Southeast Florida Weather Outlook (4-18-14)

Beach_Image100

 

Overview

 

An area of showers and thunderstorms in advance of the cold front moves through the region overnight/early Saturday.

Cold front moves through on Saturday.  Turning slightly cooler (not as warm) for Saturday night and into rest of the weekend.  Drier air also filters in behind the front with decreasing chances of showers.  Dewpoint temperatures fall into more comfortable 50’s and 60’s by later Saturday and rest of weekend.

With the drier air in place, dewpoint temperatures remain in the fairly comfortable 60’s for most of next week. Shower chances low for the week with skies mostly sunny to partly cloudy.

Analysis

 

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was partly cloudy to cloudy.  Scattered showers affected portions of the area.  A band of heavier showers and thunderstorms was in the Gulf of Mexico approaching west-central Florida.  A few showers were in the Florida Straits.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

 

Overnight lows were mostly in the low to middle 70’s at the metro and coastal areas to middle 60’s to around 70 further inland.  Winds were light to at times moderate from the northeast and east.

During the day, it was sunny to partly sunny.  Widely scattered showers affected portions of the area.  Late in the afternoon, a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms had developed near Lake Okeechobee extending southward.  Other showers and thunderstorms were further north.

 

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

 

High temperatures were in the low and middle 80’s with some areas reaching the upper 80’s.  Winds were mostly southeasterly at around 15 mph and gusty as times.

Below is the U.S. surface analysis for late this afternoon.

U.S. Surface Analysis (Late Afternoon)

U.S. Surface Analysis
(Late Afternoon)

 

 

Forecast

 

Short Range Forecast:

For tonight, it will be partly to mostly cloudy.  There will be good chance of showers.  There will be isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms.  Some of the thunderstorms may be strong.  Lows will be in the low to middle 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the upper 60’s to around 70.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

 

At the middle and upper levels, by early in the weekend, a Low will move across north Florida followed by a short wave ridge which in turn is followed by a trough/Low in the Southwest U.S.  With the Low near Florida, the High is shunted southward into the Caribbean and southern Mexico.  These features place Florida in a cyclonic flow aloft.  By the beginning of next week, the Low opens up as it moves east northeast into the Atlantic with the short wave ridge moving overhead.  This in turn results in the flow aloft becoming anti-cyclonic over Florida.  Following the ridge, there is a split flow pattern over the central U.S. with a trough migrating along the southern stream that moves into the southern Plains/Texas.  With the Low exiting into the Atlantic, the High in the Caribbean builds/expands (588 DM plus) northward while being centered from the southern Gulf of Mexico into the western Caribbean.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-19-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-19-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-21-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-21-14



A surface Low moves rather slowly overnight from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into north Florida.  By Saturday afternoon, the Low will be near northeast Florida with a cold front extending southward along eastern Florida.  The Low and front moves offshore of Florida by Saturday evening.

WPC Forecast 4-19-14 (2:00 pm)

WPC Forecast 4-19-14 (2:00 pm)

WPC Forecast 4-19-14 (8:00 pm)

WPC Forecast 4-19-14 (8:00 pm)



Ahead of the front, an area of showers and thunderstorms moves across the region overnight and into early Saturday.

500 mb temperatures of around -9°C are not as cold as depicted from previous day’s model runs (which had -10°C to -11°C).  This may lower the chance of strong/severe thunderstorms.  Additionally, since this is an overnight event, it will not be able to take advantage of daytime heating.  The activity in the eastern Gulf of Mexico has been waning during the late afternoon.   However, the short term HRRR forecast model at this evening’s run indicates that the activity may reinvigorate later tonight.

HRRR Model 4-18-14(21z) Forecast at 9 pm

HRRR Model 4-18-14(21z) Forecast at 9 pm (4-18-14)

HRRR Model 4-18-14(21z) Forecast at 5 am (4-19-14)

HRRR Model 4-18-14(21z) Forecast at 5 am (4-19-14)



By later on Saturday, the associated activity will have moved offshore.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-18-14(12z) at 033 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-18-14(12z) at 033 Hours

 

Clouds will diminish during the course of the day.  Temperatures will not be as warm with the passage of the front.  Drier air filters in behind the front.  Dewpoint temperatures fall into the more comfortable 50’s and 60’s later on Saturday and rest of the weekend.   Shower chances will also diminish.

A low level/surface trough moves through the region on Sunday night/Monday.

WPC Forecast 4-20-14 (8:00 pm)

WPC Forecast 4-20-14 (8:00 pm)

 

The GFS model depicts some cloudiness with the chance of showers for Monday.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-18-14(12z) at 081 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-18-14(12z) at 081 Hours

 

 

For Saturday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy early with decreasing clouds later in the day becoming partly sunny to partly cloudy.  There will scattered to good chance of showers early.  There may also be isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms early.  Some thunderstorms may be strong.  Highs will be in the middle 80’s.  Lows Saturday night will be in the low 60’s to upper 60’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the upper 50’s to around 60.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

For Easter, it will be sunny.  Highs will be around 80 to the low 80’s.  Lows Sunday night will be in the middle and upper 60’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s.  Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows around 70.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

For Monday, it will be partly sunny.  There may be isolated to widely scattered showers. Highs will be around 80 to the middle 80’s.  Lows Monday night will be in the middle 60’s to around 70.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the upper 50’s to the low 60’s.  Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows in the low 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

 

Medium Range Outlook:

In the middle and upper levels, by the middle of next week, the flow aloft becomes more amplified.  The trough near Texas migrates into the eastern U.S. while phasing with the northern stream, resulting in a more cyclonic flow aloft over the eastern U.S.  Another trough moves into the western U.S. with a ridge in the central U.S.  With the trough in the eastern U.S., the High in the Caribbean is displaced further south.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-23-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-23-14

 

The weather remains essentially dry for the early to middle of next week.  There may be a frontal system moving through the middle of the week, but is forecast to be a dry front.

WPC Forecast 4-24-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 4-24-14 (8:00 am)

 

Slight below normal temperatures will rise to normal to slightly above normal range into the middle of next week.

 

Extended Range Outlook:

At the middle and upper levels, with the departure of the trough in the eastern U.S., the upper level flow de-amplified somewhat with ridges over the eastern and western U.S. and a trough in the central U.S.  The High in the Caribbean is able to shift back northward with Florida and the southern tier of states more in a zonal (west to east) flow aloft.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-25-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-25-14

 

Toward the end of the week, the low level winds become more easterly.  This will allow for moisture to increase.  With daytime heating and possible sea breeze interaction, showers may develop in the interior sections.  The activity should stay mostly in the inland and western portion of south Florida with this regime.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-18-14(12z) at 177 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-18-14(12z) at 177 Hours

 

Temperatures will rise further and remain little above normal for the end of next week.

The GFS model brings another weak front into the region early the following week.  This may lead to increase chance of showers.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-18-14(12z) at 240 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-18-14(12z) at 240 Hours

 

Below is the 6 – 10 Day Temperature Outlook which depicts above normal temperatures for most of the southern tier of States with below normal temperatures for portions of the northern tier of States and California.

6 – 10 Day Temperature Outlook

6 – 10 Day Temperature Outlook

 

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

Southeast Florida Weather Outlook (4-16-14)

Beach_Image100

 

Overview

 

Front moves back northward overnight into Thursday leading to increasing showers and thunderstorms overnight into the end of the week.  There is the potential for some strong thunderstorms.

Front heads back southward through the region during Saturday leading to improving weather after passage.  Somewhat cooler (less warm) and drier air moves later in the weekend and early next week.

 

Analysis

 

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was partly cloudy to cloudy with some decrease in clouds late.  Some areas reported fog.  A band of showers moving southeast developed offshore the southeast Florida coast as the weak cold front was moving through the region.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

 

Minimum temperatures were generally in the upper 60’s to low 70’s with middle 60’s further inland.  Winds were light southwest and west in advance of the front becoming northwest behind the front.

During the day, it was partly sunny to partly cloudy early with intermittent cloudiness during the day.  By late afternoon/evening, it was mostly partly cloudy to cloudy.  The band of showers with isolated thunderstorms moved further offshore the southeast coast before becoming nearly stationary with the activity dissipating.  A few showers were developing late in the afternoon/evening over portions of south Florida.  There was quite a bit of false radar returns attributable to CHAF.

 

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

 

High temperatures today were in the upper 70’s to low 80’s with some areas reaching the middle 80’s where there was more sunshine.  Winds were northeasterly mostly in the 10 – 15 mph range.

Late this afternoon, the front that moved through the region earlier today had become stationary in the Florida Keys/Florida Straits.  Below is the U.S. surface analysis for late this afternoon.

U.S. Surface Analysis (Late Afternoon)

U.S. Surface Analysis
(Late Afternoon)

 

Drier air moved over the region behind the front.  However, with the front stalling just to the south, some moisture remained over the region.  There was a fairly sharp dewpoint temperature gradient across south Florida with the front nearby.  Dewpoint temperatures were around 70 to the low 70’s over the extreme south into the Florida Straits to around 60 over the northern and interior areas.

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

 

High cirrus clouds over portions of Florida today produced spectacular halo around the sun in Orlando and Tampa.

Halo Around Sun at Orlando

Halo Around Sun at Orlando

Halo Around Sun at Tampa

Halo Around Sun at Tampa



 

Forecast

 

Short Range Forecast:

For tonight, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy.  There will be scattered showers.  Lows will be in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low to middle 60’s.  Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows in the middle 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

 

At the middle and upper levels, toward the end of the week, a rather broad trough sets up in the central U.S. with a ridge in the western U.S.  A High is also over the western Atlantic.  This places Florida in a southwest wind flow aloft.  By early in the weekend, the trough/Low moves eastward into the eastern U.S. and Florida while separation takes place between the northern and southern streams with the Low closing off near north/central Florida.  The trough is followed by a ridge in the east-central U.S. with a trough in the western U.S.  With the trough moving into the eastern U.S./Florida, the High in the Atlantic is shunted back south and west into the Caribbean.  The flow aloft over Florida becomes cyclonic.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-17-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-17-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-19-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-19-14



The front that moved through early today has become stationary across the Florida Straits.  The front is forecast to retreat back northward tonight into Thursday.  This will result in increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight into Thursday.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-16-14(12z) at 033 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-16-14(12z) at 033 Hours

 

With easterly low level winds, activity appears to be more numerous over the interior areas with the possibility to move back toward the coastal areas later in the day with a more southwest flow aloft and possible outflows generating additional development.  Also, as the front moves north, activity may be focused near the front.

Moisture levels will remain above normal through the short term period with PWAT in the 1 ½” – 1 ¾” range. With these values, there could be some locally heavy rains.

Depending on how much sunshine there is, daytime heating with possible development of sea breeze may aid/enhance development of showers and thunderstorms.

With 500 mb temperatures rather cold at around -11°C (at times around -12°C) through the end of the week, it may also contribute with the development of thunderstorms with the potential for some strong thunderstorms.  The negating factor may be the possibility of more limited daytime heating due to cloudiness.  The primary impacts will be locally heavy rain and frequent lightning with some of the stronger activity associated with strong gusty winds.  Cannot rule out the possibility of hail with these temperatures. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has placed portions of south and central Florida (inland and western) under slight risk of severe thunderstorms for Thursday.

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook

 

By Friday, the warm front will be in central/north Florida with a surface Low developing in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

WPC Forecast 4-18-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 4-18-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 4-18-14 (8:00 pm)

WPC Forecast 4-18-14 (8:00 pm)



This will continue with the chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-16-14(12z) at 057 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-16-14(12z) at 057 Hours

 

There may be the possibility for more widespread activity for Friday/Friday night.  The combination of the surface Low and upper Low near north/central Florida on Friday (with associated pool of cold air aloft) may also make it ripe for the potential for active weather with the possibility of some strong thunderstorms.  Currently, the SPC has the Florida peninsula at a 5% risk for severe thunderstorms for Friday/Friday night.

SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook

SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook

 

This may change as future model runs are evaluated for the potential of severe weather.

The surface Low and cold front moves across north Florida Friday Night/Saturday.  The GFS model in today’s runs delays the passage of the front until later on Saturday which is closer to what the ECMWF model has been advertising the past few days.  The WPC (Weather Prediction Center) has the front across south Florida Sunday morning.

WPC Forecast 4-20-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 4-20-14 (8:00 am)

 

This may keep the chance of showers (and possibly thunderstorms) ongoing into portion of Saturday.

 

For Thursday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy.  There will be a good chance of showers.  There will be widely to scattered thunderstorms.  Activity most numerous in the interior and northern portion.  Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s.  Lows Thursday night will be in the upper 60’s to the middle 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low to middle 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

For Friday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy.  There will be good chance to likely showers and thunderstorms.  Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s.  Lows will be in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around the middle 60’s.  Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows in the middle 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

For Saturday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy.  There will be widely scattered to scattered showers.  It will be breezy.  Highs will be in the middle and upper 80’s.  Lows Saturday night will be in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around the low 60’s to the middle 60’s.  Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade County may see lows in the middle 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

 

Medium Range Outlook:

In the middle and upper levels, by the beginning of next week, the closed Low near Florida moves east/northeast into the western Atlantic while weakening.  The High in the Caribbean shifts further westward into the southwest Gulf of Mexico while building to 588 DM plus.  The flow aloft de-amplifies becoming more zonal (west to east) across the U.S. with some ripples along the flow.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-21-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-21-14

 

Conditions look to improve for the latter portion of the weekend with the weakening frontal system having moved further away.

WPC Forecast 4-21-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 4-21-14 (8:00 am)

 

However, as the frontal system moves away, winds veer quickly to the northeast.  This keeps some moisture over the region.  This may be sufficient moisture for the development of showers on Sunday as there may be some convergence taking place.  Additionally, there may also be some wrap around moisture behind the departing surface Low.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-16-14(12z) at 105 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-16-14(12z) at 105 Hours

 

This may continue into the beginning of next week.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-16-14(12z) at 126 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-16-14(12z) at 126 Hours

 

The activity does not appear to be widespread at this juncture, but more widely scattered in nature.

 

Extended Range Outlook:

At the middle and upper levels, by the middle of next week, the flow aloft becomes more amplified with a trough along the eastern U.S. seaboard and the western U.S. with a ridge in the central U.S.  This places the eastern U.S. and Florida in a cyclonic flow aloft transitioning to anti-cyclonic flow.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-23-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-23-14

 

By early next week, further drying takes place and low level winds become more easterly.  PWAT decrease to below normal, around 1” on Tuesday and to around ¾” in the middle of the week.  This will lead to lower chances of showers.

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

Southeast Florida Weather Outlook (4-15-14)

Beach_Image100

 

Overview

 

Cold front moves through the region overnight and then stalls in the Florida Straits before retreating back northward.  Chance of showers continues through the end of the week and possibly into beginning of the weekend.

Front heads back southward through the region Friday night/Saturday leading to improving weather after passage.  Somewhat cooler (less warm) and drier air moves in during the weekend and early next week.

Analysis

 

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was generally partly cloudy.  About the only shower activity detected on radar was offshore central Florida east coast.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

 

Overnight minimum temperatures were mostly around 70 to the middle 70’s with some middle and upper 60’s well inland.  Winds were generally light southeasterly with periods of calm especially in the interior areas.

During the day, it was mostly sunny for the first part of the day with increasing clouds by middle afternoon.  By early/middle afternoon, widely scattered to scattered showers were developing over the interior portions of south Florida with the activity moving northeastward.  By late afternoon, areal coverage increased and widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms developed.  Some of the activity became strong which prompted the issuance of Special Weather Statement for portion of the area and Special Marine Warning for the coastal waters.  A wind gust of 46 mph was reported at the Pompano Beach Airpark.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

 

Afternoon highs were in the upper 80’s to around 90.  Winds were generally south and southwest at 10 – 20 mph with higher gusts.

Below is the U.S. surface analysis for late this afternoon.

U.S. Surface Analysis (Late Afternoon)

U.S. Surface Analysis
(Late Afternoon)

 

South and southwest winds in advance of the cold front was drawing higher moisture northward into Florida with dewpoint temperatures in the low 70’s into the northern peninsula.  Meanwhile, behind the front, cooler and drier air resulted in dewpoint temperatures in the 40’s and 50’s in the panhandle.  There was a sharp dewpoint temperature gradient near the front.

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

 

 

Forecast

 

Short Range Forecast:

For tonight, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy.  There will be isolated to widely scattered showers. Lows will be in the middle 60’s to the lower 70’s.   Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

 

At the middle and upper levels, the middle of the week begins with broad trough over most of the U.S. with the Caribbean High near eastern Cuba/southern Bahamas.  This keeps Florida in a general southwest flow aloft.  By the end of the week, a more pronounced negatively tilted trough takes shape over the east-central U.S. which is followed by a ridge in the western U.S. and a trough near California.  The High near eastern Cuba shifts and expands further northeastward into the western Atlantic.  A general southwest flow aloft remains over Florida.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-16-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-16-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-18-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-18-14



The front will move through south Florida overnight and off the southeast Florida coast early Wednesday.

wpc416142a_conus

WPC Forecast 4-15-14 (2:00 am)

 

The front loses support and front stalls near the region or in the Florida Straits on Wednesday as the upper level flow parallels the front.  The front then retreats northward later Wednesday and into Thursday.  This keeps the chance of showers and thunderstorms in the region.  It appears that the activity will be more numerous in the southern portions on Wednesday and more widespread on Thursday.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-15-14(12z) at 033 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-15-14(12z) at 033 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-15-14(12z) at 057 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-15-14(12z) at 057 Hours



By the end of the weak, the front will be across central Florida with a surface Low developing along the front.

WPC Forecast 4-18-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 4-18-14 (8:00 am)

 

This may help to shift some of the activity further northward on Friday.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-15-14(12z) at 081 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-15-14(12z) at 081 Hours

 

With 500 mb temperatures rather cold at around -10°C to -11°C (at times around -12°C) through the end of the week, this may aid with the development of thunderstorms with the potential for some strong thunderstorms.  The negating factor may be the possibility of more limited daytime heating due to cloudiness.  The primary impacts will be locally heavy rain and frequent lightning with some of the stronger activity associated with strong gusty winds.  Cannot rule out the possibility of hail with these temperatures.

 

For Wednesday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy.  There will be scattered to good chance of showers, mostly later in the day. There may also be isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. The activity will be most numerous in the southern portions.  Highs will be in the upper 70’s to the low 80’s.  Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low 60’s to the middle 60’s.  Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows in the middle 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

For Thursday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy.  There will be a good chance of showers.  There will also be widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms.  Highs will be around 80 to the middle 80’s.  Lows Thursday night will be in the upper 60’s to the middle 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the middle 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

For Friday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy.  There will be scattered to good chance of showers.  There will also be widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms.  Highs will be in the middle 80’s to near 90.  Some areas near the coast may be in the low 80’s.  Lows Friday night will be in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low 60’s to the middle 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

 

Medium Range Outlook:

In the middle and upper levels, the trough/Low migrates eastward and moves across the eastern U.S. and Florida and off the U.S. east coast by the end of the weekend which is followed by a ridge.  With the trough moving into the eastern U.S., the High that is near the Bahamas gets shunted south and west and is centered near the southwest Gulf of Mexico into the southern Caribbean where it builds to 588 DM.  The flow aloft transitions from cyclonic to anti-cyclonic as these features traverse the region.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-20-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-20-14

 

The surface Low moves across north Florida and into the Atlantic with the cold front moving into north Florida on Saturday.

WPC Forecast 4-19-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 4-19-14 (8:00 am)

 

Forecast models are quicker with the movement of the surface Low and frontal system.  This results with the front moving through sometimes on Saturday (vs Sunday on yesterday’s model runs).  However, there are still timing differences with the GFS model indicating passage Friday night/early Saturday while the ECMWF model has it later in the day.  Once the front moves through, drier air will work into the region; reducing shower chances for the remainder of the weekend.  The process should be underway by Saturday afternoon and continue into Sunday.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-15-14(12z) at 102 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-15-14(12z) at 102 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-15-14(12z) at 129 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-15-14(12z) at 129 Hours



Extended Range Outlook:

At the middle and upper levels, by early next week, rather low amplitude trough takes shape over the eastern U.S. and the U.S. west coast with a ridge in between near the central U.S.  The Caribbean High weakens and is centered near the Yucatan peninsula.  This places the eastern U.S. within a weakly cyclonic flow aloft with Florida in a rather zonal (west to east flow).

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-22-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-22-14

 

Conditions will remain generally sunny and rather dry into the beginning of next week, before moisture gradually increases early next week.  Based on the GFS model, there may be a chance of showers later on Tuesday.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-15-14(12z) at 180 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-15-14(12z) at 180 Hours

 

For the remainder of the week, a general easterly flow will keep moisture over the region which may bring a chance of showers.  However, at this juncture, the GFS model shows isolated to widely scattered activity.

 

 

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

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