western Caribbean.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-18-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-18-14

 

The cold front will be well to the southeast of the region on Saturday.

WPC Forecast 5-17-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-17-14 (8:00 am)

 

The deepest moisture will be well to the southeast of the region.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-13-14(12z) at 105 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-13-14(12z) at 105 Hours

 

Drier air continues to filter in behind the front. GFS forecast model soundings depicts PWAT decreasing to around ½” on Saturday which is near the minimum possible for this time of year. By Sunday, PWAT recover to around ¾”. The black line on the PWAT graphics shown below is the minimum level at any given point in time.

Precipitable Water

Precipitable Water

 

This may lead to low and comfortable dewpoint temperatures in the 50’s with the possibility of 40’s which is unusually anomalous for this time of year.

By Sunday, PWAT recover to around ¾”.

The pressure gradient increases over the weekend leading to increasing winds and conversely seas. Also, with increasing onshore winds, the risk of rip currents will increase.

 

Extended Range Outlook:

At the middle and upper levels, for early next week, the pattern becomes more amplified as a trough digs down the U.S. eastern seaboard/western Atlantic with a amplifying ridge in the east-central U.S. with another trough/Low in the western U.S.

 

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-20-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-20-14

 

The front becomes nearly stationary for the beginning of next week across the central Bahamas southwest into the northwest Caribbean.

WPC Forecast 5-19-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-19-14 (8:00 am)

 

The highest moisture will continue to be well south of the region for early next week.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-13-14(12z) at 153 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-13-14(12z) at 153 Hours

 

With a mid/upper level trough digging down the eastern seaboard, may see a backdoor front. The GFS model depicts a dry front (if there is one).

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-13-14(12z) at 177 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-13-14(12z) at 177 Hours

 

The ECMWF model indicates a little more moisture.

As it looks now, next week will be mostly dry with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures are forecast to be near normal.

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

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Filed under: Southeast Florida Weather

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