Southeast Florida Weather Outlook (5-20-14)

Beach_Image100

 

Overview

 

It will remain dry and sunny for the week. Winds and seas will gradually subside over the next few days.

Temperatures will be gradually getting warmer especially toward end of the week. Temperatures may reach the upper 80’s into the low 90’s for the end of the week into the weekend.

Chance of showers and thunderstorms may increase slightly during the weekend as a front drops down from the north.

 

 

Analysis

 

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was mostly clear to partly cloudy.

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Late Night)

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Late Night)

 

Overnight lows were in the low to middle 70’s for the metro/coastal areas to the low 60’s to upper 60’s further inland. Winds were light to moderate out of the northeast and east with occasional higher gusts near the coast especially early.

During the day, it was sunny to partly sunny. It was rather breezy especially near the coast. A few showers developed near a weakening backdoor cold front that was entering the northern portions of the region.  Also, streamer cloud lines can be seen over the Atlantic.

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Afternoon)

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Afternoon)

 

High temperatures were in the low to middle 80’s with a few areas reaching the upper 80’s. Winds were northeast and east at 10 – 20 mph with higher gusts especially near the coast.

With rather dry air remaining in place, dewpoint temperatures were generally near 60 to the middle 60’s. There was a sliver of 50’s near the southwest portion of Florida away from the coast.

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

 

Below is the U.S. surface analysis for late this afternoon.

U.S. Surface Analysis (Late Afternoon)

U.S. Surface Analysis
(Late Afternoon)

 

Forecast

 

Short Range Forecast:

For tonight, it will be mostly clear with some high cloudiness possible. It will be rather breezy mainly near the coastal areas.  Lows will be in the upper 60’s to the lower 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows near 60 to the middle 60’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade County may see lows in the middle 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

Small Craft Operators should exercise caution along the Miami-Dade and Broward County coastal waters (except for Biscayne Bay). High Rip Current risk remains in effect.

 

At the middle and upper levels, for the middle of the week, a 588 DM plus High will be centered near the central Gulf States. It will be flanked by two Lows; one near the southwest U.S. and one near the northeast U.S. coast. Going into the of the week, the pattern changes little with the High near the central Gulf States shifting south into the Gulf of Mexico and a complex Low system near the northeast U.S./eastern Canadian Maritimes. In between the High over the Gulf of Mexico and an expanding 588 DM High in the Atlantic, a weakness/trough/Low in the northern Caribbean develops.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-21-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-21-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-23-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-23-14

Deep layered High (surface and aloft) will remain near the region for the remainder of the week. This will suppress shower development and moisture levels remaining low. PWAT will remain below 1” through Thursday and around 1” to around 1 ¼” for Friday. Most of the moisture will be confined to the lower levels. This is still below normal for this time of year.

The deep moisture continues to remain well to the south of the region over the northwest Caribbean.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-20-14(12z) at 081 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-20-14(12z) at 081 Hours

 

Winds will be diminishing as a surface High sinks southward in response to a cold front moving south. As the High moves south, the pressure gradient will relax. Additionally, winds become more southerly (hence the increase in moisture mentioned above)

Mild temperatures will warm through the week and rising to above normal levels.

 

For Wednesday, it will be mostly sunny. Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s. Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low to the middle 60’s.  Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows in the middle 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecastHigh Rip Current Risk remains in effect through Wednesday evening.

For Thursday, it will be mainly sunny. Highs will be in the low 80’s near the coastal areas to middle and upper 80’s in the metro and inland areas. Lows Thursday night will be in the upper 60’s to the lower 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the middle 60’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade County may see lows in the middle 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

For Friday, it will be sunny. Highs will be in the middle 80’s to near 90. Some areas may reach the low 90’s. Lows Friday night will be around 70 to the middle 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low 60’s to upper 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

 

Medium Range Outlook:

In the middle and upper levels, going into the end of the weekend, the pattern remains essentially the same. The High settles south (with ridging extending northward) into the eastern Gulf of Mexico as a trough digs south down the eastern U.S. seaboard/western Atlantic. As a High 588 DM plus High approaches the U.S. west coast, the Low in the southwest U.S. advances little more to the east while opening up. The Low in the northern Caribbean is absorbed by a trough to the north.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-25-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-25-14

 

With the mid/upper level trough digging southward along the U.S. eastern seaboard, it will support a cold front to move into the southeast U.S. for the weekend.

WPC Forecast 5-24-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-24-14 (8:00 am)

 

This will result in winds becoming more south/southwest and west. This usually means warmer conditions for the eastern portions of south Florida during the spring/summer months. May see high temperatures in the upper 80’s to the low 90’s range.  There may even be some middle 90’s mainly away from the coast.

GFS Extended MOS Forecast

GFS Extended MOS Forecast

 

For the weekend, with a southward moving front, the pooling of moisture and drawing moisture from the south/southwest may lead to little better chance of showers and thunderstorms.

 

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-20-14(12z) at 108 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-20-14(12z) at 108 Hours

 

Winds will be lighter which may allow for better sea breeze development. Additionally, with the upper level trough nearby, the GFS model forecasts 500 mb temperatures will be in the -9 ° C to -11° C range which may aid with the development of thunderstorms. Some of those thunderstorms could be strong. The negating portion of this is the PWAT (Precipitable Water) remains meager with the value around 1” to 1⅓” (possibly little higher in some periods) which remains below normal for this time of year. Heavy rains, gusty winds and possible hail would be the primary impacts.

Most of the activity looks to be focused in the interior.

 

Extended Range Outlook:

At the middle and upper levels, for early next week, the overall pattern aloft tends to flatten out. The 588 DM plus High shifts further south into the southern Gulf of Mexico and expands east and west, with a subtle/weakening trough moving into the central U.S. A more pronounced trough moves into the U.S. west coast. The trough near the eastern U.S. seaboard shifts further into the western Atlantic.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-27-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-27-14

 

As the mid/upper level pattern flattens out, the front loses support and decays near or just north of the region for the beginning of next week.

WPC Forecast 5-26-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-26-14 (8:00 am)

 

A surface High builds in from the north behind the front for early next week.

WPC Forecast 5-27-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-27-14 (8:00 am)

 

Easterly winds become re-established over the region. This will moderate the temperatures slightly especially near the coastal areas.

It will also allow for more low level moisture to work in. This may be sufficient for somewhat better chance of showers for the region for the early to middle part of next week.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-20-14(12z) at 177 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-20-14(12z) at 177 Hours

 

Looking further out, moisture will continue to increase and deepen into the end of next week. This may lead to better chance of showers and thunderstorms.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-20-14(12z) at 240 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-20-14(12z) at 240 Hours

 

This dry weather couldn’t last forever considering the rainy season on average begins around May 20th.

Longer range GFS model depicts increasing moisture in the western Caribbean for the first week of June.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-20-14(12z) at 300 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-20-14(12z) at 300 Hours

 

 

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

Southeast Florida Weather Outlook (5-16-14)

Beach_Image100

 

Overview

 

There will be generally dry conditions with mostly sunny skies for the weekend into at least early next week. There may be some high cloudiness streaming across from time to time.

It will be breezy for the weekend which will result in hazardous marine conditions. There will be high risk of rip currents for the weekend.

It will remain mostly dry and sunny into most of next week.

 

Analysis

 

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was partly cloudy to mostly cloudy. Few showers/areas of rain affected portions of the region mainly in the southern areas.

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Late Night)

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Late Night)

 

Overnight lows rather uniform with temperatures mostly around 70 to the low 70’s. Winds were mostly light out of the south and southwest becoming more westerly late at some areas.

During the day, it was mostly cloudy with some occasional peeks of the sun. Showers lingered over the region early; mainly in Miami-Dade County. The activity moved offshore by afternoon.

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Afternoon)

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Afternoon)

 

With the cloud cover and cooler air mass moving in, afternoon highs remained below normal. The highs were mainly in the middle and upper 70’s. A few areas reached around 80. West Palm Beach broke a record for the coolest maximum temperature of 77 ° F. The previous record was 78° F dating back to 1891.

With drier air filtering behind the front, dewpoint temperatures were falling through the day from north to south. By late afternoon, the northern portion of the area was in the 50’s with the southern portion in the middle and upper 60’s.

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

 

Below is the U.S. surface analysis for late this afternoon.

U.S. Surface Analysis (Late Afternoon)

U.S. Surface Analysis
(Late Afternoon)

 

Forecast

 

Short Range Forecast:

For tonight, it will be clear to partly cloudy. It will be breezy especially near the coast. Lows will be in the middle 60’s to upper 60’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the upper 50’s to the low 60’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade County may see lows around 70.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

Small Craft Advisory is in effect.

 

At the middle and upper levels, a high amplitude trough will be over the eastern U.S. for the beginning of the weekend with a ridge in the western U.S. and an approaching Low for the northwest U.S. The trough in the eastern U.S. lifts out for the beginning of next week, but then a complex closed low forms near the northeast U.S./northwest Atlantic with a trough digging down the U.S. eastern seaboard/western Atlantic for the beginning of next week. The ridge in the western U.S. shifts eastward and amplifies as the trough/Low moves into the western U.S. The High in the Caribbean is displaced southward.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-17-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-17-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-19-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-19-14

 

The cold front that moved through the region during the morning will move a little further south before becoming stationary to the south as it gradually decays. The deepest moisture associated with the front will be across Cuba and the northern Caribbean by the end of the weekend.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-16-14(12z) at 057 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-16-14(12z) at 057 Hours

 

Slightly cooler and drier air filters behind the front. It will be mostly sunny. There may be some high cloudiness streaming across at times. Models have backed off slightly on the degree of drying that was being shown on previous days. Dewpoint temperatures will fall into the comfortable 60’s and possibly 50’s for some periods during the weekend. We are approaching the rainy season, and will probably not see these conditions again for several months.

It will become breezy to windy tonight into Saturday. Small Craft Advisory is in effect overnight into Saturday morning. A High Rip Current Risk goes into effect Saturday morning.

Temperatures will be slightly below normal rising to near normal by the beginning of next week.

 

For Saturday, it will be sunny. There may be some high cloudiness. It will be breezy to rather windy at the coast. Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s. Lows Saturday night will be in the upper 60’s to the middle 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the middle 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

Small Craft Advisory will be in effect through the morning. Monitor latest forecast for possible extension. High Rip Current Risk goes into effect in the morning.

For Sunday, it will be sunny. There may be some high cloudiness. It will be breezy especially near the coastal/metro areas. Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s. Some areas in the interior may reach the upper 80’s. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper 60’s to the middle 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low to middle 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

High Rip Current Risk continues into Sunday Evening.

For Monday, it will be mostly sunny. It may be rather breezy especially near the coast and the southern portions. Highs will be in the middle 80’s with some of the coastal areas in the low 80’s. Some areas in the interior may reach the upper 80’s. Lows Monday night will be around 70 to the middle 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low 60’s to upper 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

 

Medium Range Outlook:

In the middle and upper levels, by the middle of next week, a rather strong 588 DM plus High will be near the central Gulf States flanked by troughs/Lows. One closed Low will be in the western U.S. with the other one off the northeast U.S. coast.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-21-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-21-14

 

With the digging trough along the U.S. eastern seaboard/western Atlantic, this may send a weak backdoor cold front toward Florida. However, it may washout before reaching the region.

WPC Forecast 5-19-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-19-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-20-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-20-14 (8:00 am)

This may lead to some increase in moisture which may be enough for chance of showers early to possibly into the middle of next week.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-16-14(12z) at 099 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-16-14(12z) at 099 Hours

 

A surface High pressure builds in behind the front.

WPC Forecast 5-21-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-21-14 (8:00 am)

 

As this occurs, winds may freshen some for early next week. Small Craft Operators exercise caution may be required for portion of the area. Additionally, with onshore winds, the risk of rip currents may be elevated.

It will be mostly sunny and dry for the early portion of next week as the weather will be dominated by a deep layered High pressure as the upper level High builds in from the west. The only caveat is the potential for some showers with the possible backdoor front.

Temperatures will be near normal rising to slightly above normal levels for early next week.

 

Extended Range Outlook:

At the middle and upper levels, going into the end of next week, the pattern de-amplifies with the 588 DM plus High dominating the southern tier of states. Another 588 DM will be over the Atlantic.

GFS 500 mb Forecast Model 5-16-14(12z) at 183 Hours

GFS 500 mb Forecast Model 5-16-14(12z) at 183 Hours

 

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Southeast Florida Weather Outlook (5-14-14)

Beach_Image100

 

Overview

 

Showers and thunderstorms into Thursday and into portion of Friday as a rather robust late season cold front approaches from the northwest.

Once the cold front clears the region late in the week, it will be little less warm with drier air moving in. There will be generally dry conditions with mostly sunny skies for the weekend into at least early next week.

It may become breezy end of the week into the weekend which may increase the risk of rip currents. Seas may also increase and may reach advisory levels for some periods.

 

Analysis

 

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was mostly partly cloudy. Some sites reported cloudy conditions while other sites had clear conditions at times. Scattered showers developed over the Atlantic and moved ashore affecting portions of the area. Other showers were affecting the Florida Keys and the Florida Straits.

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Late Night)

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Late Night)

 

Overnight lows were in the middle and upper 70’s with areas further inland in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s. Winds were easterly to occasionally southeasterly at moderate speeds occasionally gusty along the coast. Winds over the interior were typically lighter.

During the day, it was mostly sunny to partly sunny. Rapidly moving scattered to locally numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms affected portions of the area.

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Afternoon)

Animated Radar Overlaid with Satellite (Afternoon)

 

High temperatures were mostly in the middle and upper 80’s with some of the coastal areas in the low 80’s. Winds were east and southeast at 10 – 20 mph with higher gusts especially near the coast.

Dewpoint temperatures were around 70 to the low 70’s over the region with values in the middle and upper 70’s in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

 

Below is the U.S. surface analysis for late this afternoon.

U.S. Surface Analysis (Late Afternoon)

U.S. Surface Analysis
(Late Afternoon)

 

Below is the satellite image with surface features overlaid depicting the surface trough and Low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  A cold front is moving through the central Gulf of Mexico.

Satellite Image (Late Afternoon)

Satellite Image
(Late Afternoon)

 

 

Forecast

 

Short Range Forecast:

For tonight, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy. It will be rather breezy especially near the coast. There will be widely scattered to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.   Lows will be in the middle and upper 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 70 to the low 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

Small Craft Operators should exercise caution.

 

At the middle and upper levels, a “blocky” (very slow movement) and high amplitude pattern continues toward the end of the week. A trough will be over the east-central U.S. flanked by Highs/ridges over the U.S. eastern seaboard/western Atlantic and the western U.S. A 588 DM High plus will be centered over the western Caribbean. By early weekend, the trough will lift northeast into the eastern U.S. with the High in the Caribbean weakening. The ridge in the western U.S. is less amplified as a Low approaches the Pacific Northwest.  The High in the Caribbean weakens.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-15-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-15-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-17-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-17-14

 

The weak inverted surface trough that was over the western Bahamas on Tuesday re-oriented to the eastern Gulf of Mexico overnight into the day in advance of a cold front. A weak surface Low was developing along the axis of this trough.

The high amplitude mid/upper level trough supports a rather robust late season cold front. As the front advances southeast across the Gulf of Mexico, the surface Low will merge into the front and move northeast into the southeast U.S.

WPC Forecast 5-15-14 (2:00 pm)

WPC Forecast 5-15-14 (2:00 pm)

 

The front will be located across central Florida Thursday evening.

WPC Forecast 5-15-14 (8:00 pm)

WPC Forecast 5-15-14 (8:00 pm)

 

Ahead and along the front, there will be numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms. PWAT (Precipitable Water) is forecast to increase to around 2” to 2.2” on Thursday which is well above normal for this time of year. With these high PWAT values, there may be locally heavy rains especially if any training occurs or with slower moving activity. Below is the forecast 48 hour QPF totals through Friday evening.

Days 1 – 2 QPF 48 Hours Precipitation

Days 1 – 2 QPF
48 Hours Precipitation

 

The front moves off the southeast Florida coast Friday morning.

WPC Forecast 5-16-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-16-14 (8:00 am)

 

By late Friday the area of showers will have moved into the Florida Straits.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-14-14(12z) at 066 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-14-14(12z) at 066 Hours

 

Slightly cooler and much drier air invades the region for Saturday. Temperatures fall to below normal levels and will be rather mild for this time of year. The ECMWF forecast model has trended a little cooler with minimum temperatures. Forecast minimum temperatures will range mostly in the 60’s in the interior to around 70 to the low 70’s near the coastal areas.

Forecast models continue to suggest PWAT in the ½” to ⅔” range on Saturday and as mentioned in yesterday’s post, it will be close to minimum levels possible for this time of year.

This will lead to anomalous low dewpoint temperatures for this time of year. It will range in the comfortable 50’s (possibly 40’s) on Saturday.

Pressure gradient tightens later on Friday and into the weekend. This will lead to increasing winds and seas. A Small Craft Advisory may be required for later Friday/Saturday for portions if not all of the area. Small Craft Operators exercise caution may be required in other periods from Friday into the weekend.

 

For Thursday, it will be variably cloudy. There will be numerous showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Highs will be in the middle 80’s. Lows Thursday night will be around 70 to the middle 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the middle to upper 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

For Friday, it will be partly sunny. There may be some higher cloudiness. There will be scattered showers diminishing through the day. Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s. Lows Friday night will be in the middle 60’s to around 70. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade County may see lows in the low 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

Small Craft Operators may need to exercise caution. Small Craft Advisory may be required for portions of the coastal waters.

 

For Saturday, it will be sunny. There may be some high cloudiness. It will become breezy. Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s. Lows Saturday night will be in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low to middle 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

Small Craft Advisory may be required for portions if not all of the area. With increasing onshore winds, the risk of rip currents may increase.

 

Medium Range Outlook:

In the middle and upper levels, by the beginning of next week, after some de-amplification occurs, a trough digs southward along the U.S. eastern seaboard/western Atlantic. A ridge is in the central U.S. with a Low/trough moving into the western U.S.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-19-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-19-14

 

The rest of the weekend remains dry with mostly sunny conditions. PWAT recover to around ¾” on Sunday. Temperatures will remain mild (for this time of year) and somewhat below normal.

Winds may remain elevated into Sunday. Small Craft Operators exercise caution may be required for portions if not all of the area. Additionally, with rather fresh onshore winds, there will be an elevated risk of rip currents.

It will remain mostly sunny and dry into early next week with temperatures near to slightly below normal.

With the digging trough in the western Atlantic, forecast models hints at the possibility of weak backdoor cold front that will probably just move to the north and east of the region.

WPC Forecast 5-19-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 5-19-14 (8:00 am)

 

 

Extended Range Outlook:

At the middle and upper levels, going into the middle of next week, there isn’t much change as the “blocky” pattern continues. The most notable change appears to be the Low in the western U.S. dropping further south and closes off. The High in the Caribbean builds northward into the Gulf of Mexico and east-central U.S.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-21-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 5-21-14

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