Analysis:

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was generally partly cloudy.  Low level moisture has increased from previous days with a slug of higher moisture to the south.  Something that hasn’t been seen on radar for several days were showers. A band of scattered showers had developed over the Florida Straits.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

 

Overnight lows were mostly in the middle 60’s to low 70’s. Some of the immediate coastal areas were in the middle 70’s.  Areas further inland were in the upper 50’s to low 60’s with some areas well inland (primarily in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) in the middle and upper 50’s. Winds were light occasionally moderate along the coastal areas out of the east and southeast.  The stronger winds near the east coast deterred temperatures from falling as much as the interior areas due to the maritime influence of the Atlantic and Gulf Stream.

During the day, it was sunny to partly sunny becoming partly cloudy over portions of the area during the afternoon.   The showers in the Florida Straits diminished during the day as they approached portions of the Florida Keys.  Isolated showers developed over portions of Palm Beach County and near southwest Florida.  Additionally, a streamer band of showers was between the southeast Florida coast and Andros Islands in the Bahamas.  False radar return off southwest coast of Florida coast was due to CHAF.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

 

Highs were around 80 to the middle 80’s.  Winds were east and southeast around 15 mph with higher gusts.

A cold front was located in Texas late this afternoon.

Satellite Imagery Overlaid with Fronts (Late Afternoon)

Satellite Imagery Overlaid with Fronts (Late Afternoon)

 

With increased moisture, dewpoint temperatures have increased to the middle 60’s to around 70 degrees and approaching the lower 70’s near portions of the coastal areas.

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

 

With increase of low level moisture (higher dewpoint temperatures), there will be a better chance for the development of fog tonight well inland.  With prevailing surface winds out of the east and southeast, the fog should stay away from the coastal areas.

 

Forecast:

Short Range Forecast:

For tonight, it will be partly cloudy.  It may be somewhat breezy near the coast. Some isolated showers may move ashore.  There may be patchy to areas of fog mainly well inland late tonight.  Lows will be in the middle 60’s to low 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low 60’s.  Some areas near the immediate coastal may see lows in the middle 70’s.

Winds will be east southeast at 12 – 18 knots.  Seas will be 2 – 4 feet occasionally 5 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop to choppy in exposed areas.  Small Craft Operators should exercise caution except for Biscayne Bay.

At the middle and upper levels, the trough in the central U.S. lifts up and some de-amplification taking place.  A general southwest flow aloft along the eastern states becomes a more general zonal (west to east) flow aloft across the southern tier of states during the next couple of days.  A mid/upper level ridge in the eastern Pacific tracks toward the western U.S.  The ever persistent High in the Caribbean extends northeast into the Atlantic.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-21-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-21-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-23-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-23-14



A frontal system will move into the Florida panhandle early Friday and make only very little southward progression into the state becoming stationary in north Florida through the weekend as the flow aloft parallels the front.

WPC Forecast 2-21-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 2-21-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 2-22-14 (7:00 pm)

WPC Forecast 2-22-14 (7:00 pm)



With low level southeast winds bringing moisture in, and a slug of higher moisture from the south drawn northward plus the pooling of moisture along and ahead of the front, PWAT (Precipitable Water) will increase to around 1 ⅓” to 1 ½” on Friday into Saturday.  This will support the development of showers on Friday and Saturday.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 2-20-14(12z) at 033 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 2-20-14(12z) at 033 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 2-20-14(12z) at 060 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 2-20-14(12z) at 060 Hours



There will also be some decent dynamics/instability (CAPE around 700 – 1000, 500 mb temperatures around 10° C to – 11°C) and together with possible sea breeze convergence/interaction may be sufficient to promote the development of thunderstorms during the afternoon.  The NAM model is even more aggressive with the CAPE and at times has it around 1,500.   It appears that Friday will be the best day for the development of thunderstorms.  The main concern for the stronger thunderstorms may be the potential of some hail and gusty straight line winds.

By the end of the weekend, the front will be in further weakened state plus may have shifted further north.  There should be less in the way of showers and be further north.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 2-20-14(12z) at 081 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 2-20-14(12z) at 081 Hours

 

With additional surface moisture around due to the rains, fog may be more prevalent on Friday and Saturday nights.  But it will also depend on how much cloudiness there will be.  Current indications are that there may be some high cloudiness.  Also, winds will subside and may become variable to offshore Sunday night.  This may allow for the fog to develop closer to the metro and coastal areas especially Sunday night

 

For Friday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy with increase in cloudiness late on Friday.  There will be widely scattered to scattered showers with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms.  Highs will be around 80 to the middle 80’s. There may be patchy to areas of fog mainly inland late at night. Lows Friday night will be in the middle 60’s to low 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low 60’s.

Winds will be southeast to south southeast at 8 – 14 knots diminishing to 7 – 13 knots Friday night.  Seas will be 2 – 3 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light to moderate chop.

With an onshore wind, there will be at least a slight to possibly moderate risk of rip currents.  An update via twitter will be sent out on Friday with the rip current risk level.

For Saturday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy.  There may be some increase in cloudiness late on Saturday.  There will be widely scattered to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.  Highs will be around 80 to the middle 80’s. There may be patchy to areas of fog late at night. Lows Saturday night will be in the middle 60’s to low 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low 60’s.

Winds will be southeast and south southeast at 6 – 11 knots becoming east southeast to south southeast at 5 – 10 knots.  Seas will be around 2 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop.

With a light onshore wind, there may be a slight risk of rip currents.  An update via twitter sill be sent out as warranted on Saturday with the rip current risk level.

For Sunday, it will be sunny to partly sunny.  There will be some isolated showers.  Highs will be around 80 to the middle 80’s. There may be patchy to areas of fog late at night. Lows Sunday night will be in the middle 60’s to low 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s.

Winds will be south southeast at 5 – 11 knots becoming south southwest 5 – 9 knots Sunday night in Palm Beach County.  Seas will be around 2 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop.

 

Medium Range Outlook:

In the middle and upper levels, a ridge is along the U.S. west coast/western U.S.  A trough downstream is over the eastern U.S.  However, the trough only extends south into the southeast U.S.  Heights remain 582 DM plus range.  A ridge continues in the Caribbean.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-24-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-24-14

 

The frontal system that has been in the northern portion of the state will begin moving back southward as another front that moves into the southeast U.S. reinforces it.  The front moves into south Florida early next week but loses support for much further progress and becomes nearly stationary near south Florida during the early-middle portion of next week.

WPC Forecast 2-24-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 2-24-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 2-25-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 2-25-14 (7:00 am)



Depending on the placement of the front, the chance of showers may continue for early next week.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 2-20-14(12z) at 129 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 2-20-14(12z) at 129 Hours

 

 

Extended Range Outlook:

At the middle and upper levels, the ridge progresses further inland in the western U.S.  The trough downstream in the eastern U.S. amplifies southward.  Heights fall to below 582 DM (around 578 DM).

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-27-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-27-14

 

A wave/weak surface Low develops along the front.  As the Low moves northeast into the Atlantic, the trailing cold front will move southward around the middle of next week.

WPC Forecast 2-26-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 2-26-14 (7:00 am)

 

With the trough amplifying southward, there will be better support for the frontal system to move through south Florida around the middle-end of next week.

WPC Forecast 2-27-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 2-27-14 (7:00 am)

 

Current indications are that there will be little in the way of cooling as the colder air remains to the north.  Minimum temperatures look to be generally in the 60’s.

The GFS model indicates a surface Low may develop in the Gulf of Mexico late next week.  This feature then traverses eastward toward Florida bringing an increase chance of showers for the end of next week into portion of the following weekend.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 2-20-14(12z) at 192 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 2-20-14(12z) at 192 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 2-20-14(12z) at 216 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 2-20-14(12z) at 216 Hours



These are long range forecasts and susceptible to significant errors.

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

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Filed under: Southeast Florida Weather

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