Southeast Florida Weather – Evening Update 1-31-14

Beach_Image100

 

Analysis:

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was cloudy.  Periods of rain/showers was occurring.  The activity was shifting/diminishing from south to north as the night progressed.  Areas of fog were also occurring.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

 

Minimum temperatures were mostly around 60 to the middle 60’s. Some areas well inland (primarily in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) had lows in the middle and upper 50’s while some of the immediate coastal areas had lows in the upper 60’s as easterly winds developed.  Winds were light northwest and north to variable with periods of calm at some location.  As the night progressed, winds in some areas (especially the coastal areas) became more easterly.

Fog developed late overnight and became rather extensive during the early morning hours prompting the issuance of Special Weather Statement that expired at 8:00 am.

Thursday night’s soundings indicated PW (Precipitable Water) at 1.99” which is 197% (almost double) of normal for this time of year and essentially the maximum level possible for this time of year.

Precipitable Water Graph

Precipitable Water Graph

 

At this morning’s soundings, the PW fell to 1.82” which is still well above normal.  The PW is forecast to continue dropping as drier air works into the region.

During the day, it was generally cloudy with some breaks trying to take place late in the morning. By early afternoon, it became partly sunny to partly cloudy with some areas having cloudy conditions.  Most of the showers had shifted to the north of south Florida or were off the southwest coast of Florida.  Widely scattered to scattered showers and isolated thundershowers developed during the middle to late afternoon over interior portions mainly in Broward and Palm Beach Counties.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

 

Highs were mostly around 80 to the middle 80’s .  Winds were mostly southeast at 5 – 15 mph.

The quasi-stationary front that has been near the area for last couple of days is retreating as a warm front today.  Late this afternoon, it was located near Lake Okeechobee.

Satellite Imagery Overlaid with Fronts (Late Afternoon)

Satellite Imagery Overlaid with Fronts (Late Afternoon)

 

The mid-level short wave that has been enhancing showers/rain over the area was in the eastern Gulf of Mexico progressing east/northeast toward Florida while dampening out.

Animated Water Vapor Imagery (Afternoon)

Animated Water Vapor Imagery (Afternoon)

 

 

In the low and mid-levels, ample moisture was over the region with drier air to the south attempting to work in.  Drier air was evident over the Florida panhandle/north Florida.

Avg. Humidity/Steering Flow 850 mb to 650 mb (Afternoon)

Avg. Humidity/Steering Flow
850 mb to 650 mb (Afternoon)

 

With warmer temperatures and ample moisture, dewpoint temperatures for south Florida ranged in the middle 60’s to low 70’s.

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

 

 

With abundant low level moisture, fog is a good possibility for tonight.  Winds may stay up especially near the coastal areas.  Therefore fog will be most prevalent in the interior/western portions of south Florida.

 

Forecast:

Short Range Forecast:

For tonight, it will be partly cloudy.  Fog may develop tonight especially inland. There may be isolated showers.  Lows will be in the middle 60’s to low 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s.

Winds will be south southeast to southeast at 9 – 14 knots.  Seas will be 2 – 4 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop.

 

In the middle and upper levels, the positively oriented trough will remain from near Hudson Bay southwest to the western U.S.  The short wave in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will cross Florida overnight/Saturday.  With the departing shortwave, a 588 DM High will be building into the area.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-1-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-1-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-3-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-3-14



The quasi-stationary/warm front that has been near the region will continue to retreat northward.

WPC Forecast 2-1-14 (1:00 pm)

WPC Forecast 2-1-14 (1:00 pm)

 

The main moisture axis will shift northward along with the front.  This, together with the short wave moving out and with increasing heights will lead to decreasing showers for the region.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-31-14(12z) at 033 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-31-14(12z) at 033 Hours

 

With sufficient moisture and daytime heating, some showers may still develop on Saturday especially in the interior portions during the afternoon which may be further aided by sea breeze convergence.

A front will move into the southeast U.S. toward the end of the weekend.  The front will lose support and weaken across north Florida/Florida panhandle.

WPC Forecast 2-3-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 2-3-14 (7:00 am)

 

About the only affect to the weather will be winds briefly veering more southeasterly during the weekend.

With an east and southeast flow becoming established together with upper level High nearby, temperatures will warm to above normal levels.

 

For Saturday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy.  There will be isolated showers. Some fog may develop again Saturday night especially in the interior areas.  Highs will be around 80 to the middle 80’s.  Lows Saturday night will be in the middle 60’s to the low 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s.

Winds will be southeast to east southeast at 8 – 15 knots.  Seas will be 2 – 3 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop.

With onshore winds, there will be a slight to possibly moderate risk of rip currents.  An update via twitter will be sent out on Saturday with the rip current risk level.

For Sunday, it will be sunny to partly cloudy. There may be some isolated showers late in the day/Sunday night.  Highs will be around 80 to the middle 80’s.   Lows Sunday night will be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the middle 60’s.

Winds will be east southeast and southeast at 7 – 14 knots becoming east southeast to east at 10 – 17 knots Sunday night.  Seas will be 2 – 3 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop.

As onshore winds continue, there will be a slight to possibly moderate risk of rip currents.  An update via twitter will be sent out on Sunday with the rip current risk level.

For Monday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy with some increase of cloudiness later Monday/Monday night. There may be isolated showers.  Highs will be around 80 to the middle 80’s.   Lows Monday night will be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the middle 60’s.

Winds will be east and east southeast at 10 – 17 knots.  Seas will be 2 – 3 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop.

With onshore winds, there will be a slight to possibly moderate risk of rip currents.  An update via twitter will be sent out on Monday with the rip current risk level.

 

Medium Range Outlook:

The front located in north Florida mentioned in the short term will then retreat back northward as a warm front.

WPC Forecast 2-4-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 2-4-14 (7:00 am)

 

As the front lifts back northward, surface winds become more easterly.  Patches of higher moisture in this flow may bring periods of slight increase in shower activity for early next week.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-31-14(12z) at 105 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-31-14(12z) at 105 Hours

 

At the mid/upper levels, the mean trough makes some eastward progression from the western/central U.S. toward the central/eastern U.S. as the High retreats somewhat.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-4-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-4-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-5-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-5-14



This will help to support a front to move into the Florida panhandle around the middle of next week.

WPC Forecast 2-5-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 2-5-14 (7:00 am)

 

 

Extended Range Outlook:

In the middle and upper levels, the general theme will be a mean trough in the western/central U.S. and a High in the Atlantic poking toward Florida/southeast U.S.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-7-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-7-14

 

With this flow pattern, storm tracks/weather systems will tend to be from the Texas region northeast toward the northeast U.S.

The front will continue southward into south Florida toward the end of next week (Thursday)

WPC Forecast 2-6-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 2-6-14 (7:00 am)

 

The front loses support for further progression southward (mean trough reloads/retrogrades out west) and it becomes stationary near south Florida.

WPC Forecast 2-7-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 2-7-14 (7:00 am)

 

There will be limited if any cooling with this front as the surface High shifts rapidly to the east and winds veer to the northeast. This will modify the air mass due to the maritime influence of the Atlantic and Gulf Stream.

Some showers will accompany the front and it may linger for a day or so.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-31-14(12z) at 153 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-31-14(12z) at 153 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-31-14(12z) at 186 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-31-14(12z) at 186 Hours



A rather strong surface High in the eastern U.S., will lead to the tightening of the pressure gradient.  Winds and seas will respond accordingly.  With onshore winds, the risk of rip currents will increase.

The GFS forecast model indicates the next potential frontal system 4 to 5 days later.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-31-14(12z) at 264 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-31-14(12z) at 264 Hours

 

The GFS model has been flip flopping on how cool it will become with this frontal system.  Much of it will depend on the wind flow and how quickly it veers to the northeast.  Current thinking is minimum temperatures will range in the 50’s and 60’s.

 

Climate Index Indicators:

The PNA index has been in the moderate negative phase in the past few days.   It is forecast to remain so with some variability between moderate to strong range for next several days and become more neutral toward the middle of the month.

Forecast PNA Index 1-31-14 (12z) (source: raleighwx.americanwx.com)

Forecast PNA Index 1-31-14 (12z)
(source: raleighwx.americanwx.com)

 

This suggests the current alignment of a trough/ridge across the U.S. will continue with the usual amplification/de-amplification cycles.  This is opposite to what has been experienced for the last few weeks where the index was moderate to strong positive and a trough had setup over the eastern U.S.

Troughs are usually associated with cooler/colder conditions while ridges are associated with warmer conditions. During the neutral/near neutral phase, there typically is less amplitude to the flow.  Weather systems will generally track west to east and in a high amplitude setup, weather systems can dive out of the northern latitudes (bring cold air) well southward or weather systems from the south (bring warm air) well northward.

An example of this is what was occurring over the U.S. in the past couple of weeks.  The western U.S. was experiencing above to well above normal temperatures while the eastern U.S.  was experiencing below to well below temperatures.

The AO (Arctic Oscillation) index is rather neutral and is forecast to trend toward a moderate positive phase over the next several days.  This would tend to “bottle” up the colder air in the northern Latitudes and less likely to dip far southward.   A negative phase would have the tendency for allowing cold air to spill well southward into the U.S. from the northern latitudes.

Forecast AO Index 1-31-14 (12z) (source: raleighwx.americanwx.com)

Forecast AO Index 1-31-14 (12z)
(source: raleighwx.americanwx.com)

 

The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has been largely in the neutral range and is forecast to remain so.  A negative phase tends to lead to cold air intrusion for the eastern portion of the U.S.

Forecast NAO Index 1-31-14 (12z) (source: raleighwx.americanwx.com)

Forecast NAO Index 1-31-14 (12z)
(source: raleighwx.americanwx.com)

 

For further reading regarding these indices and others used, click here.

 

Below is the forecast 500 mb pattern for the 6 – 10 day and 8 – 14 day period.  The graphics indicate that the broad mean trough will initially be in the west central U.S. with progression toward the east central U.S. with some de-amplification possible.

500 mb Flow 6 – 10 Day Period

500 mb Flow 6 – 10 Day Period

500 mb Flow 8 – 14 Day Period

500 mb Flow 8 – 14 Day Period



Below is the forecast 6 – 10 day and 8 – 14 day temperature outlook.  The theme is for continued above normal temperatures for the area.  Below temperatures will be mainly in the central U.S. and the northern part of the county.

6 – 10 Day Temperature Outlook

6 – 10 Day Temperature Outlook

8 – 14 Day Temperature Outlook

8 – 14 Day Temperature Outlook



Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

Southeast Florida Weather – Evening Update 1-30-14

Beach_Image100

 

Analysis:

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was cloudy.  Widely scattered showers were occurring over coastal and northern portions earlier last night.  After midnight, showers increased in areal coverage and spread northeastward across portions of the region.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

 

Fog also developed in some areas mainly in the interior. Abundant cloud cover and areas of rain minimized radiational cooling. Lows were generally in the upper 50’s to low 60’s with some of the well inland areas seeing minimum temperatures in the middle 50’s and some of the immediate coastal areas in the middle 60’s.  Winds were light mostly out of the northwest and north.

During the day, it was cloudy.  Showers and rains periodically streamed across the region.  An Urban Flood Advisory was issued for portion of Palm Beach County during the morning which was later cancelled.  Another one was issued just before noon, but was also cancelled around the middle of the afternoon. Some thunderstorms also developed over the offshore waters of the southeast Florida coast.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

 

Moderate to locally heavy rains occurred over the region.  Below is radar estimate of 24 hour rainfall ending 6:30 pm this evening.

South Florida 24-Hour Radar Estimate

South Florida 24-Hour
Radar Estimate

 

Solar insolation was lower today due to extensive cloudiness and periods of rain/showers.  This kept maximum temperatures lower.  Highs were mostly in the middle 60’s to lower 70’s with some areas remaining in the low 60’s.

The front that moved through the area on Wednesday was located late this afternoon just south of the area in the Florida Straits just south of the Florida Keys.

Satellite Imagery Overlaid with Fronts (Late Afternoon)

Satellite Imagery Overlaid with Fronts (Late Afternoon)

 

There was abundant moisture in the low and middle levels as depicted below.  Drier air was filtering into northern Florida.

Avg. Humidity/Steering Flow 850 mb to 650 mb (Afternoon)

Avg. Humidity/Steering Flow 850 mb to 650 mb (Afternoon)

 

Although it was rather cool, abundant low level moisture kept dewpoint mostly temperatures in the 50’s and 60’s.

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

 

With all of the low level moisture around fog/low stratus may once again develop tonight.  Cloud cover and rains will lower the likelihood of fog, but low stratus is possible.

 

Forecast:

Short Range Forecast:

For tonight, it will be cloudy with periods of showers/rain.  Lows will be in the upper 50’s to the middle 60’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low to middle 50’s.

Winds will be northeast to east at 8 – 15 knots.  Seas will be 2 – 5 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have moderate chop.

 

In the short term, the middle/upper level flow will be characterized by an amplifying positively tilted (northeast to southwest) trough as a 588 DM High in the Atlantic expands westward.  Additionally, an upper low will move southeast from the northeast Pacific while opening up and move into the base of the trough.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 1-31-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 1-31-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-2-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-2-14



At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will remain near the region through early Saturday.

WPC Forecast 1-31-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 1-31-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 2-1-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 2-1-14 (7:00 am)



There is also a short wave progressing eastward in the central Gulf of Mexico as depicted by the animated water vapor imagery below.

Animated Water Vapor Imagery (Late Afternoon)

Animated Water Vapor Imagery (Late Afternoon)

 

The front in conjunction with the short wave in the central Gulf Of Mexico will continue to enhance shower activity over the region for tonight and into portion of Friday.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-30-14(12z) at 018 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-30-14(12z) at 018 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-30-14(12z) at 027 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-30-14(12z) at 027 Hours



There also appears to a weak/subtle inverted surface trough near the area as depicted by the GFS model graphics above.

Showers should diminish as the day progresses on Friday.

An east and southeast flow becomes established on Friday and into the weekend.   This together with building High aloft will result in warming temperatures to above normal levels by the weekend.

With daytime heating and low level moisture from an easterly flow, there may also be chance of showers on Saturday. It may also be further enhanced if sea breeze develops which may increase convergence.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-30-14(12z) at 057 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-30-14(12z) at 057 Hours

 

A front will move into the southeast U.S. at the end of the weekend.

WPC Forecast 2-2-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 2-2-14 (7:00 am)

 

About the only affect that it will have over the region is to have winds veer to a more southeast direction.

 

For Friday, it will be cloudy with decreasing cloudiness  later Friday/Friday night.  There will be scattered showers/rains, diminishing later in the day.  Highs will be in the upper 70’s to low 80’s Lows Friday night will be in the middle 60’s to the low 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s.

Winds will be east and southeast at 5 – 13 knots.  Seas will be 2 – 5 feet subsiding to 2 – 3 feet Friday night in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light to moderate chop.

With an onshore wind, there will be a slight to possibly moderate risk of rip currents.  An update via twitter will be sent out on Friday with the rip current risk level.

For Saturday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy. There will be isolated to widely scattered showers.  Highs will be around 80 to the middle 80’s.  Lows Saturday night will be in the middle 60’s to low 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s.

Winds will be east southeast and southeast at 8 – 14 knots.  Winds will be 12 – 17 knots in the Gulf Stream off of Miami-Dade and Broward County.  Seas will be 2 – 4 feet subsiding to 2 – 3 feet Saturday night.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop.

With an east southeast and southeast wind flow, there will be a slight to possibly moderate risk of rip currents.  An update via twitter will be sent out on Saturday with the rip current risk level.

For Sunday, it will be partly sunny.  Highs will be around 80 to the low 80’s.  Some areas may reach the middle 80’s.  Lows Sunday night will be in the middle 60’s to low 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s.

Winds will be east southeast and southeast becoming east and east southeast Sunday night at 9 – 14 knots.  Winds will be 13 – 18 knots in the Gulf Stream off of Miami-Dade and Broward County.  Seas will be 2 – 3 feet.

As onshore winds continue, there will be a slight to possibly moderate risk of rip currents.  An update via twitter will be sent out on Sunday with the rip current risk level.

 

Medium Range Outlook:

The front that moves into the southeast U.S. will loses support for further southward progression and becomes stationary and begins retreating northward by early next week.

WPC Forecast 2-4-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 2-4-14 (7:00 am)

 

This will allow for the surface High to become better established in the Atlantic and winds will veer to a more easterly direction.  Patches of moisture (possible subtle inverted low level trough) will move westward within this flow that may lead to periodic increased chance of showers.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-30-14(12z) at 102 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-30-14(12z) at 102 Hours

 

At the middle and upper levels, the trough in the western U.S. progresses eastward toward the eastern U.S. as the High retreats eastward.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-4-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-4-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-5-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-5-14



This will support cold front will move into the Florida panhandle around the middle of next week.

WPC Forecast 2-5-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 2-5-14 (7:00 am)

 

Temperatures will continue to be above normal as surface winds remain out of the east and southeast and an upper level High remains near the region.

GFS Extended MOS Forecast

GFS Extended MOS Forecast

 

Extended Range Outlook:

At the middle upper levels, the trough reloads back into the western U.S.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-6-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-6-14

 

A front is forecast to move into south Florida toward the end of next week (Thursday).

WPC Forecast 2-6-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 2-6-14 (7:00 am)

 

As the front progresses southward through the state, and with the trough re-oriented in the western U.S., the front will lose momentum and may stall near the region or to the south as the GFS model is indicating.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-30-14(12z) at 186 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-30-14(12z) at 186 Hours

 

At this time, there appears to be little significant cooling with this front.  Surface winds veer quickly to the northeast and the maritime influence of the Gulf Stream and Atlantic will modify the air mass.  Minimum temperatures are forecast to be generally in the 60’s.

As the front stalls near the area, the chance of showers will continue over the region.  Additionally, the pressure gradient will tighten behind the front as a surface High progress eastward toward the eastern U.S.  Winds will respond by increasing. Also, as the winds veers to onshore, the risk of rip currents will be on the increase.

As depicted by the GFS forecast model, approximately four days later, another front is forecast to move into the region.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-30-14(12z) at 252 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-30-14(12z) at 252 Hours

 

As it is currently modeled by the GFS, there is better upper level support for this front.  This front will have cooler air than the previous front.  Minimum temperatures are forecast to be mainly in the 50’s and 60’s with some 40’s possible in the northwestern areas.

Again, as the previous front, the pressure gradient tightens behind the front as surface High pressure builds in.  Winds will increase accordingly.

This is more than a week away and susceptible to significant errors.

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

Southeast Florida Weather – Evening Update 1-29-14

Beach_Image100

 

Analysis:

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was clear to partly cloudy becoming partly cloudy to mostly cloudy by very late in the night.  The clouds and showers moved in/developed earlier than forecast.  Showers/rain began moving into and increasing over the area after midnight and spread generally northeastward. The activity mainly affected Miami-Dade and Broward Counties.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

 

Lows were mainly in the low to middle 60’s in Palm Beach County to the middle 60’s to around 70 in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties.  Some areas well inland (mainly in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) had minimum temperatures in the middle 50’s to near 60.  Very light variable to southerly winds became generally calm.

The much talked about Arctic front (weakening) was located over central Florida overnight and making slow southward progression.

During the day, areas of shower/rain affected portions of the region during the morning.  Additionally, fog was increasing over portions of the region.  A Special Weather Statement was issued during the morning to address the hazard.  The showers/rains diminished during the early part of the afternoon and became more focused over southwest Florida. As the afternoon progressed, the showers/rains spread northward and became more focused over the northern portion of the area.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

 

Some areas received locally heavy rains.  Below is 12- hour rainfall estimate ending 4:30 pm this afternoon.  Some areas in Miami-Dade County locally received 3 – 5 inches.  Other areas received 1 – 2 inches.

South Florida 12-Hour Radar Estimate

South Florida 12-Hour
Radar Estimate

 

Maximum temperatures were mainly in the low 70’s to upper 70’s.  Some areas in western Palm Beach County were around upper 60’s to near 70.  Winds were light and variable to calm early.  As the front moved through, winds became northerly around 5 – 15 mph.

The front was moving through south Florida during the day and by late afternoon was located in the extreme south portion.  It was beginning to stall out.

Satellite Imagery Overlaid with Fronts (Late Afternoon)

Satellite Imagery Overlaid with Fronts (Late Afternoon)

 

Low and mid-level moisture increased significantly over the region compared to Tuesday.

Avg. Humidity/Steering Flow 850 mb to 650 mb (Afternoon)

Avg. Humidity/Steering Flow 850 mb to 650 mb (Afternoon)

 

There was a rather large dewpoint temperature gradient across south Florida based on the frontal position.  Ahead of the front, dewpoint temperatures were around 70 to low 70’s and behind the front they were in the 50’s and 60’s.

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

 

Forecast models after showing a downward trend with minimum temperatures for tonight/Thursday morning once again backed off and were slightly warmer today.  Temperature forecasts have been adjusted accordingly.

 

Forecast:

Short Range Forecast:

For tonight, it will be cloudy.  There will be isolated to widely scattered showers/rains.  There may be some increase in activity late tonight.   It may be rather breezy near the coast. Lows will be in the middle 50’s to low 60’s inland to around 60 to the middle 60’s at the metro and coastal areas.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 50 to the low 50’s.  Some of the immediate coastal areas (mainly in Miami-Dade County) may see lows in the upper 60’s.

Update:  11:15 pm:  Fog/low stratus may develop overnight.  Aviation interests and motorists should be on alert and take necessary precaution if encountered.

Winds will be northeast to east northeast at 10 – 20 knots.  Seas will be 2 – 4 feet except 4 – 6 feet in Palm Beach County.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop to choppy in exposed areas in Palm Beach County.  Small Craft Operators should exercise caution in Palm Beach County.

 

In the middle and upper levels, the trough that has been over the eastern US. De-amplifies and retrogrades westward as an upper High builds toward the Florida from the Atlantic.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 1-30-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 1-30-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-1-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-1-14



The front will lose momentum to continue moving southward and will essentially become stationary/quasi-stationary near the area/Florida Straits into Friday.

WPC Forecast 1-30-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 1-30-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 1-31-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 1-31-14 (7:00 am)



A weak surface Low/trough may develop near/east of Florida overnight.  Showers and rain will continue into Thursday possibly shifting northward for a period of time, but looks to fill back in later in the day.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-29-14(12z) at 033 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-29-14(12z) at 033 Hours

 

With the frontal system nearby, the showers/rains look to continue onto Friday.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-29-14(12z) at 048 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-29-14(12z) at 048 Hours

 

Into the weekend, a surface High will become established over the Atlantic.  This will result in winds from the east and southeast over the region.  With sufficient low level moisture and possible subtle low level inverted trough, showers may develop over the region on Saturday.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-29-14(12z) at 081 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-29-14(12z) at 081 Hours

 

It appears that it will be most focused over the interior areas where daytime heating and possible sea breeze convergence may enhance development during the afternoon.

With east and southeast winds, and building upper level High toward the region, temperatures will rise to above normal by the end of the week into the weekend.

 

For Thursday, it will be mostly cloudy.  There will be a good chance to likely showers/rain.  Highs will be in the low 70’s to upper 70’s.  Areas that receive more persistent rains may be in the upper 60’s to around 70.  Lows Thursday night will be in the low 60’s to upper 60’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the middle 50’s to around 60.

Winds will be north to northeast at 10 – 16 knots becoming northeast Thursday night.  Seas will be 3 – 6 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop becoming moderate chop Thursday night.

With winds becoming more onshore, the risk of rip currents may increase, especially later on Thursday.  An update via twitter will be sent out as warranted on Thursday with the rip current risk level

For Friday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy.  There will be widely scattered to scattered showers.  Highs will be in the upper 70’s to the low 80’s.  Lows Friday night will be in the middle 60’s to the low 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s.

Winds will be east northeast to east at 8 – 15 knots.  Seas will be 2 – 5 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop.

With an onshore wind flow, there will be at least a slight to possibly moderate risk of rip currents.  An update via twitter will be sent out on Friday with the rip current risk level.

For Saturday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy.  There will be widely scattered showers.  Highs will be around 80 to the middle 80’s.  Lows Saturday night will be in the middle 60’s to the low 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s.

Winds will be east and southeast at 9 – 16 knots.  Seas will be 2 – 4 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop.

With onshore winds, there will be at least a slight to possibly moderate risk of rip currents.  An update via twitter will be sent out on Saturday with the rip current risk level.

 

Medium Range Outlook:

Early next week in the middle and upper levels, the trough out west will sharpen as the High southeast of Florida shifts northeast.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-3-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-3-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-4-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-4-14



With this pattern, temperatures will continue to be above normal.

Forecast models have delayed the timing of the frontal system moving into the southeastern U.S.  It now looks to occur around the end of the weekend.  With no further support for southward progression, the front stalls over north Florida early next week.

WPC Forecast 2-4-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 2-4-14 (7:00 am)

 

The front may cause the winds to become more southeast during the weekend.  The front will weaken/retreat northward with the Atlantic surface High regains control.  Winds will veer to a more easterly direction early next week.  Patches of moisture will traverse at the base of the surface High and may bring some periodic small increase in chance of showers.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-29-14(12z) at 129 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-29-14(12z) at 129 Hours

 

 

Extended Range Outlook:

In the mid/upper levels, the High shifts eastward as the trough in the western U.S. translates eastward.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-5-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 2-5-14

 

This will give better support for the next frontal system. The GFS model has the front arriving toward the end of next week (around Thursday).

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-29-14(12z) at 192 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-29-14(12z) at 192 Hours

 

Currently, it appears that there will not be significant cooling with this front as winds veer quickly to the northeast.  This will result in the air mass being quickly modified by the maritime influence of the Atlantic and Gulf Stream.

GFS Extended MOS Forecast

GFS Extended MOS Forecast

 

A strong surface High to the north of the front will lead to of the tightening pressure gradient across the region. Winds and seas will accordingly increase.  Small Craft Advisory may be required.  Additionally, as winds become onshore, the risk of rip currents will increase.

The GFS forecast model indicates that there is the potential for another frontal passage about 4 days later.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-29-14(12z) at 288 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 1-29-14(12z) at 288 Hours

 

This front appears to have better support as the upper level trough progresses toward the eastern U.S.  Briefly cooler temperatures may follow the front.

Additionally, winds will once again increase with passage of the frontal system as the pressure gradient tightens.  Small Craft Operators exercise caution and or Small Craft Advisories may be required.  Also, as winds become onshore, the risk of rip currents will be elevated.

These are long range forecasts and are subject to significant errors.

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

 Page 1 of 8  1  2  3  4  5 » ...  Last »