For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was cloudy. There were periods of rain/showers. There was also fog in some areas.
Overnight lows were mostly in the upper 50’s to the middle 60’s. Some areas further inland (mainly in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) had minimums in the middle 50’s. Winds were light mostly out of the northwest and north with periods of calm winds.
During the day, the main band of rain moved offshore shortly after daybreak. It remained mostly cloudy with gradual clearing taking place from generally northwest to southeast. By early afternoon, most areas had become sunny to partly sunny. The rain area had moved well offshore into the western Bahamas.
Daytime maximum temperatures ranged from near 70 to the upper 70’s. Winds were mostly west and northwest at 5 – 15 mph.
Late this afternoon, the front that moved through on Friday was located in the Florida Straits as a stationary front extending east into the western Bahamas and southwest into western Cuba. A weak surface High is located in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. A trough is located to the east of Florida helping to keep surface winds more northerly.
Drier air was filtering in behind the front with humidity levels falling to the 40’s and 50’s percent range for most of the region.
With the drier air and cooler temperatures, dewpoint temperatures were in the 40’s and 50’s. With even drier and cooler air in north Florida, dewpoint temperatures were in the 20’s and 30’s.
Winds will remain more northerly overnight rather than veering quickly to the northeast. And under clear skies with drier air and light winds, it will be a good night for radiational cooling. Overnight lows will be generally in the 50’s to low 60’s.
Short Range Forecast:
For tonight, it will be clear to partly cloudy. Lows will be in the low 50’s to middle 50’s inland to upper 50’s to low 60’s at the metro and coastal areas. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the upper 40’s to around 50. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade County may see lows in the middle 60’s.
Winds will be north to north northeast at 6 – 12 knots. Seas will be 2 – 3 feet except 2 – 4 feet in Palm Beach County. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Ba will have a light chop.
At the middle and upper levels, the axis of the trough will move east of Florida putting the southeast U.S. and Florida in a northwest flow aloft. A trough approaches the west coast. In between the two troughs, a ridge builds into the central U.S. from the southern Gulf of Mexico/western Caribbean (at times strengthening to 588 DM). Locally, heights will rise to middle 580’s DM by Sunday. In the next few days, the trough from the west coast propagates eastward approaching the eastern U.S. As this occurs, the High shifts eastward into the western Caribbean/near Cuba. In advance of the trough, the flow aloft over becomes southwesterly across the eastern U.S. including Florida. Behind the trough, the flow becomes rather zonal.
As the axis of the trough moves east resulting with a more northwest flow aloft, this will allow for the stationary front to move further southeast away from the region and well into Cuba.
Drier air will continue to filter in with the flow aloft becoming northwest. This will set the stage for a pleasant weekend with sunny skies. PWAT (Precipitable Water) will fall to below normal levels and range between ½” and 1” for the weekend resulting in nil chance of showers. Afternoon temperatures will be seasonably warm with mild nighttime temperatures. Temperatures will be warming though.
With a building surface High to the north and become established in the Atlantic over the weekend, winds will veer to the northeast and east.
Winds may freshen up somewhat later on Saturday into Sunday which may raise the risk of rip currents.
There will be little change for the beginning of next week other than winds becoming more southeasterly and south as a front advances into the southeast U.S.
With the winds becoming more southeast and south, there will be some increase in moisture which may lead to the development of some showers.
For Saturday, it will be sunny. Highs will be in the upper 70’s to the middle 80’s. Lows Saturday night will be around 60 to the middle 60’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the middle and upper 50’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows near the upper 60’s.
Winds will be northerly at 9 – 14 knots becoming northeast Saturday night at 11 – 16 knots. Seas will be 2 – 4 feet becoming 2 – 5 feet Saturday night. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop becoming moderate chop Saturday night.
For Sunday, it will be sunny. Highs will be around 80 to the low 80’s. Some areas in the interior may reach the middle 80’s. Lows Sunday night will be in the low 60’s to upper 60’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the upper 50’s to around 60. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade County may see lows near 70.
Winds will be east northeast at 9 – 16 knots becoming east northeast and east at 5 – 12 knots Saturday night. Seas will be 2 – 5 feet decreasing to 2 – 4 feet Sunday night. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop becoming light chop Sunday night.
With increased onshore winds, there may be a slight to possibly moderate risk of rip currents. An update via twitter will be sent out as warranted on Sunday with the rip current risk level.
For Monday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s. Some areas in the interior may reach the upper 80’s while some of the immediate coastal areas (mainly in Miami-Dade County) may be around 80. Lows Monday night will be low 60’s to upper 60’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the upper 50’s to around 60.
Winds will be south and south southeast 5 – 9 knots becoming south southwest to variable at 5 – 8 knots. Seas will be 2 – 4 feet becoming 2 – 3 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop becoming smooth in the southern portions (Miami-Dade and Broward Counties).
Medium Range Outlook:
In the middle and upper levels, by early-middle next week, the trough will be over the eastern half of the U.S. with the High having been shunted eastward into the Atlantic near Cuba/Central Bahamas. As this occurs, heights will lower to around the 580 – low 580’s DM range. A southwest flow aloft continues over the southeast U.S. and Florida. Broad ridging moves into the western U.S.
With little support (flow aloft parallels the front), the front will make slow southward progress early next week and weaken as it does so.
The front will reach south Florida by the middle of next week in a highly weakened state. It will dissipate near the region.
Rain chances look sparse into mid-week with the best chance in the northern region.
Extended Range Outlook:
At the middle and upper levels, the trough slides further east while sharpening with a possible Low taking shape over the southeast U.S. It also appears that the flow may split between the northern and southern streams – at least for a period of time. Heights will lower over the region to around 570 DM – 576 DM range. Broad ridging continues near the western U.S/west coast.
A surface Low pressure is forecast to develop in the Gulf of Mexico toward the end of next week with an attending cold front.
The Low is forecast to move northeast to off the southeast U.S. coast by the end of next week with the cold front moving through south Florida during that time.
The GFS model depicts an area of showers to accompany the system.
Although, it is too early to determine the potential for thunderstorms, with the surface Low well south and fairly deep, there is that potential. Much of it will depend on the timing with the passage of the activity (daytime heating or the lack of it), the depth and position of the surface Low, shear, temperatures aloft, etc. With these types of systems, spring is notorious for thunderstorm development for this region.
Looking further out, the GFS indicates another frontal passage around the 10th of March.
At this time, it looks to be a dry passage. The GFS model has been showing various levels of cooling with this frontal system. At various runs, it has indicated minimums as low as in the 40’s. But as we have seen before, there can be significant run to run and day to day variations. For now will go with the idea that minimum temperatures will be in the 50’s. This is still 10 days out and there is plenty of time to monitor.
The GFS then shows another frontal passage just before the middle of the month. This front appears to have some showers associated with it as there is better moisture return with this system.
With the succession of frontal passages, this may be an extended period of cooler weather.
These are long range forecast and a lot can happen and are subject to large errors.
Climate Index Indicators:
The PNA index current phase is weakly positive/near neutral range. It is forecast remain nearly neutral for the next few days. It is then forecast to trend toward a moderate positive phase in the latter portion of the first week of March and continues positive into the middle of March while possibly showing a weakening signal.
This suggests initially a low amplitude (more zonal – west to east flow) pattern for the next few days. As the positive signal strengthens into the first week of March, this suggests a trough becomes established over the eastern U.S. while a ridging occurs over the western U.S. With the index remaining positive, this pattern looks to remain in place through the middle of March with some possible de-amplification taking place as the positive signal weakens somewhat.
Troughs are usually associated with cooler/colder conditions while ridges are associated with warmer conditions. During the neutral/near neutral phase, there typically is less amplitude to the flow. Weather systems will generally track west to east and in a high amplitude setup, weather systems can dive out of the northern latitudes (bring cold air) well southward or weather systems from the south (bring warm air) well northward.
The AO (Arctic Oscillation) index is currently in a weak to moderate negative phase. It is forecast to trend toward the neutral range into the first week of March with some members trending weakly negative again while other members trend it positive into the middle of March.
A positive phase of the index would tend to “bottle” up the colder air in the northern Latitudes and is less likely to dip far southward. A negative phase would have the tendency for allowing cold air to spill further southward into the U.S. from the northern latitudes. The current negative phase is indicative of the very cold Arctic outbreak that is occurring over portions of the U.S. Cold temperature records are anticipated at some locations.
The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has been largely in the neutral/weakly positive range for an extended period of time. It is forecast to trend slightly stronger positive into the first week of March. Some members showing a trend toward weak negative phase around the second week of March before returning back to a more neutral phase toward the middle of the month.
A negative phase tends to lead to cold air intrusion for the eastern portion of the U.S.
Below is the forecast 500 mb pattern for the 6 – 10 day and 8 – 14 day period. The graphics indicate that on average for the 6 – 10 day period, there will be a broad trough in the eastern U.S. with a ridge in the western U.S. The average pattern for the 8 – 14 day period indicates that there is little overall change other than the trough will shift a little further eastward into the eastern U.S and possibly flattening out a little. Ridging continues in the western U.S.
Below is the forecast 6 – 10 day and 8 – 14 day temperature outlook. The 6 – 10 Day outlook indicates higher probability of below normal temperatures for the central and eastern U.S. except for south Florida where temperatures are forecast to be normal. The western U.S. will have a higher probability of above normal to normal temperatures. In the 8 – 14 day period, there is little change except for some moderation on the probabilities of cooler air and increased likelihood for most of Florida.
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