Analysis:

For southeast Florida weather, during the day, it was sunny to partly sunny early in the day with periods of cloudiness during the afternoon.  Bands of showers with embedded thunderstorms began developing late morning and continued through the afternoon moving fairly swiftly to the east southeast and southeast through the region. Some of the activity became strong prompting the issuance of Weather Statements and Special Marine Warnings.

Highs today were mostly in the upper 80’s to low 90’s.  Heat indices ranged from the upper 90’s to low single 100’s.  Winds outside of showers were westerly at 10 – 20 mph with higher gusts.

The much anticipated front was located in central Florida this afternoon.

 

Southeast U.S. Surface Analysis (2:00 pm)

Southeast U.S. Surface Analysis (2:00 pm)

 

It is finally beginning to move southward during the day as a Low organizes east of Florida and it is forecast to move through south Florida this evening and overnight.

 

WPC Forecast 9-27-13 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 9-27-13 (8:00 am)

 

Much drier air aloft is barreling southward into Florida as the axis of the upper level trough moves east of the area.

 

Animated Water Vapor Imagery (Early Evening)

Animated Water Vapor Imagery (Early Evening)

 

At the low and middle levels, although moisture remained over the southern areas, drier air was advecting southward.  Note the low/middle level tight moisture gradient near central Florida.

 

Average Humidity / Steering Flow 850 mb to 650 mb (Evening)

Average Humidity / Steering Flow 850 mb to 650 mb (Evening)

 

 

 

Forecast:

For tonight, it will be partly cloudy.  There will be isolated to widely scattered showers mainly near the coast.  Lows will be in the low 70’s to upper 70’s.

Winds will be west northwest and northwest at 8 – 15 knots.  Seas will be 2 – 3 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light to moderate chop.

 

As the front continues south and clears the area by morning, drier air will continue moving in.  Dewpoint temperatures will lower and it will feel more comfortable.

As the Low east of Florida continues to organize and strengthen, some low level moisture will rotate into the region especially in the northern areas.  Over the weekend, it will be more pronounced, especially on Saturday.

 

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 9-26-13(12z) at 033 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 9-26-13(12z) at 033 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 9-26-13(12z) at 057 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 9-26-13(12z) at 057 Hours

 



Winds increase due to tightening pressure gradient between the Low and a High building south along the eastern U.S.  This may also setup convergent bands which may aid in the development of showers.  Though instability will less, a few thundershowers cannot be ruled out.

 

For Friday, it will be sunny to partly sunny.  There will be widely scattered showers.  Highs will be in the middle 80’s to near 90.  Lows will be around 70 to middle 70’s.

Winds will be north northwest and north at 10 – 15 knots.  Seas in Palm Beach County will range 2 – 3 feet near shore increasing to 2 – 4 feet Friday night.  Offshore, it will be 3 – 5 feet occasionally up to 6 feet and increase Friday night to 4 – 6 feet occasionally 8 feet.  For Miami-Dade and Broward County, seas will be 2 feet increasing 2 – 3 feet near shore and 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet increasing Friday night to 3 – 5 feet occasionally 6 feet.

For Saturday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy.  There will be scattered showers and isolated thundershowers.  Highs will be in the middle to upper 80’s.  Lows will be near 70 to middle 70’s.

Winds will be north and north northeast 11 – 17 knots.  Seas will be 2 – 5 feet near shore to 4 – 7 feet and up to 9 feet in the Gulf Stream.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light to moderate chop.  Small craft should exercise caution may be necessary for portions of the area.

With an onshore wind developing, there will be the risk of rip currents along the southeast Florida Atlantic beaches.  There will be at least a slight and possibly a moderate risk of rip currents.  An update via twitter will be sent if there is a change to the rip current risk level.

For Sunday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy.  There will be widely scattered to scattered showers and thundershowers.  Highs will be in the middle 80’s to upper 80’s.  Lows will be in the low 70’s to upper 70’s.

Winds will be northeast and east northeast at 5 – 12 knots.  Seas will be 2 – 5 feet occasionally up to 6 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop.

With an onshore wind, there will be the risk of rip currents along the southeast Florida Atlantic beaches.  There will be at least a slight and possibly a moderate risk of rip currents.  An update via twitter will be sent if there is a change to the rip current risk level.

 

As easterly winds deepen early next week, there will be the return of the easterly flow regime, i.e. afternoon and evening showers and thundershowers favoring the interior and western portions of south Florida and night and morning showers over eastern areas.

 

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 9-26-13(12z) at 105 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 9-26-13(12z) at 105 Hours

 

The front/trough that moved to the south may begin backing up northward into the area.

As mentioned few days, ago, the GFS forecast model has been indicating the development of a Low in the western Caribbean for the latter portion of the weekend into early next week.

 

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 9-26-13(12z) at 147 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 9-26-13(12z) at 147 Hours

 

 

The ECM model is also hinting on that idea.

If this occurs, the system will move on a general north motion.  This may bring an increase of moisture into the area during the middle/latter portion of next week.

 

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

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Filed under: Southeast Florida Weather

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