Southeast Florida Weather Outlook (4-23-14)

Beach_Image100

 

Overview

 

Generally tranquil weather continues for the week and into the weekend with sunny to partly sunny conditions. There may be some isolated showers in the northern portion on Thursday with little better chance on Friday before diminishing early in the weekend.

Temperatures will rise to above normal levels.

May see some isolated showers again on Sunday. May see increase chance of showers for early next week and especially into the middle of next week as a front approaches.

 

 

Analysis

 

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was clear to partly cloudy with some areas reporting cloudy conditions at times. There was a weak band of light showers well offshore and moving further away.

 

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

Overnight lows were generally in the middle and upper 60’s with some areas further inland in the upper 50’s to the low 60’s. Winds were variable to west and northwest at light speeds with periods of calm

During the day, it was sunny. Clouds were limited as there was less of an inversion which allowed for better mixing and also allowed for drier air at the upper levels to mix down.

 

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

 

Below is the animated Water Vapor imagery depicting dry air (brown shading) overspreading Florida.  The milky shading represents higher moisture.

Animated Water Vapor Imagery (Afternoon)

Animated Water Vapor Imagery (Afternoon)

 

High temperatures were mostly in the low to middle 80’s with a few areas reaching the upper 80’s. Light and variable to westerly winds became onshore along the metro/coastal areas by the middle to late afternoon.

Below is the U.S. surface analysis for late this afternoon.

U.S. Surface Analysis (Late Afternoon)

U.S. Surface Analysis
(Late Afternoon)

 

Upper level drier air mixed in to lower levels resulting in less overall moisture. This lowered dewpoint temperatures to mostly in the middle 50’s to low 60’s for a large portion of south Florida.

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

 

 

Forecast

 

Short Range Forecast:

For tonight, it will be clear to partly cloudy. Lows will be in the middle 60’s to around 70. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade County may see lows in the low 70’s.  There may be some late night/early morning fog mainly in the interior.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

 

At the middle and upper levels, for Thursday, a subtle trough approaches Florida from the Gulf of Mexico underneath a ridge approaching the eastern U.S. A High in the central Caribbean builds to 588 DM plus. The ridge in the eastern U.S. is followed by a trough in the central U.S. and weak ridging in the western U.S. with a Low/trough approaching the Northwest U.S. coast. The subtle trough crosses Florida on Thursday and moves east of the area by Friday.  By the beginning of the weekend will have exited into the Atlantic with a negative tilted ridge approaching the eastern U.S. The ridge is followed by a Low moving into the Southwest U.S. This Low will be responsible for severe weather to breakout for portions of the Central U.S. and points east for the weekend and into early next week. Although the flow aloft will be generally zonal (west to east) over Florida, there will be minor undulations as features move across.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-24-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-24-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-26-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-26-14



A weak cold front near the Florida/Georgia border progresses slowly southward reaching central Florida on Thursday while weakening further and dissipating.

WPC Forecast 4-24-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 4-24-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 4-24-14 (2:00 pm)

WPC Forecast 4-24-14 (2:00 pm)



Surface High pressure to the north of the front “bridges” over it and as it moves into the Atlantic, east and southeast winds develop. This will allow for some low level moisture to work into the region.

May see the development of fog late Thursday night/early Friday morning mainly in the interior areas.

With daytime heating and sea breeze interaction plus the proximity of the decaying front and a subtle upper trough moving through on Thursday, it may be sufficient to generate some shower activity.  The GFS model has backed off on shower chances for the northern portion of the area for Thursday and it looks isolated at best and most likely in the interior.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-23-14(12z) at 033 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-23-14(12z) at 033 Hours

 

There is a better chance for showers on Friday, but it appears to be most numerous near coastal areas.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-23-14(12z) at 051 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-23-14(12z) at 051 Hours

 

By Saturday, deep layer ridging will be in control leaving the area mainly dry with sunny to partly sunny conditions.

 

For Thursday, it will be sunny to partly sunny. There may be an isolated shower mostly in the northern portion. Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s. Some areas may reach the upper 80’s mainly in the interior areas. Lows Thursday night will be in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low to middle 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

For Friday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy. There may be isolated to widely scattered showers. Highs will be in the low 80’s to upper 80’s. Lows Friday night will be in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around the middle 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

For Saturday, it will be sunny to partly sunny. Highs will be in the low 80’s to the upper 80’s. Lows Saturday night will be around 70 to the middle 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the middle 60’s to upper 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

 

Medium Range Outlook:

In the middle and upper levels, by the beginning of next week, a ridge moves into the eastern U.S. with Florida in a general zonal flow aloft. The flow aloft becomes more amplified across the U.S. with the Low in the Southwest U.S. slowly moving eastward into the Central U.S.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-28-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-28-14

 

A weak frontal system moves into the southeast U.S. during the weekend dissipating while progressing southward. With the proximity of the dissipating front plus daytime heating and sea breeze interaction, it may be enough to generate some shower activity for Sunday. With the low level wind regime, the activity will be most numerous inland and the western portion of south Florida.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-23-14(12z) at 105 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-23-14(12z) at 105 Hours

 

The chance of showers may continue into Monday, but may shift further north as the wind flow becomes more southerly.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-23-14(12z) at 129 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-23-14(12z) at 129 Hours

 

 

Extended Range Outlook:

At the middle and upper levels, the flow aloft becomes highly amplified across the U.S. by the middle of next week. A Low slowly approaches the eastern U.S. with a ridge in the western U.S. The flow aloft becomes increasingly cyclonic over the eastern U.S. and Florida.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-30-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-30-14

 

A more active cold front approaches the Florida panhandle on Tuesday and moves slowly into north Florida on Wednesday.

WPC Forecast 4-30-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 4-30-14 (8:00 am)

 

The GFS model indicates a chance of showers on Tuesday and even better chance on Wednesday. The activity looks to be more numerous Tuesday in the northern portion and Wednesday be more widespread.  There is also the possibility of thunderstorms.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-23-14(12z) at 153 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-23-14(12z) at 153 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-23-14(12z) at 177 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-23-14(12z) at 177 Hours



There are timing differences with this front as the ECMWF model is about a half day slower with the frontal movement. The GFS model than has the front moving through on Thursday.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-23-14(12z) at 192 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-23-14(12z) at 192 Hours

 

With passage of the frontal system, cooler and drier air filters in behind the system.

 

As mentioned on Monday’s post, temperatures longer term are forecast to fall to below normal levels as anomalous lower heights occur over the eastern U.S. as a high amplitude trough/Low sets up in the eastern U.S. Below is the 8 – 14 Day Forecast Temperature Outlook.

8 – 14 Day Temperature Outlook

8 – 14 Day Temperature Outlook

 

Below is the GFS 500 mb Height/Anomaly Forecast for day 8 and 11.

GFS 500 mb Height/Anomaly Forecast Day 8

GFS 500 mb Height/Anomaly Forecast Day 8

GFS 500 mb Height/Anomaly Forecast Day 11

GFS 500 mb Height/Anomaly Forecast Day 11



Something that has not been seen often this season that 3 climate indices (positive PNA, negative AO and negative NAO) are in sync suggesting below normal temperatures for the eastern U.S. Additionally, the West NAO (sub-category of the NAO) gives further support for cooler/colder weather driving further south into the U.S.  Click here for additional information on the indices.

Forecast PNA Index 4-23-14 (12z) (source: raleighwx.americanwx.com)

Forecast PNA Index 4-23-14 (12z)
(source: raleighwx.americanwx.com)

Forecast AO Index 4-23-14 (12z) (source: raleighwx.americanwx.com)

Forecast AO Index 4-23-14 (12z)
(source: raleighwx.americanwx.com)

Forecast NAO Index 4-23-14 (12z) (source: raleighwx.americanwx.com)

Forecast NAO Index 4-23-14 (12z)
(source: raleighwx.americanwx.com)

Forecast NAO-West Index 4-23-14 (12z) (source: raleighwx.americanwx.com)

Forecast NAO-West Index 4-23-14 (12z)
(source: raleighwx.americanwx.com)



Obviously, it is late in the season and there will not be cold air this far south, but temperatures are forecast to be below normal for this time of year.

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

Southeast Florida Weather Outlook (4-22-14)

Beach_Image100

 

Overview

 

Generally tranquil weather continues for the week with sunny to partly sunny conditions.

Near normal temperatures will rise to above normal temperatures toward the end of the week.

May see little better chance of showers Thursday and Friday.

Decrease chance of showers for the weekend. Possible increased chance of showers for early to middle of next week as a more active front approaches.

 

 

Analysis

 

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was generally clear to partly cloudy. There was some cloudiness at times mainly in portions of Palm Beach County as an area of enhanced cloudiness and band of showers developed just offshore the southeast Florida coast. The activity was generally moving southward with some propagation toward shore.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

 

Minimum temperatures were in the middle and upper 60’s at the metro and coastal areas to upper 50’s to low 60’s further inland. A few areas well inland in Palm Beach County were in the middle 50’s. Winds were variable to northwest and north with periods of calm especially over the interior.

During the day, a few light showers affected portions of the coastal areas early this morning mainly in Broward County before dissipating/moving further away. The rest of the day was mostly sunny to partly sunny. Some areas had additional cloudiness especially near coastal areas. A couple of inversion layers at about the 800 mb level and below trapped some low level moisture making it more difficult for some of the clouds to dissipate/mix-out. Additionally, as the sea breeze front moved inland, there was some enhancement to clouds.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

Radar Animation of Sea Breeze Front

Radar Animation of Sea Breeze Front (Afternoon)

Radar Animation of Sea Breeze Front (Evening)

Radar Animation of Sea Breeze Front (Evening)



High temperatures were mostly around 80 to the middle 80’s with some areas reaching the upper 80’s. Winds were light and variable to west/northwest. By middle to late afternoon, an onshore wind developed along the coastal/metro areas.

Below is the U.S. surface analysis for late this afternoon.

U.S. Surface Analysis (Late Afternoon)

U.S. Surface Analysis
(Late Afternoon)

 

Dewpoint temperatures were generally in the 60’s with pockets of middle and upper 50’s over portions of the area.

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

 

 

Forecast

 

Short Range Forecast:

For tonight, it will be partly cloudy. Lows will be in the middle and upper 60’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows around 70.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

 

At the middle and upper levels, for the middle of this week, a trough will pass by to the north followed by a ridge in the central U.S. with another trough moving into the western U.S. The flow aloft will be weakly cyclonic to zonal (west to east) becoming weakly anti-cyclonic for a period of time over Florida. By the end of the week, the ridge in the central U.S. moves east toward the eastern U.S.  The flow aloft becomes nearly zonal across the southern tier of states with ripples of troughs and ridges across the northern tier of states (T/R/T/R from east to west).  The High in the Caribbean remains rather suppressed well south.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-23-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-23-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-25-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-25-14



A weak front moves into north Florida on Wednesday.

WPC Forecast 4-23-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 4-23-14 (8:00 am)

 

As the front moves slowly south, it weakens further and essentially dissipates as it moves down the peninsula on Thursday.

WPC Forecast 4-24-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 4-24-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 4-24-14 (8:00 pm)

WPC Forecast 4-24-14 (8:00 pm)



Surface High behind the front moves into the Atlantic resulting in winds veering to the east and southeast. This will bring some low level moisture into the region. Additionally, remnants of the front plus daytime heating and sea breeze interaction may be sufficient for chance of showers on Thursday (more likely in the northern portion) and Friday.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-22-14(12z) at 057 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-22-14(12z) at 057 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-22-14(12z) at 078 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-22-14(12z) at 078 Hours



For Wednesday, it will be sunny. Highs will be around 80 to the middle 80’s. Lows Wednesday night will be in the middle 60’s to around 70. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

For Thursday, it will be sunny to partly sunny. There may be isolated to widely scattered showers mainly in the northern portion. Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s. Some areas in the interior may reach the upper 80’s. Lows Thursday night will be in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the middle 60’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows in the middle 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

For Friday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy. There may be widely scattered showers. Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s. Some areas may reach the upper 80’s. Lows Friday night will be around 70 to the low 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the middle and upper 60’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows in the middle 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

 

Medium Range Outlook:

In the middle and upper levels, toward the end of the weekend, the flow aloft becomes more amplified with a ridge moving toward the eastern U.S. and a trough/Low moving into the west-central U.S. The flow aloft over Florida is nearly zonal to weak anti-cyclonic.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-27-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-27-14

 

Most of the weekend looks to be pleasant with mostly sunny to partly sunny conditions. Temperatures will be above normal.

Another weak front (backdoor front) moves into north Florida over the weekend.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-22-14(12z) at 123 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-22-14(12z) at 123 Hours

 

With the dissipating front to the north and just enough moisture with daytime heating plus sea breeze interaction, it may be sufficient to generate some showers mainly in the interior on Sunday.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-22-14(12z) at 129 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-22-14(12z) at 129 Hours

 

 

 

Extended Range Outlook:

At the middle and upper levels, the more amplified setup continues with slow forward progression into early next week with the ridge moving to near the U.S. east coast and the trough/Low closing off as it moves into the central U.S. The High in the Caribbean changes little. The flow aloft remains nearly zonal to slightly anti-cyclonic but appears to transition to more cyclonic flow later as the Low continues to advance eastward.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-29-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-29-14

 

A more active frontal system moves into the Florida panhandle on Tuesday.

WPC Forecast 4-29-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 4-29-14 (8:00 am)

 

This may bring a better chance of showers possibly  beginning around Tuesday, but more likely on Wednesday.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-22-14(12z) at 177 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-22-14(12z) at 177 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-22-14(12z) at 204 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-22-14(12z) at 204 Hours



The GFS model shows the front approaching south Florida later Wednesday/Thursday with increasing chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-22-14(12z) at 216 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-22-14(12z) at 216 Hours

 

 

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

Southeast Florida Weather Outlook (4-21-14)

Beach_Image100

 

Overview

 

Mostly tranquil weather for the week with sunny to partly sunny conditions.  Slightly to near normal temperatures will rise to above normal temperatures toward the end of the week.

May see slightly better chance of showers Thursday and Friday.

Decrease chance of showers for the weekend, into early the following week.

 

Analysis

 

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was generally clear to partly cloudy. A few light showers developed over the coastal waters with the most activity offshore Miami-Dade County coast/upper Florida Keys and a more enhanced band north of the northern Bahamas.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

 

Overnight minimums were generally around 60 to the low 60’s with the coastal areas of Miami-Dade County into the middle 60’s. Areas further inland were in the middle and upper 50’s. Winds were light northwest and north.

During the day, it was mostly sunny to partly sunny. There were a few showers offshore, primarily from Palm Beach County northward to central Florida.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

 

Some smoke was occurring over portions of the region late this afternoon. Below is a radar image (4:52 pm) of smoke detected on radar that was tweeted out by the Miami NWS.

Radar Image of Smoke

Radar Image of Smoke

 

High temperatures were mostly in the upper 70’s to the low 80’s. Winds were mostly light northwest and north to variable at times for most of the day with an northeast onshore flow developing along the coastal and metro areas late in the afternoon.

A well pronounced sea breeze front developed during the afternoon and moved west-southwestward across portions of the tri-county area as depicted by animated radar below. There was some enhanced cloudiness along portions of this boundary.

Radar Animation of Sea Breeze Front

Radar Animation of Sea Breeze Front

 

Below is the U.S. surface analysis for late this afternoon.

U.S. Surface Analysis (Late Afternoon)

U.S. Surface Analysis
(Late Afternoon)

 

With fairly dry air over the region, dewpoint temperatures were mostly in the comfortable 60’s with portions of the area in the middle and upper 50’s.

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

 

 

Forecast

 

Short Range Forecast:

For tonight, it will be clear to partly cloudy. Lows will be in the middle and upper 60’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade County may see lows around 70.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

There is a Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas in effect for the coastal waters except Biscayne Bay.

 

At the middle and upper levels, the Low that affected Florida over the weekend will have moved into the western Atlantic, east of the Mid-Atlantic States by Tuesday leaving Florida and the Southeast U.S. in a rather zonal (west to east) flow aloft. A weak trough does swing by the southeast U.S. early in the week that temporarily disrupts the zonal flow. A ridge is in the Central U.S. with a Low/trough moving into the western U.S. The High in the Caribbean is displaced well south across southern Mexico. Toward the end of the week, with the departure of the Low, the High shifts northward near the western Caribbean. A ridge moves into the eastern U.S. followed by a trough in the central U.S. The flow aloft is generally zonal to slightly anti-cyclonic over Florida and more pronounced over the eastern U.S.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-22-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-22-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-24-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-24-14



With deep layered ridging (surface and aloft) in place near/over the region, there will be rather tranquil weather for the next few days.

A cold front associated with the upper level trough moves into north Florida mid-week.

WPC Forecast 4-23-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 4-23-14 (8:00 am)

 

With little support, the front makes little forward progression where it stalls and essentially dissipates near central/north Florida.

A surface High to the north of the front bridges the front with an east to southeast wind flow developing toward the end of the week as the High shifts into the Atlantic. As this occurs, moisture increases. There may be enough moisture to generate some shower activity. Daytime heating and possible sea breeze interaction may aid in the development. With a southeast flow pattern, the activity will be more focused inland.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-21-14(12z) at 081 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-21-14(12z) at 081 Hours

 

Temperatures will be slightly to near normal becoming above normal toward the end of the week.

 

For Tuesday, it will be sunny to partly sunny. There may be some high cloudiness. Highs will be around 80 to the low 80’s. Lows Tuesday night will be in the middle 60’s to near 70. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

For Wednesday, it will be sunny to partly sunny. Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s. Some of the coastal areas may be near 80. Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low to the middle 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

For Thursday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs will be in the low to the middle 80’s. Some areas may reach the upper 80’s in the interior. Lows Thursday night will be in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the middle 60’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows in the middle 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

 

Medium Range Outlook:

In the middle and upper levels, for the beginning of the weekend, the zonal flow aloft continues over Florida with hint of cyclonic flow as the trough in the Central U.S. migrates into the eastern U.S. followed by a ridge in the central U.S. The ridge is followed by a trough in the western U.S.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-26-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-26-14

 

The chance of showers continues into Friday with sufficient moisture over the region.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-21-14(12z) at 081 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-21-14(12z) at 081 Hours

 

The GFS model shows a front moving into the southeast U.S./north Florida for next weekend which does not move much further south and moves east north of the region with little fanfare.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-21-14(12z) at 153 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-21-14(12z) at 153 Hours

 

Currently it appears that weather for the weekend will be fairly settled with little (if any) in the way of showers.

 

Extended Range Outlook:

At the middle and upper levels, early next week, there is a ridge is in the eastern U.S. with zonal to anti-cyclonic flow over the Southeast U.S. and Florida. A Low/trough moves into the central U.S. with a stronger Low approaching the Northwest U.S. The High in the Caribbean does not change much.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-28-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-28-14

 

With the upper ridge moving into the eastern U.S., the weather remains settled into early next week. Moisture increases into the middle of the week, leading to better chance of showers.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-21-14(12z) at 216 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-21-14(12z) at 216 Hours

 

Looking further out, the GFS shows a more active frontal/surface Low system affecting the region toward the end of the following week with better chances of showers.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-21-14(12z) at 240 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-21-14(12z) at 240 Hours

 

This is over a week away and is subject to significant errors.

Temperatures in the extended period look be normal to possibly below normal as a trough sets up in the eastern U.S. (with below normal heights) with a ridge in the western U.S.

8 – 14 Day Temperature Outlook

8 – 14 Day Temperature Outlook

Average 500 mb Flow 8 – 14 Day Period

Average 500 mb Flow 8 – 14 Day Period



 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

 

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