Overview

 

Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms for the week as a weak wave/inverted trough approaches the region from the Bahamas and a rather robust late season cold front approaches from the northwest.

Once the cold front clears the region late in the week/early next weekend it will be little less warm with drier air moving in. May see dewpoint temperatures in the comfortable 50’s. This may be the last time we will see this for the next several months.

 

Analysis

 

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was generally partly cloudy to cloudy. Few areas reported clear skies at times. A few showers developing over the Atlantic moved ashore.

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Late Night)

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Late Night)

 

Overnight lows were mostly in the middle and upper 70’s at the metro and coastal areas to upper 60’s to low 70’s further inland. Winds were light to occasionally moderate (especially near the coastal/metro areas) out of the east.

During the day, it was partly sunny to partly cloudy. It was rather breezy especially at the coastal/metro areas. A few showers affected portions of the region.

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Afternoon)

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Afternoon)

 

High temperatures were mostly in the middle and upper 80’s. Winds were east and northeast at 10 – 20 mph with higher gusts especially near the coast.

With higher moisture around today, dewpoint temperatures were generally in the 60’s to near 70. There was a sliver of upper 50’s near the interior portions of southwest Florida.

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

 

Below is the U.S. surface analysis for late this afternoon.  It depicts the weak wave/inverted surface trough in the central Bahamas.

U.S. Surface Analysis (Late Afternoon)

U.S. Surface Analysis
(Late Afternoon)

 

Below is the satellite image with surface features overlaid depicting the inverted surface trough in the central Bahamas.  Also, included animated satellite imagery.

Satellite Image (Late Afternoon)

Satellite Image
(Late Afternoon)

Animated Satellite Imagery (Afternoon)

Animated Satellite Imagery
(Afternoon)

 

Forecast

 

Short Range Forecast:

For tonight, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy. It will be breezy to windy at the coastal areas. There will be isolated to widely scattered showers. Lows will be in the middle and upper 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

Small Craft Advisory is in effect. Also, there is High Rip Current Risk in effect.

At the middle and upper levels, the early part of the week begins with a trough in the central U.S. (aiding with the development of severe weather for portions of that region) and ridges near the west coast and eastern U.S./western Atlantic. A dampening out Low is located in the northern Caribbean. The trough migrates slowly eastward as it sharpens with hints of becoming negatively tilted toward the end of the week. The ridge out east shifts further into the Atlantic while the one near the west coast progresses further inland. Pattern appears to be “blocky” as indicated by the slow movement.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-13-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-13-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-15-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-15-14

 

The first feature that will affect the area is a weak easterly wave/inverted surface trough that will be approaching the region from the Bahamas. PWAT (Precipitable Water) is forecast to increase to around 1 ¼” to 1 ½” overnight. By Tuesday into Wednesday, PWAT will range between 1.5” to 1.8”.

GFS Precipitable Water Forecast Model 5-12-14(12z) at 018 Hours

GFS PWAT Forecast Model 5-12-14(12z) at 018 Hours

GFS Precipitable Water Forecast Model 5-12-14(12z) at 033 Hours

GFS PWAT Forecast Model 5-12-14(12z) at 033 Hours

This will keep the chance of showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday into Wednesday (more numerous).

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-12-14(12z) at 033 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-12-14(12z) at 033 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-12-14(12z) at 057 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-12-14(12z) at 057 Hours

On Thursday, a front will move into north Florida.

WPC Forecast 5-15-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-15-14 (8:00 am)

 

This will push the surface High over the Atlantic further eastward and with an approaching front; winds veer more from the southeast and south. Deeper tropical moisture is drawn into the region with forecast models depicting PWAT reaching around 2” on Thursday. This will lead to good chance of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-12-14(12z) at 081 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-12-14(12z) at 081 Hours

 

With high PWAT values, there is the potential for locally heavy rains especially if training occurs or with slower moving activity.

Day 3 QPF - 24 Hours Precipitation

Day 3 QPF – 24 Hours Precipitation

Days 4 - 5 QPF - 48 Hours Precipitation

Days 4 – 5 QPF – 48 Hours Precipitation

Days 1 - 5 QPF - 5 Days Precipitation

Days 1 – 5 QPF – 5 Days Precipitation

 

For Tuesday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy. It will be breezy especially near the coast. There will be widely scattered to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80’s. Some areas may reach near 90. Lows Tuesday night will be in the middle to upper 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 70 to the low 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

Small Craft Advisory is in effect through the morning. Also, there is High Rip Current Risk in effect through 8 PM.

For Wednesday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy. There will be scattered to good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be around the middle 80’s to around 90. Lows Wednesday night will be in the middle and upper 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around the upper 60’s to the low 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

For Thursday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy. There will be scattered to good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the middle and upper 80’s. Lows Thursday night will be in the middle and upper 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around the upper 60’s to the low 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

 

Medium Range Outlook:

In the middle and upper levels, by early next weekend, the “blocky” pattern continues with a rather deep trough reaching the eastern U.S. with the ridge in the western Atlantic (centered near the northern Caribbean) and western U.S.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-17-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-17-14

 

With the rather anomalous deep trough, it will support a cold front to move into the region. It will be a slow mover. It may take into the beginning of next weekend before it moves south of the region.

WPC Forecast 5-16-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-16-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-17-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-17-14 (8:00 am)

This will keep the chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the end of the week.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-12-14(12z) at 105 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-12-14(12z) at 105 Hours

 

By the beginning of the weekend, the front should be far enough south for the activity to shift to the south of the region.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-12-14(12z) at 126 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-12-14(12z) at 126 Hours

 

It will become less warm with much drier air filtering in behind the front. The pressure gradient tightens behind the front which may lead to freshening of winds.

 

Extended Range Outlook:

At the middle and upper levels, by the beginning of next week, the trough will be along the U.S. east coast/western Atlantic while the overall pattern de-amplifies. The ridge has moved well offshore into the Atlantic with another ridge moving into the central U.S. followed by a trough in the western U.S. The High in the Caribbean is shunted southwest toward central America.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-19-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-19-14

 

As the upper level trough de-amplifies, the front will lose support for further southward progress and become nearly stationary beginning of next week.

WPC Forecast 5-19-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-19-14 (8:00 am)

 

With the front far enough south, drier air continues filtering in. PWAT falls to below 1” late Saturday and to around .6” Sunday which is well below normal for this time of year. Dewpoint temperatures may fall into the comfortable 50’s and 60’s. This will probably be the last time we will see this for the next several months. Enjoy it while you can. It won’t last long.

Looking further out,  low level winds veer more onshore and with the front becoming nearly stationary to the south, some of that moisture may get picked up and approach the region later next week.

 

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

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Filed under: Southeast Florida Weather

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