For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was generally partly cloudy to cloudy.
Overnight lows were mostly in the middle 50’s to low 60’s. Some areas further inland were around 50 to the low 50’s. Winds were mainly light offshore with periods of calm especially inland.
During the day, it was sunny to partly cloudy with periods of enhanced high clouds moving through the region especially later in the day.
The cloudiness was due to an upper level feature moving in from the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Below is the animated water vapor imagery which depicts moisture in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The milky/blue shading indicates higher moisture with the dark/brown areas indicating drier air.
This feature will move across the region this evening leading to decreasing high clouds.
High temperatures were mostly in the upper 70’s to the low 80’s. Winds were light and variable early becoming northeast to east at 10 – 15 mph during the afternoon.
Dry air remained over the region keeping dewpoint temperatures mostly in the 50’s with some 40’s over the region. Portions of the lower east coast were in the low to middle 60’s.
Short Range Forecast:
For tonight, it will be clear to partly cloudy. Lows will be in the middle 50’s to upper 50’s inland to upper 50’s to middle 60’s at the metro and coastal areas. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 50 to the low 50’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows in the upper 60’s to around 70.
At the middle and upper levels, early in the week begins with a departing Low off the Northeast U.S. coast and a weaker Low approaching the U.S. west coast. Between these two features, there is a rather zonal (west to east) flow aloft across most of the U.S. A High remains well south across the southern Caribbean. As the week progresses and toward the end of the week, with the Low off the Northeast U.S. coast having moved well out of the area, the High in the Caribbean builds northward (centered near the Yucatan peninsula) with ridging encompassing the eastern U.S. This results in an anti-cyclonic flow aloft over the eastern U.S. Meanwhile, the Low near the west coast of the U.S. has moved into the west-central U.S. while opening up as a trough while remaining split from the northern stream. A ridge quickly follows behind this trough into the western U.S. That dip seen in the graphics below for Tuesday (4/1) is the trough that moves across south Florida overnight which is responsible for the cloudiness over the region.
For the next few days, the region will be dominated by a deep layer (surface and aloft) High. There will be overall subsidence over the area and essentially suppressing shower development. It will be dry with seasonable temperatures.
The pressure gradient will tighten somewhat between the surface High in the Atlantic and a surface Low moving northeast from Texas. This will result with some increase of winds around the middle/end of the week for a period of time.
As the surface High moves further east into the Atlantic, winds veer to more southeast direction toward the end of the week. This will allow for increasing temperatures and deepening of moisture.
There may be an increase in clouds toward the end of the week.
For Tuesday, it will be sunny. Highs will be around 80 to the middle 80’s. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper 50’s to the middle 60’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around the middle 50’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows in the upper 60’s to around 70.
With winds becoming onshore, there may be the risk of rip currents. An update via twitter will be sent out on Tuesday with the rip current risk level.
For Wednesday, it will be sunny. Highs will be around 80 to the middle 80’s. Some areas further inland may reach the upper 80’s. Lows Wednesday night will be in the middle 60’s to low 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the upper 50’s to the low 60’s.
With winds onshore, there may be the risk of rip currents. An update via twitter will be sent out on Wednesday with the rip current risk level.
For Thursday, it will be sunny to partly sunny. It will be breezy especially near the coast. There may be some increase in clouds late in the day. Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s. Some areas further inland may reach the upper 80’s. Lows Thursday night will be in the upper 60’s to the middle 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low to middle 60’s.
Small Craft Operators exercise caution may be required.
With strengthening onshore winds, the risk of rip currents may increase further. An update via twitter will be sent out on Thursday with the rip current risk level.
Medium Range Outlook:
In the middle and upper levels, by early next weekend, the trough in the west-central U.S. will have once again closed off as a Low as it moved into the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, another trough takes shape in the Southwest U.S. The High in the Caribbean remains in the Caribbean, but has shifted eastward, centered east of the Yucatan peninsula. As this occurs, the ridge over the eastern U.S. translates eastward into the western Atlantic. The flow aloft returns to a more zonal flow across the southern tier of states.
It will continue to be rather uneventful from the end of the week into at least the early part of the weekend. A cold front will be moving into north Florida on Saturday.
There is not much support for the front to move through Florida and it looks to stall across central/north Florida.
As the front approaches Florida, surface High in the Atlantic moves further eastward. Low level winds will become more southeast and south over the region. This will lead to continuation of warmer temperatures and deepening of the moisture levels. Temperatures may approach near 90 in the interior areas. Additionally, some moisture may back-up into the region from the remnants of the front to the south. With warmer temperatures, sea breeze development may occur which could aid with the development of showers later on Saturday.
Extended Range Outlook:
At the middle and upper levels, early next week, the trough in the Southwest U.S. approaches the eastern U.S. and appears to be phasing with the northern stream flow with the axis sharpening. A positive tilted ridge builds into the western U.S. The High in the Caribbean moves further east as the trough approaches the eastern U.S. and it has pumped up to 588 DM plus while being centered near Cuba. The flow aloft over the southeast U.S. becomes increasingly southwesterly.
Moisture increases further on Sunday. The GFS model has PWAT increasing to above normal levels of 1 ½” – 1 ¾” range late on Saturday. This will result in better chance of showers.
Again, with daytime heating, sea breeze development may be a factor with shower development.
Early next week a surface Low develops along the western portion of the front. This will result in the front returning back north as a warm front.
As the upper level trough moves toward the eastern U.S., the front will have better support for southward progression and may begin to sag slowly southward with possible waves/weak surface Lows moving along the boundary as depicted by the GFS model.
The GFS model develops a more organized surface Low near the Mid-Atlantic States around the middle of next week. This will help to drive the cold front southward through the state during that time.
The ECMWF forecast model keeps the front in north Florida through at least Monday.
With the GFS solution, minimum temperatures would fall into the 50’s and 60’s toward the end of next week. This is still several days away and models should come into better agreement.
These are long range forecasts and are subject to significant errors.
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