For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was cloudy. Periods of rain/showers was occurring. The activity was shifting/diminishing from south to north as the night progressed. Areas of fog were also occurring.
Minimum temperatures were mostly around 60 to the middle 60’s. Some areas well inland (primarily in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) had lows in the middle and upper 50’s while some of the immediate coastal areas had lows in the upper 60’s as easterly winds developed. Winds were light northwest and north to variable with periods of calm at some location. As the night progressed, winds in some areas (especially the coastal areas) became more easterly.
Fog developed late overnight and became rather extensive during the early morning hours prompting the issuance of Special Weather Statement that expired at 8:00 am.
Thursday night’s soundings indicated PW (Precipitable Water) at 1.99” which is 197% (almost double) of normal for this time of year and essentially the maximum level possible for this time of year.
At this morning’s soundings, the PW fell to 1.82” which is still well above normal. The PW is forecast to continue dropping as drier air works into the region.
During the day, it was generally cloudy with some breaks trying to take place late in the morning. By early afternoon, it became partly sunny to partly cloudy with some areas having cloudy conditions. Most of the showers had shifted to the north of south Florida or were off the southwest coast of Florida. Widely scattered to scattered showers and isolated thundershowers developed during the middle to late afternoon over interior portions mainly in Broward and Palm Beach Counties.
Highs were mostly around 80 to the middle 80’s . Winds were mostly southeast at 5 – 15 mph.
The quasi-stationary front that has been near the area for last couple of days is retreating as a warm front today. Late this afternoon, it was located near Lake Okeechobee.
The mid-level short wave that has been enhancing showers/rain over the area was in the eastern Gulf of Mexico progressing east/northeast toward Florida while dampening out.
In the low and mid-levels, ample moisture was over the region with drier air to the south attempting to work in. Drier air was evident over the Florida panhandle/north Florida.
With warmer temperatures and ample moisture, dewpoint temperatures for south Florida ranged in the middle 60’s to low 70’s.
With abundant low level moisture, fog is a good possibility for tonight. Winds may stay up especially near the coastal areas. Therefore fog will be most prevalent in the interior/western portions of south Florida.
Short Range Forecast:
For tonight, it will be partly cloudy. Fog may develop tonight especially inland. There may be isolated showers. Lows will be in the middle 60’s to low 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s.
Winds will be south southeast to southeast at 9 – 14 knots. Seas will be 2 – 4 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop.
In the middle and upper levels, the positively oriented trough will remain from near Hudson Bay southwest to the western U.S. The short wave in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will cross Florida overnight/Saturday. With the departing shortwave, a 588 DM High will be building into the area.
The quasi-stationary/warm front that has been near the region will continue to retreat northward.
The main moisture axis will shift northward along with the front. This, together with the short wave moving out and with increasing heights will lead to decreasing showers for the region.
With sufficient moisture and daytime heating, some showers may still develop on Saturday especially in the interior portions during the afternoon which may be further aided by sea breeze convergence.
A front will move into the southeast U.S. toward the end of the weekend. The front will lose support and weaken across north Florida/Florida panhandle.
About the only affect to the weather will be winds briefly veering more southeasterly during the weekend.
With an east and southeast flow becoming established together with upper level High nearby, temperatures will warm to above normal levels.
For Saturday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy. There will be isolated showers. Some fog may develop again Saturday night especially in the interior areas. Highs will be around 80 to the middle 80’s. Lows Saturday night will be in the middle 60’s to the low 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s.
Winds will be southeast to east southeast at 8 – 15 knots. Seas will be 2 – 3 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop.
With onshore winds, there will be a slight to possibly moderate risk of rip currents. An update via twitter will be sent out on Saturday with the rip current risk level.
For Sunday, it will be sunny to partly cloudy. There may be some isolated showers late in the day/Sunday night. Highs will be around 80 to the middle 80’s. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the middle 60’s.
Winds will be east southeast and southeast at 7 – 14 knots becoming east southeast to east at 10 – 17 knots Sunday night. Seas will be 2 – 3 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop.
As onshore winds continue, there will be a slight to possibly moderate risk of rip currents. An update via twitter will be sent out on Sunday with the rip current risk level.
For Monday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy with some increase of cloudiness later Monday/Monday night. There may be isolated showers. Highs will be around 80 to the middle 80’s. Lows Monday night will be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the middle 60’s.
Winds will be east and east southeast at 10 – 17 knots. Seas will be 2 – 3 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop.
With onshore winds, there will be a slight to possibly moderate risk of rip currents. An update via twitter will be sent out on Monday with the rip current risk level.
Medium Range Outlook:
The front located in north Florida mentioned in the short term will then retreat back northward as a warm front.
As the front lifts back northward, surface winds become more easterly. Patches of higher moisture in this flow may bring periods of slight increase in shower activity for early next week.
At the mid/upper levels, the mean trough makes some eastward progression from the western/central U.S. toward the central/eastern U.S. as the High retreats somewhat.
This will help to support a front to move into the Florida panhandle around the middle of next week.
Extended Range Outlook:
In the middle and upper levels, the general theme will be a mean trough in the western/central U.S. and a High in the Atlantic poking toward Florida/southeast U.S.
With this flow pattern, storm tracks/weather systems will tend to be from the Texas region northeast toward the northeast U.S.
The front will continue southward into south Florida toward the end of next week (Thursday)
The front loses support for further progression southward (mean trough reloads/retrogrades out west) and it becomes stationary near south Florida.
There will be limited if any cooling with this front as the surface High shifts rapidly to the east and winds veer to the northeast. This will modify the air mass due to the maritime influence of the Atlantic and Gulf Stream.
Some showers will accompany the front and it may linger for a day or so.
A rather strong surface High in the eastern U.S., will lead to the tightening of the pressure gradient. Winds and seas will respond accordingly. With onshore winds, the risk of rip currents will increase.
The GFS forecast model indicates the next potential frontal system 4 to 5 days later.
The GFS model has been flip flopping on how cool it will become with this frontal system. Much of it will depend on the wind flow and how quickly it veers to the northeast. Current thinking is minimum temperatures will range in the 50’s and 60’s.
Climate Index Indicators:
The PNA index has been in the moderate negative phase in the past few days. It is forecast to remain so with some variability between moderate to strong range for next several days and become more neutral toward the middle of the month.
This suggests the current alignment of a trough/ridge across the U.S. will continue with the usual amplification/de-amplification cycles. This is opposite to what has been experienced for the last few weeks where the index was moderate to strong positive and a trough had setup over the eastern U.S.
Troughs are usually associated with cooler/colder conditions while ridges are associated with warmer conditions. During the neutral/near neutral phase, there typically is less amplitude to the flow. Weather systems will generally track west to east and in a high amplitude setup, weather systems can dive out of the northern latitudes (bring cold air) well southward or weather systems from the south (bring warm air) well northward.
An example of this is what was occurring over the U.S. in the past couple of weeks. The western U.S. was experiencing above to well above normal temperatures while the eastern U.S. was experiencing below to well below temperatures.
The AO (Arctic Oscillation) index is rather neutral and is forecast to trend toward a moderate positive phase over the next several days. This would tend to “bottle” up the colder air in the northern Latitudes and less likely to dip far southward. A negative phase would have the tendency for allowing cold air to spill well southward into the U.S. from the northern latitudes.
The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has been largely in the neutral range and is forecast to remain so. A negative phase tends to lead to cold air intrusion for the eastern portion of the U.S.
Below is the forecast 500 mb pattern for the 6 – 10 day and 8 – 14 day period. The graphics indicate that the broad mean trough will initially be in the west central U.S. with progression toward the east central U.S. with some de-amplification possible.
Below is the forecast 6 – 10 day and 8 – 14 day temperature outlook. The theme is for continued above normal temperatures for the area. Below temperatures will be mainly in the central U.S. and the northern part of the county.
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