An area of showers and thunderstorms in advance of the cold front moves through the region overnight/early Saturday.
Cold front moves through on Saturday. Turning slightly cooler (not as warm) for Saturday night and into rest of the weekend. Drier air also filters in behind the front with decreasing chances of showers. Dewpoint temperatures fall into more comfortable 50’s and 60’s by later Saturday and rest of weekend.
With the drier air in place, dewpoint temperatures remain in the fairly comfortable 60’s for most of next week. Shower chances low for the week with skies mostly sunny to partly cloudy.
For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was partly cloudy to cloudy. Scattered showers affected portions of the area. A band of heavier showers and thunderstorms was in the Gulf of Mexico approaching west-central Florida. A few showers were in the Florida Straits.
Overnight lows were mostly in the low to middle 70’s at the metro and coastal areas to middle 60’s to around 70 further inland. Winds were light to at times moderate from the northeast and east.
During the day, it was sunny to partly sunny. Widely scattered showers affected portions of the area. Late in the afternoon, a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms had developed near Lake Okeechobee extending southward. Other showers and thunderstorms were further north.
High temperatures were in the low and middle 80’s with some areas reaching the upper 80’s. Winds were mostly southeasterly at around 15 mph and gusty as times.
Below is the U.S. surface analysis for late this afternoon.
Short Range Forecast:
For tonight, it will be partly to mostly cloudy. There will be good chance of showers. There will be isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms may be strong. Lows will be in the low to middle 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the upper 60’s to around 70.
At the middle and upper levels, by early in the weekend, a Low will move across north Florida followed by a short wave ridge which in turn is followed by a trough/Low in the Southwest U.S. With the Low near Florida, the High is shunted southward into the Caribbean and southern Mexico. These features place Florida in a cyclonic flow aloft. By the beginning of next week, the Low opens up as it moves east northeast into the Atlantic with the short wave ridge moving overhead. This in turn results in the flow aloft becoming anti-cyclonic over Florida. Following the ridge, there is a split flow pattern over the central U.S. with a trough migrating along the southern stream that moves into the southern Plains/Texas. With the Low exiting into the Atlantic, the High in the Caribbean builds/expands (588 DM plus) northward while being centered from the southern Gulf of Mexico into the western Caribbean.
A surface Low moves rather slowly overnight from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into north Florida. By Saturday afternoon, the Low will be near northeast Florida with a cold front extending southward along eastern Florida. The Low and front moves offshore of Florida by Saturday evening.
Ahead of the front, an area of showers and thunderstorms moves across the region overnight and into early Saturday.
500 mb temperatures of around -9°C are not as cold as depicted from previous day’s model runs (which had -10°C to -11°C). This may lower the chance of strong/severe thunderstorms. Additionally, since this is an overnight event, it will not be able to take advantage of daytime heating. The activity in the eastern Gulf of Mexico has been waning during the late afternoon. However, the short term HRRR forecast model at this evening’s run indicates that the activity may reinvigorate later tonight.
By later on Saturday, the associated activity will have moved offshore.
Clouds will diminish during the course of the day. Temperatures will not be as warm with the passage of the front. Drier air filters in behind the front. Dewpoint temperatures fall into the more comfortable 50’s and 60’s later on Saturday and rest of the weekend. Shower chances will also diminish.
A low level/surface trough moves through the region on Sunday night/Monday.
The GFS model depicts some cloudiness with the chance of showers for Monday.
For Saturday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy early with decreasing clouds later in the day becoming partly sunny to partly cloudy. There will scattered to good chance of showers early. There may also be isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms early. Some thunderstorms may be strong. Highs will be in the middle 80’s. Lows Saturday night will be in the low 60’s to upper 60’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the upper 50’s to around 60.
For Easter, it will be sunny. Highs will be around 80 to the low 80’s. Lows Sunday night will be in the middle and upper 60’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows around 70.
For Monday, it will be partly sunny. There may be isolated to widely scattered showers. Highs will be around 80 to the middle 80’s. Lows Monday night will be in the middle 60’s to around 70. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the upper 50’s to the low 60’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows in the low 70’s.
Medium Range Outlook:
In the middle and upper levels, by the middle of next week, the flow aloft becomes more amplified. The trough near Texas migrates into the eastern U.S. while phasing with the northern stream, resulting in a more cyclonic flow aloft over the eastern U.S. Another trough moves into the western U.S. with a ridge in the central U.S. With the trough in the eastern U.S., the High in the Caribbean is displaced further south.
The weather remains essentially dry for the early to middle of next week. There may be a frontal system moving through the middle of the week, but is forecast to be a dry front.
Slight below normal temperatures will rise to normal to slightly above normal range into the middle of next week.
Extended Range Outlook:
At the middle and upper levels, with the departure of the trough in the eastern U.S., the upper level flow de-amplified somewhat with ridges over the eastern and western U.S. and a trough in the central U.S. The High in the Caribbean is able to shift back northward with Florida and the southern tier of states more in a zonal (west to east) flow aloft.
Toward the end of the week, the low level winds become more easterly. This will allow for moisture to increase. With daytime heating and possible sea breeze interaction, showers may develop in the interior sections. The activity should stay mostly in the inland and western portion of south Florida with this regime.
Temperatures will rise further and remain little above normal for the end of next week.
The GFS model brings another weak front into the region early the following week. This may lead to increase chance of showers.
Below is the 6 – 10 Day Temperature Outlook which depicts above normal temperatures for most of the southern tier of States with below normal temperatures for portions of the northern tier of States and California.
Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.