Chance of showers continues for the rest of the week mostly in the interior portions.
It will continue to be warm with above normal temperatures. With dewpoint temperatures in the more uncomfortable range of around 70 to the low 70’s, heat indices may reach the middle 90’s.
As a cool front approaches and moves through for the weekend, there will be an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Early next week, drier air filters in resulting in dry conditions under mostly sunny skies.
For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was generally clear to partly cloudy. A Coastal Flood Statement was issued for Miami-Dade for the possibility of minor coastal flooding (especially around the time of high tide) on the bay side of Miami Beach due to astronomical tides caused by the lunar cycle.
Overnight lows were mostly in the middle and upper 70’s with some upper 60’s to low 70’s further inland. Winds were generally light out of the east and southeast.
During the day, it was mostly sunny to partly sunny. Later in the day, upper level clouds from thunderstorm cloud tops overspread east and southeast into portions of the region. Showers and thunderstorms developed mainly in the interior portions of south Florida during the afternoon.
Daytime highs were in the upper 80’s to around 90 with some of the coastal areas in the low to middle 80’s. Some areas reached the low 90’s. Winds were southeasterly around 15 mph with higher gusts especially near the coast.
Below is the U.S. surface analysis for late this afternoon.
Dewpoint temperatures were around 70 to the low 70’s. Higher dewpoint temperatures of middle 70’s were over the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.
Short Range Forecast:
For tonight, it will be partly cloudy. There may be an isolated shower coming ashore. Lows will be in the middle and upper 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 70 to the low 70’s. There could be some smoke especially in the inland portions of Palm Beach County. Some of that smoke may be mixed in with fog.
At the middle and upper levels, toward the end of the week, the large persistent Low continues to crawl near the Great Lakes region with a trough extending south/southwest toward the southwest U.S. Ridges persist on either side. One ridge extends from a High near Cuba northeast into the western Atlantic, just off the east coast of the U.S. Another ridge/High is in the western U.S. extending northward into Canada. Florida remains in a southwest flow aloft. Early in the weekend, the blocking pattern breaks down and the large Low finally moves into Canada where it merges with a Low dropping down from western Canada. A trough extends southward toward the central/eastern U.S. as it migrates east. A trough pinches off near the base of the trough and may briefly close off as it moves east along the southern tier of the U.S. Another Low approaches the Northwest U.S. The High near Cuba persists with another High (588 DM plus) builds in from the Atlantic. The southwest flow aloft continues over Florida.
A cool front moves slowly across the Florida panhandle overnight and becomes nearly stationary across north Florida late Thursday.
The front remains quasi-stationary across north/central Florida through Friday into early Saturday as ripples of weak surface waves/Lows move northeast along the front.
Although low level moisture remains over the region, the axis of highest moisture and best surface convergence will be closest to the front and that is where the most numerous activity will be located. With daytime heating and sea breeze interaction, showers and thunderstorms will develop mostly in the interior areas where there is the greatest instability.
On Saturday, as the front nears, deeper moisture works into the region as low level winds become more south and southwest and the pooling of moisture along the front. PWAT (Precipitable Water) is forecast to increases to well above normal of around 1.7 to 1.9” range during the day. This will lead to better coverage of showers and thunderstorms for Saturday.
With these high PWAT values, there could be some locally heavy rains especially if “training” occurs and or slower moving activity.
For Thursday, it will be sunny to partly sunny. High level clouds may move in from time to time. There will be widely scattered to locally scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the upper 80’s to the low 90’s. Some of the coastal areas may be in the middle 80’s. Lows Thursday night will be in the low to middle 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 70. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows in the upper 70’s.
For Friday, it will be partly sunny. High level clouds may move in from time to time. There will be widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80’s. Some areas may be near 90. Lows Friday night will be in the low to middle 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 70.
For Saturday, it will be partly cloudy. There will be scattered to good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the middle and upper 80’s. Lows Saturday night will be in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low to middle 60’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows in the middle 70’s.
Medium Range Outlook:
In the middle and upper levels, going into the beginning of next week, the pattern is higher amplitude compared to previous day’s model runs. The “pinched” off trough continues moving east across the southeast U.S. and into the western Atlantic as well as the trough to the north which is anchored by a Low in the northeast U.S. A ridge builds into the central U.S. followed by another trough in the western U.S. The 588 DM plus High in the Atlantic re-locates near southern Mexico. The flow aloft transitions from southwest to more zonal (west to east) with slight anti-cyclonic flow during this period across Florida.
By Sunday, as the upper level pattern is more amplified and the last surface Low moves east of Florida, the front will get the extra kick to finally move off the southeast Florida coast.
The ECMWF model is quicker than the GFS with the front exiting the region and brings drier air sooner. Will go with the more pessimistic GFS solution which delays the drier air overspreading the region and keep the moisture around longer. This will lead to chance of showers and possible thunderstorms into Sunday mainly for the southern areas.
By the beginning of next week, the front will be further south to across Cuba.
This will allow for drier air to filter in with decreasing shower activity as a weak surface High overspreads the region. This will lead to decreasing showers.
Nighttime temperatures especially for the interior will not be as warm as dewpoint temperatures lower into the more comfortable 60’s.
Extended Range Outlook: