For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was clear to partly cloudy early becoming partly cloudy to cloudy later overnight. No showers were detected on radar.
Overnight minimum temperatures were in the upper 50’s to the middle 60’s with some upper 60’s near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties. Some of the well inland areas (primarily in Palm Beach and Broward Counties had lows in the low to middle 50’s. Very light variable winds to calm winds become more offshore as a drainage flow developed late.
During the day, it was sunny to partly sunny. There was little in the way of clouds and no showers were detected.
A pronounced sea breeze front developed on both coasts of south Florida during the afternoon. As they moved inland, they collided over western Miami-Dade County.
However, with scant moisture, no shower activity was initiated. If this was during the summertime, these features would typically have initiated/sustain showers and thunderstorms.
High temperatures today were mostly near 80 to the low 80’s. A few areas were approaching the middle 80’s. Winds were light and variable with a sea breeze developing by late afternoon near the coastal areas.
There was relatively dry air over the region at the low-levels. This helped to preclude shower development.
With the dry air, dewpoint temperatures were in the comfortable 50’s.
With clear skies, little more moisture around and very light to calm winds, radiational fog development is possible. Additionally, as an offshore drainage flow develops, some of the fog may be closer to the metro areas.
Short Range Forecast:
For tonight, it will be mostly clear. Some fog may develop late tonight, mainly in the interior. Lows will be in the upper 50’s to the middle 60’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low to middle 50’s.
At the middle and upper levels, Tuesday starts off with a Low in Texas and a trough in the central U.S. and a Low near Hudson Bay. High is located over the eastern Pacific ridging northeast toward the northwest U.S. Another High is located in the Caribbean. There will be a general southwest-west flow over the southeast U.S. and Florida. In the next few days, the northern stream and southern stream features will be migrating eastward and phasing leading to a full meridional trough over the eastern U.S. toward the end of the week. The trough in the central U.S. splits off to the west and develops as a closed Low near California/Nevada. This evolution will force the High in the Caribbean away from the region and lead to height falls.
A weak surface High will continue to dominate the region on Tuesday.
By late Wednesday, a front moving southeast will be in north Florida.
An area of showers accompanying the feature moving across the Gulf of Mexico dampens out as it approaches Florida on Wednesday. Model runs over the last few days indicate decreasing trend for shower activity associated with the feature.
However, with increasing moisture – PWAT (Precipitable Water) increasing to around 1 ½”, daytime heating and sea breeze convergence may aid with the development of showers and may help to spark some thunderstorm development.
The front is forecast to move off the southeast Florida Coast early Thursday.
Cooler and much drier air moves into the region for Thursday. PWAT falls to around ½” later on Thursday. This will lead to dewpoint temperatures falling into the 50’s and possibly 40’s.
The pressure gradient will be tightening up as a large surface Low moves through the northeast U.S. A building surface High post frontal passage, will maintain the pressure gradient for a period of time. Small Craft Advisory or Small Craft Operators exercise caution may be required toward the middle/end of the week. Additionally, as winds become onshore, the risk of rip currents will be on the increase.
The GFS and ECMWF forecast models have come closer with minimum temperature forecast for Thursday night/Friday morning. The GFS has trended somewhat cooler while the ECMWF has trended warmer. The ECMWF model indicates more of a northeast wind than it did in earlier runs which GFS has been consistent with it. The northeast winds lead to air mass modification as the air traverses over the warmer waters of the Atlantic and Gulf Stream. The GFS model is indicating temperatures in the 60’s along the coastal areas and metro areas with 50’s further inland. The ECMWF brings 50’s closer to the coast with 60’s along the coast. It also shows some 40’s well inland.
This is still about three to four days way and there may be some waffling of forecast temperatures.
For Tuesday, it will be sunny to partly sunny. Clouds increase later Tuesday becoming partly cloudy Tuesday night. Highs will be around 80 to the low 80’s. Some areas may reach the middle 80’s. Lows Tuesday night will be in the middle 60’s to around 70. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s.
For Wednesday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy with increasing clouds later in the day. It will be breezy. There will be widely scattered to scattered showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms. Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s. Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper 50’s to the middle 60’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the middle 50’s.
Small Craft Operators exercise caution may be required.
Small Craft Advisory or Small Craft Operators exercise caution will likely be required.
For Thursday, there may be some lingering clouds early, but it will become sunny. It will be breezy. Highs will be in the low 70’s to the upper 70’s. Lows Thursday night will be around 50 to the middle 50’s inland to middle 50’s to low 60’s at the metro and coastal areas. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the middle and upper 40’s.
Medium Range Outlook:
In the middle and upper levels, by the end of the week/early portion of the weekend, the trough in the eastern states will have quickly lifted out. This allows the High in the Caribbean to expand northward, allowing to some height rises over the region. The Low in the southwest U.S. opens up while traversing eastward. A High builds into the western U.S. A rather zonal flow continues across the southern U.S. and Florida.
The front that moved through the region Wednesday night/early Thursday is well south of the region by the end of the week as it is stalling out and becomes stationary.
The pressure gradient remains fairly tight keeping the winds elevated. Small Craft Operators exercise caution may be required. Additionally, with onshore winds, there will be the risk of rip currents.
After a cool start Friday morning, temperatures will gradually moderate and remain near normal.
Extended Range Outlook:
At the middle and upper levels, by early next week, the trough moves into the eastern U.S. with some amplification taking place. Once again, the High in the Caribbean gets shunted away. This leads to lowering of heights over the region. The flow aloft becomes more cyclonic over the eastern U.S., with a general southwest flow over Florida. The High in the western U.S. continues, but appears to de-amplify.
As the surface High shifts further eastward into the Atlantic, winds become more east and southeast as the weekend progresses. This will lead to increasing low level moisture. This may lead to slightly better chance of showers (still very low) for the weekend.
The next cold front will be moving into Florida early next week.
Moisture will pool ahead and along the front. PWAT will recover to around one inch over the weekend and increase a little further as the weekend progresses. This may further enhance the chance of showers for late Sunday into Monday.
The ECMWF model is slower with this evolution and indicates more in the way of shower activity for early next week.
Some cooler and drier air follows the front. GFS model currently depicts minimum temperatures in the 50’s and 60’s.
Looking further out, some moisture may work into the region late next week as an easterly flow becomes established possibly leading to a little better chance of showers.
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