Southeast Florida Weather Outlook (3-31-14)

Beach_Image100

 

Analysis

 

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was generally partly cloudy to cloudy.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

 

Overnight lows were mostly in the middle 50’s to low 60’s.  Some areas further inland were around 50 to the low 50’s.  Winds were mainly light offshore with periods of calm especially inland.

During the day, it was sunny to partly cloudy with periods of enhanced high clouds moving through the region especially later in the day.

 

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

 

The cloudiness was due to an upper level feature moving in from the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Below is the animated water vapor imagery which depicts moisture in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  The milky/blue shading indicates higher moisture with the dark/brown areas indicating drier air.

Animated Water Vapor Imagery (Afternoon)

Animated Water Vapor Imagery (Afternoon)

 

This feature will move across the region this evening leading to decreasing high clouds.

High temperatures were mostly in the upper 70’s to the low 80’s.  Winds were light and variable early becoming northeast to east at 10 – 15 mph during the afternoon.

Dry air remained over the region keeping dewpoint temperatures mostly in the 50’s with some 40’s over the region.  Portions of the lower east coast were in the low to middle 60’s.

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

 

 

Forecast

 

Short Range Forecast:

For tonight, it will be clear to partly cloudy.  Lows will be in the middle 50’s to upper 50’s inland to upper 50’s to middle 60’s at the metro and coastal areas.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 50 to the low 50’s.  Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows in the upper 60’s to around 70.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

 

At the middle and upper levels, early in the week begins with a departing Low off the Northeast U.S. coast and a weaker Low approaching the U.S. west coast.  Between these two features, there is a rather zonal (west to east) flow aloft across most of the U.S.   A High remains well south across the southern Caribbean.  As the week progresses and toward the end of the week, with the Low off the Northeast U.S. coast having moved well out of the area, the High in the Caribbean builds northward (centered near the Yucatan peninsula) with ridging encompassing the eastern U.S.  This results in an anti-cyclonic flow aloft over the eastern U.S.  Meanwhile, the Low near the west coast of the U.S. has moved into the west-central U.S. while opening up as a trough while remaining split from the northern stream. A ridge quickly follows behind this trough into the western U.S.  That dip seen in the graphics below for Tuesday (4/1)  is the trough that moves across south Florida overnight which is responsible for the cloudiness over the region.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-1-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-1-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-3-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-3-14



For the next few days, the region will be dominated by a deep layer (surface and aloft) High.  There will be overall subsidence over the area and essentially suppressing shower development.  It will be dry with seasonable temperatures.

The pressure gradient will tighten somewhat between the surface High in the Atlantic and a surface Low moving northeast from Texas.  This will result with some increase of winds around the middle/end of the week for a period of time.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-31-14(12z) at 075 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-31-14(12z) at 075 Hours

 

As the surface High moves further east into the Atlantic, winds veer to more southeast direction toward the end of the week.  This will allow for increasing temperatures and deepening of moisture.

There may be an increase in clouds toward the end of the week.

 

For Tuesday, it will be sunny.  Highs will be around 80 to the middle 80’s.  Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper 50’s to the middle 60’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around the middle 50’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows in the upper 60’s to around 70.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

With winds becoming onshore, there may be the risk of rip currents.  An update via twitter will be sent out on Tuesday with the rip current risk level.

For Wednesday, it will be sunny.  Highs will be around 80 to the middle 80’s.  Some areas further inland may reach the upper 80’s.   Lows Wednesday night will be in the middle 60’s to low 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the upper 50’s to the low 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

With winds onshore, there may be the risk of rip currents.  An update via twitter will be sent out on Wednesday with the rip current risk level.

For Thursday, it will be sunny to partly sunny.  It will be breezy especially near the coast. There may be some increase in clouds late in the day.  Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s.  Some areas further inland may reach the upper 80’s.  Lows Thursday night will be in the upper 60’s to the middle 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low to middle 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

Small Craft Operators exercise caution may be required.

With strengthening onshore winds, the risk of rip currents may increase further.  An update via twitter will be sent out on Thursday with the rip current risk level.

 

Medium Range Outlook:

In the middle and upper levels, by early next weekend, the trough in the west-central U.S. will have once again closed off as a Low as it moved into the Great Lakes region.  Meanwhile, another trough takes shape in the Southwest U.S.  The High in the Caribbean remains in the Caribbean, but has shifted eastward, centered east of the Yucatan peninsula. As this occurs, the ridge over the eastern U.S. translates eastward into the western Atlantic.  The flow aloft returns to a more zonal flow across the southern tier of states.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-5-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-5-14

 

It will continue to be rather uneventful from the end of the week into at least the early part of the weekend.  A cold front will be moving into north Florida on Saturday.

WPC Forecast 4-5-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 4-5-14 (8:00 am)

 

There is not much support for the front to move through Florida and it looks to stall across central/north Florida.

WPC Forecast 4-6-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 4-6-14 (8:00 am)

 

As the front approaches Florida, surface High in the Atlantic moves further eastward.  Low level winds will become more southeast and south over the region.  This will lead to continuation of warmer temperatures and deepening of the moisture levels.  Temperatures may approach near 90 in the interior areas.  Additionally, some moisture may back-up into the region from the remnants of the front to the south.  With warmer temperatures, sea breeze development may occur which could aid with the development of showers later on Saturday.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-31-14(12z) at 120 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-31-14(12z) at 120 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-31-14(12z) at 129 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-31-14(12z) at 129 Hours



 

Extended Range Outlook:

At the middle and upper levels, early next week, the trough in the Southwest U.S. approaches the eastern U.S. and appears to be phasing with the northern stream flow with the axis sharpening.  A positive tilted ridge builds into the western U.S.  The High in the Caribbean moves further east as the trough approaches the eastern U.S. and it has pumped up to 588 DM plus while being centered near Cuba.  The flow aloft over the southeast U.S. becomes increasingly southwesterly.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-7-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-7-14

 

Moisture increases further on Sunday.  The GFS model has PWAT increasing to above normal levels of 1 ½” – 1 ¾” range late on Saturday.  This will result in better chance of showers.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-31-14(12z) at 153 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-31-14(12z) at 153 Hours

 

Again, with daytime heating, sea breeze development may be a factor with shower development.

Early next week a surface Low develops along the western portion of the front.   This will result in the front returning back north as a warm front.

WPC Forecast 4-7-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 4-7-14 (8:00 am)

 

As the upper level trough moves toward the eastern U.S., the front will have better support for southward progression and may begin to sag slowly southward with possible waves/weak surface Lows moving along the boundary as depicted by the GFS model.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-31-14(12z) at 174 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-31-14(12z) at 174 Hours

 

The GFS model develops a more organized surface Low near the Mid-Atlantic States around the middle of next week.  This will help to drive the cold front southward through the state during that time.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-31-14(12z) at 204 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-31-14(12z) at 204 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-31-14(12z) at 228 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-31-14(12z) at 228 Hours



The ECMWF forecast model keeps the front in north Florida through at least Monday.

With the GFS solution, minimum temperatures would fall into the 50’s and 60’s toward the end of next week.  This is still several days away and models should come into better agreement.

These are long range forecasts and are subject to significant errors.

 

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

Southeast Florida Weather Outlook (3-28-14)

Beach_Image100

 

Analysis

 

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was partly cloudy to cloudy.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

 

Minimum temperatures were generally in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s.  Areas further inland had lows around 60 to the middle 60’s.  Winds were southeast at 10 – 20 mph with higher gusts especially near the coast.

During the day, it was mostly partly sunny to partly cloudy with increasing cloudiness late in the day.  Shower activity remained confined well to the north.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

 

High temperatures were mostly in the upper 70’s to low 80’s with a few areas reaching the middle 80’s.  Winds were southeasterly at 15 – 22 mph with higher gusts especially near the coast.  There was a trend of decreasing winds late in the afternoon.

Late this afternoon, a very weak surface Low was located in the Florida panhandle.  A stronger surface Low was located over Texas with a cold front to the north of it.

Satellite Imagery Overlaid with Fronts (Late Afternoon)

Satellite Imagery Overlaid with Fronts (Late Afternoon)

 

Moisture increased compared to Thursday resulting in higher dewpoint temperatures.  Most of south Florida was in the 60’s with a pocket of 50’s to the east of Lake Okeechobee.  Higher dewpoint temperatures was occurring in the Gulf of Mexico.

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

 

The increase of moisture has been somewhat delayed about ½ day which resulted in less shower activity for today.  Additionally, most of the moisture increase was in the middle and upper levels.  Below is animated water vapor imagery depicting the increase of moisture at those levels.  The milky/brighter colors (blues, reds, purple) indicate higher moisture levels.  The brown/dark colors indicate drier air.

Animated Water Vapor Imagery (Afternoon)

Animated Water Vapor Imagery (Afternoon)

 

Forecast models have PWAT (Precipitable Water) increasing to around 1 ½” late tonight.  This will lead to increasing chance of showers late tonight or it may hold off until morning.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-28-14(12z) at 024 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-28-14(12z) at 024 Hours

 

 

Forecast

 

Short Range Forecast:

For tonight, it will be mostly cloudy.  There will be widely scattered showers mainly late.  Lows will be around 70 to the middle 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

High Rip Current Risk has been extended until 8:00 AM Saturday.

At the middle and upper levels, at the beginning of the weekend, a trough in the Central U.S. will be migrating toward the eastern U.S. A Low will be near the Northwest U.S. coast.  Between these two features, there will be a ridge.  The ever persistent 588 DM High continues in the Caribbean.  By the beginning of next week, the trough has closed off and rotated to near the Northeast U.S.  This has caused the High in the Caribbean to weaken and shift southward.  The ridge in the central U.S. advances into the eastern U.S.  A Low continues near the Northwest U.S. coast.  The cyclonic flow aloft over the eastern U.S. early on transitions to an anti-cyclonic flow.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 3-29-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 3-29-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 3-31-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 3-31-14



PWAT increases further on Saturday to 1 ½” to 1 ¾” (even slightly higher at times) and continues into late Saturday night/early Sunday before diminishing.

A cold front moves into the Florida panhandle Saturday afternoon and moves slowly southward reaching north Florida Saturday evening.

WPC Forecast 3-29-14 (2:00 pm)

WPC Forecast 3-29-14 (2:00 pm)

WPC Forecast 3-29-14 (8:00 pm)

WPC Forecast 3-29-14 (8:00 pm)



The front reaches the extreme southern Florida Sunday morning.

WPC Forecast 3-30-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 3-30-14 (8:00 am)

 

The combination of the approaching front and increasing moisture will lead to good chance of showers and a few thunderstorms for Saturday and Saturday night.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-28-14(12z) at 033 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-28-14(12z) at 033 Hours

 

The best chances for thunderstorms will be during the afternoon and evening where daytime heating will be maximized. High clouds/debris cloudiness (from activity upstream) may negate this however.  If there is sufficient sunshine, sea breeze may develop which could enhance development. The GFS model shows 500 mb temperatures around -11° C which may aid with the instability.

Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front on Sunday.  PWAT decreases rapidly Sunday to around ⅓” late Sunday which is well below normal for this time of year.

Although differences continue between the GFS and ECMWF forecast models regarding minimum temperature forecast for Sunday night/Monday morning, there has been some narrowing.  The GFS now shows 50’s closer to the coast. The ECMWF paints 50’s almost to the coast, but does keep some 60’s along the coastal areas.

Monday night/Tuesday morning will have similar temperatures to possibly a few degrees cooler in the inland areas.  May see the coolest temperatures achieved before daybreak (typically the coolest period) along the coastal areas as winds will be veering more onshore.

 

For Saturday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy.  There will be a good chance of showers.  There will be isolated to widely scattered thundershowers.  Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s.  Some areas may reach the upper 80’s if there is sufficient sun.  Lows Saturday night will be in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around the middle 60’s.  Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows in the middle 70’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

For Sunday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy early with decreasing cloudiness during the morning becoming mostly sunny.  There may be some lingering showers early. Highs will be in the upper 70’s to the low 80’s.  Lows Sunday night will be in the upper 50’s to the middle 60’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low 50’s to the middle 50’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

For Monday, it will be sunny.  Highs will be in the upper 70’s to around 80.  Lows Monday night will be in the upper 50’s to the middle 60’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 50 to the middle 50’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

 

Medium Range Outlook:

In the middle and upper levels, by the middle of next week, a ridge persists in the eastern U.S. with the High in the Caribbean (centered near the Yucatan peninsula) building north and east.  The Low near the Northwest U.S. finally moves inland while opening up to a trough in the West-Central U.S.  The flow aloft is rather anti-cyclonic over the eastern U.S. with a cyclonic flow in the western half of the U.S.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-2-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-2-14

 

The front that moves through on Sunday becomes stationary near Cuba and persists for a few days into mid-week while slowly dissipating.

WPC Forecast 4-2-14 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 4-2-14 (8:00 am)

 

Deep layered High (surface and aloft) will provide for pleasant weather.  With drier air (especially at the middle and upper levels), shower chances look to be nearly nil for at least the early and middle of next week (possibly to the end of the week). It will be generally sunny to partly sunny.

Temperatures will start off below normal to normal and gradually rise to above normal levels (especially with minimum temperatures).

GFS Extended MOS Forecast

GFS Extended MOS Forecast

 

A surface High anchored over the Atlantic will provide a general east to east southeast wind flow through mid-week.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-28-14(12z) at 120 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-28-14(12z) at 120 Hours

 

 

Extended Range Outlook:

At the middle and upper levels, by the end of next week, the trough in the western U.S. has moved northeastward and closed off as a Low near the Great Lakes region. This results in the High in the Caribbean to shift eastward to near Cuba extending northeastward.  Another trough approaches the west coast of the U.S.  Between the trough and Low, there will be a ridge moving into the Central U.S.  Most of the eastern U.S. will have a southwest flow aloft.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-4-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-4-14

 

Toward the end of the week, the surface High in the Atlantic shifts eastward resulting in veering winds to the southeast and south.  Some moisture from the remnants of the front begins to back-up into the region at the end of next week. This will lead to better chance of showers.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-28-14(12z) at 189 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-28-14(12z) at 189 Hours

 

The GFS indicates the potential for a front to move into the region around next weekend.  This may lead to better chance of showers.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-28-14(12z) at 204 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-28-14(12z) at 204 Hours

 

There may be some cooling with the frontal passage.

Looking further out, the GFS model indicates there is then the potential of another frontal system later in that week – around the 10th of the month.  Again, this may bring another round of showers.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-28-14(12z) at 312 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-28-14(12z) at 312 Hours

 

The GFS shows slightly more cooling with this system.

These are long range forecasts and are susceptible to significant errors.

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

Southeast Florida Weather Outlook (3-27-14)

Beach_Image100

 

Analysis

 

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was partly cloudy to cloudy as low level clouds were moving in from the east and upper level clouds were streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

 

Overnight lows were in the upper 50’s to the middle 60’s.  Some areas further inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties were around 50 to the middle 50’s.  Some areas saw their minimum temperatures around midnight (plus or minus one hour)  especially near the coastal areas as winds shifted onshore.  Below is a graph and observation table for West Palm Beach depicting the change in temperature around 1:00 AM as the wind direction changed.

Temperature Graph

Temperature Graph

Observation Table

Observation Table



Light and offshore winds early veered easterly (especially near the coastal areas) late at 10 – 15 mph.

During the day, it was partly sunny to partly cloudy with periods of enhanced clouds from time to time in some areas.  Widely scattered showers developed late in the afternoon near the southeast coast extending eastward into the Atlantic.  Some of these showers were coming ashore.  An area of rain was located east to west across near Lake Okeechobee that was moving eastward.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

 

Highs today were mostly in the low 70’s to the upper 70’s.  Winds were mostly east and southeast at 10 – 20 mph with higher gusts especially near the coast.

The air mass continued to moisten today with dewpoint temperatures rising into the 50’s with some areas reaching the 60’s.

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

 

 

Forecast

 

Short Range Forecast:

For tonight, it will be partly cloudy.  There may be widely scattered showers.  It will be breezy especially near the coast.  Lows will be in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low to middle 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

Small Craft Advisory continues until late tonight.

High Rip Current Risk continues until 8:00 pm Friday.

 

At the middle and upper levels, Friday starts off with a trough in the central U.S. and an approaching Low off the Northwest U.S. coast and a resilient 588 DM plus High extending from the Caribbean east northeast into the Atlantic.  This places most of the U.S. in a broad cyclonic flow aloft with the eastern U.S. in the southwest flow.  By the end of the weekend, the trough in the central U.S. migrates eastward into the eastern U.S. while closing off as a Low.  As this occurs, the High in the Caribbean weakens and is shunted southwestward.  Another trough enters the western U.S. while the Low near off the Northwest U.S. coast has moved little.  This places the eastern and western U.S. in a cyclonic flow aloft with ridging in the middle of the U.S.  The southern tier of states is in a rather zonal flow aloft.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 3-28-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 3-28-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 3-30-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 3-30-14



As winds veer to the east southeast and southeast through Friday and more southerly on Saturday, moisture will on the increase.   Additionally, the remnants of the front that moved through late Tuesday will back-up into the region late Friday/Friday night.    This will lead to better chance of showers.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-27-14(12z) at 039 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-27-14(12z) at 039 Hours

 

The combination of veering winds and the remnants of the front backing up will bring PWAT (Precipitable Water) to above normal 1.5” to near 1.7” by later on Friday into Saturday.  The forecast models have backed off somewhat with the level of moisture compared to previous day’s runs.

A cold front will be moving into north Florida by Saturday evening.

WPC Forecast 3-29-14 (8:00 pm)

WPC Forecast 3-29-14 (8:00 pm)

 

 

With south and southwest winds on Saturday ahead of the front, it will be warm.  Depending on cloud cover, some areas may reach the upper 80’s.

With higher PWAT and a front moving into north Florida, there will be increasing chance of showers for late Friday into Saturday.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-27-14(12z) at 057 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-27-14(12z) at 057 Hours

 

With daytime heating (increase surface instability) plus possible sea breeze development, there is the possibility for the development of thunderstorms.  However, if there is more cloud cover than anticipated, this may be negated.  Also, the GFS model is depicting 500 mb temperatures of -11° C to -12° C which may increase instability.  With above normal PWAT, there is also the potential for locally heavy rains (although that has diminished as forecast PWAT have lowered).

The front will move into south Florida on Sunday.  There are some timing differences with the frontal passage; however the differences have been narrowing.  Current thinking is that passage will be during the morning/afternoon.  This will lead to decreasing cloudiness and chances of showers during the day.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-27-14(12z) at 078 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-27-14(12z) at 078 Hours

 

Any deviation from the forecast timing of the frontal system may affect the timing of the associated weather.

The other question is where will it stall out and become stationary. Both the GFS and ECMWF forecast models have trended with a cleaner passage and have it stalling near the Florida Straits/across Cuba.

Some cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front.  The ECMWF has been consistently showing cooler temperatures with most of south Florida in the 50’s with 60’s along the metro/coastal areas.  The GFS has been consistent with showing temperatures in the 60’s as it has winds veering more onshore which would modify the cooler air mass due to the maritime influence of the Atlantic and Gulf Stream.  For now will go with the idea of minimum temperatures for Sunday night/Monday morning will be mostly in the 60’s with some 50’s possible well inland.

 

For Friday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy.  It will be breezy especially near the coast.  There will be scattered to good chance of showers.  There may also be isolated thundershowers.  Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s.  Lows Friday night will be in the low 70’s to the middle 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the upper 60’s to around 70.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

Small Craft Operators exercise caution may be required.

Hip Rip Current Risk continues until 8:00 pm.

 

For Saturday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy.  There will be good chance of showers.  There will be widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms.  Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s.  Some areas may reach the upper 80’s.  Lows Saturday night will be in the upper 60’s to the middle 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around the middle 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

For Sunday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy.  There will be widely scattered to scattered showers.  Highs will be in the upper 70’s to around 80.  Lows Sunday night will be in the middle 60’s to around 70.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s.

Click here for the latest Southeast Florida winds/coastal waters forecast.

 

Medium Range Outlook:

In the middle and upper levels, the Low in the eastern U.S. has lifted out while opening up and is located off the Northeast U.S. coast.  Another trough moves towards the eastern and western U.S. with a ridge into the west-central U.S.  The High in the Caribbean builds back northward somewhat as the Low lifts out.  The southern tier of states remains in general zonal flow aloft.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-1-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-1-14

 

As it stands now (although the GFS model has flipped flopped on some runs), with the front to the south and drier air invading the region especially in the middle and upper levels, shower chances will be practically nil from early next week to most of the week.

With a surface High anchored in the Atlantic, winds will mostly easterly than veering more southeasterly toward the end of the week as the High shifts eastward.  Other than the brief cool down on Monday, temperatures will above normal levels especially for minimums.

GFS Extended MOS Forecast

GFS Extended MOS Forecast

 

Extended Range Outlook:

At the middle and upper levels, a ridge builds into the eastern U.S. and the High in the Caribbean continues.  The next trough/Low moves into the central U.S. (though near the north-central U.S.)  There is a broad cyclonic flow aloft over the central U.S. and an anti-cyclonic flow over the eastern U.S.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-3-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 4-3-14

 

The earliest potential for showers will occur late next week/early the following weekend as a frontal system approaches.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-27-14(12z) at 228 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-27-14(12z) at 228 Hours

 

This will force the surface High well east into the Atlantic resulting in winds becoming more south and southwest and lead to increasing moisture.  As the front moves through, some cooler and drier air filters in.

Looking even further out, the GFS model brings another frontal system through the region later that week (around the 10th of the month).

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-27-14(12z) at 348 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-27-14(12z) at 348 Hours

 

These are long range forecasts and are susceptible to significant errors.

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

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