Happy New Year!
For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was generally partly cloudy to cloudy. Few light showers/sprinkles affected portions of the area. There was a band of showers between the southeast Florida coast and the western Bahamas extending southward into the Florida Straits adjacent to the Florida Keys.
Lows were generally in the middle and upper 60’s. Some areas further inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) had lows around 60 to low 60’s. Winds were mostly light out of the north.
During the day, it was generally partly cloudy to cloudy as a stationary front was just to the south of the area.
Some mostly light showers affected portions of the area. Most of the showers remained offshore the southeast coast extending into the Florida Straits adjacent to the Florida Keys.
Highs were in the middle and upper 70’s. Winds were northeast at 10 – 20 mph with occasionally higher gusts especially near the coast.
Short Range Forecast:
For tonight, it will be generally cloudy. It will be rather breezy especially near the coast. There will be isolated to scattered showers. Lows will be in the middle 60’s to low 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to low 60’s.
Winds will be east northeast at 12 – 21 knots. Seas will be 2 – 4 feet along the coast to 4 – 6 feet occasionally 8 feet in the Gulf Stream. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will be choppy in exposed areas. Small Craft Operators should exercise caution.
The mid/upper level pattern continues to show a High near and to the east with heights around 588 DM and a positive tilted trough extending into Texas into Mexico.
There will be a broad west and southwest flow aloft. At the surface, the front that moved through on Monday is stationary in the Florida Straits. The front is expected to move northward tonight and Wednesday as a surface Low develops in the western Gulf of Mexico.
The surface Low moves to the northeast toward north Florida/panhandle. A front will trail southward from the surface Low. Some shower activity accompanies the front as it moves southeast. It appears that the activity weakens as the surface Low moves away and dynamics diminishes.
By Friday, the mid/upper level trough in the central U.S. progresses eastward and is along the eastern seaboard extending into north Florida.
This will allow for the cold front to move through late Thursday/early Friday through south Florida.
The surface Low continues moving rapidly to near the northeast U.S.where rapid cyclogenesis is expected to occur. Some heavy snows look to occur over portions of the Northeast U.S.
Cooler and drier air will briefly move into the area behind the front. Afternoon temperatures for Friday will be rather cool especially what has been experienced for most of this winter. By later on Friday, winds will be veering to the northeast and warming trend will have commenced with air mass modification due to maritime influence of the Atlantic and Gulf Stream. With winds becoming northeast, there will be wide variation of temperatures between the coastal areas and inland areas.
Strong surface High builds into the eastern U.S. leading to tightening of the pressure gradient. Winds and seas increase accordingly. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required. Additionally, as winds become onshore, the risk of rip currents will increase.
For New Year’s Day, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy. There will be scattered showers around. Highs will be in the upper 70’s to low 80’s. Lows Wednesday night will be in the middle 60’s to low 70’s. Some of the immediate coastal areas may see lows in the middle 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach County) may see lows in the upper 50’s to low 60’s.
Winds will be east at 12 – 18 knots becoming southeast 10 – 18 knots Wednesday night. Seas will be 3 – 5 feet subsiding to 2 – 4 feet Wednesday night. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have moderate chop to choppy in exposed areas subsiding to light to moderate chop Wednesday night.
With moderate onshore winds, there will be risk at least a moderate risk of rip currents. An update via twitter will be sent out on New Year’s Day with the rip current risk level.
For Thursday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy. There will be isolated to widely scattered showers becoming widely scattered to scattered later on Thursday/Thursday night. Highs will be around 80 to low 80’s. Lows Thursday night will be in the low to middle 60’s except upper 60’s near the coast for Miami-Dade and Broward Counties. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the middle 50’s to near 60.
Winds will be south at 12 – 20 knots veering to southwest and west Thursday Evening and becoming northwest after midnight at 15 – 22 knots. Seas will be 2 – 4 feet building to 3 – 6 feet in the Gulf Stream over the north portion (Palm Beach County). Small Craft Operators should exercise caution may be required by later Thursday/Thursday night.
For Friday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy with some increase in cloudiness later on Friday/Friday night. It will be breezy. There will be isolated to widely scattered showers mainly early. Highs will be around 70 to the middle 70’s. Lows Friday night will be in the middle and upper 50’s inland to around 60 to middle 60’s at the metro and coastal areas. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 50 to low 50’s.
Winds will be north at 17 – 26 knots becoming northeast 15 – 24 knots Friday night. Seas will be 4 – 8 feet near the coast to and building to 8 – 12 feet in the Gulf Stream occasionally up to 13/14 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will be choppy becoming rough in exposed areas Friday night. Small Craft Advisory will likely be hoisted.
As winds become onshore later on Friday, the risk of rip currents will increase. An update via twitter will be sent out on Friday with the rip current risk level.
Medium Range Outlook:
As the mid/upper level trough lifts out, another trough sets up in the central U.S. on Sunday.
The front that moved through the area early Friday will become stationary in the Florida Straits/Cuba over the weekend.
Once again, a southwest flow aloft becomes established over the region. With a northeast surface flow and southwest winds aloft plus a stationary front in the Florida Straits will aid with the development of showers for the weekend. Disturbances may move along the front. GFS hints at possible surface trough developing near/east of the region on Sunday.
Extended Range Outlook:
In the mid/upper levels, by next Tuesday, a trough will extend along the eastern U.S. and into north/central Florida with heights sub 576 – 582 DM.
This looks to support a frontal system to move through the area late Monday/early Tuesday.
The GFS and ECMWF forecast models differ on the temperature forecasts rather significantly. The ECMWF model indicates colder air. Although the ECMWF tends to be the more reliable model, with how this winter has played out will favor the GFS for now. The GFS model indicate little cooling with temperatures in the middle 50’s to 60’s while the ECMWF model shows temperatures in the 40’s and 50’s for south Florida. The main difference to temperatures appear due to the winds as the ECMWF keeps a more northerly trajectory to the winds while the GFS has winds veering to the northeast. This is still about a week away, and as the event approaches, better consensus should take place.
Both models do show a strong surface High (1040 mb plus) pressure over the eastern U.S. for the middle of next week. This may significantly increase the pressure gradient and possibly lead to windy conditions. If this verifies, Small Craft Advisories may again be required. Additionally, as winds become onshore, the risk of rip currents will be higher.
The GFS shows a disturbance/perturbation in the Gulf of Mexico moving through the region around Wednesday/Thursday of next week which may lead to more widespread shower activity.
The ECMWF does not go that far out. However, if the ECMWF model verifies with the colder air mass for Tuesday, the GFS solution may be less likely. This is over a week away and is subject to significant errors.
Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.