Southeast Florida Weather – Evening Update 12-31-13

Beach_Image100

 

 

Happy New Year!

 

Analysis:

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was generally partly cloudy to cloudy.  Few light showers/sprinkles affected portions of the area.  There was a band of showers between the southeast Florida coast and the western Bahamas extending southward into the Florida Straits adjacent to the Florida Keys.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

 

Lows were generally in the middle and upper 60’s.  Some areas further inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) had lows around 60 to low 60’s.  Winds were mostly light out of the north.

During the day, it was generally partly cloudy to cloudy as a stationary front was just to the south of the area.

Satellite Image (Late Afternoon)

Satellite Image (Late Afternoon)

 

Some mostly light showers affected portions of the area.  Most of the showers remained offshore the southeast coast extending into the Florida Straits adjacent to the Florida Keys.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

 

Highs were in the middle and upper 70’s.  Winds were northeast at 10 – 20 mph with occasionally higher gusts especially near the coast.

 

Forecast:

Short Range Forecast:

For tonight, it will be generally cloudy.  It will be rather breezy especially near the coast.  There will be isolated to scattered showers.  Lows will be in the middle 60’s to low 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to low 60’s.

Winds will be east northeast at 12 – 21 knots.  Seas will be 2 – 4 feet along the coast to 4 – 6 feet occasionally 8 feet in the Gulf Stream.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will be choppy in exposed areas.  Small Craft Operators should exercise caution.

The mid/upper level pattern continues to show a High near and to the east with heights around 588 DM and a positive tilted trough extending into Texas into Mexico.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 1-1-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 1-1-14

 

There will be a broad west and southwest flow aloft.  At the surface, the front that moved through on Monday is stationary in the Florida Straits.  The front is expected to move northward tonight and Wednesday as a surface Low develops in the western Gulf of Mexico.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-31-13(12z) at 030 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-31-13(12z) at 030 Hours

 

The surface Low moves to the northeast toward north Florida/panhandle.  A front will trail southward from the surface Low.  Some shower activity accompanies the front as it moves southeast.  It appears that the activity weakens as the surface Low moves away and dynamics diminishes.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-31-13(12z) at 072 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-31-13(12z) at 072 Hours

 

By Friday, the mid/upper level trough in the central U.S. progresses eastward and is along the eastern seaboard extending into north Florida.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 1-3-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 1-3-14

 

This will allow for the cold front to move through late Thursday/early Friday through south Florida.

WPC Forecast 1-3-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 1-3-14 (7:00 am)

 

The surface Low continues moving rapidly to near the northeast U.S.where rapid cyclogenesis is expected to occur.  Some heavy snows look to occur over portions of the Northeast U.S.

Cooler and drier air will briefly move into the area behind the front.   Afternoon temperatures for Friday will be rather cool especially what has been experienced for most of this winter.  By later on Friday, winds will be veering to the northeast and warming trend will have commenced with air mass modification due to maritime influence of the Atlantic and Gulf Stream.  With winds becoming northeast, there will be wide variation of temperatures between the coastal areas and inland areas.

Strong surface High builds into the eastern U.S. leading to tightening of the pressure gradient.  Winds and seas increase accordingly. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required.  Additionally, as winds become onshore, the risk of rip currents will increase.

 

For New Year’s Day, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy.  There will be scattered showers around.  Highs will be in the upper 70’s to low 80’s.  Lows Wednesday night will be in the middle 60’s to low 70’s.  Some of the immediate coastal areas may see lows in the middle 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach County) may see lows in the upper 50’s to low 60’s.

Winds will be east at 12 – 18 knots becoming southeast 10 – 18 knots Wednesday night.  Seas will be 3 – 5 feet subsiding to 2 – 4 feet Wednesday night.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have moderate chop to choppy in exposed areas subsiding to light to moderate chop Wednesday night.

With moderate onshore winds, there will be risk at least a moderate risk of rip currents.  An update via twitter will be sent out on New Year’s Day with the rip current risk level.

For Thursday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy.  There will be isolated to widely scattered showers becoming widely scattered to scattered later on Thursday/Thursday night.  Highs will be around 80 to low 80’s.  Lows Thursday night will be in the low to middle 60’s except upper 60’s near the coast for Miami-Dade and Broward Counties.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the middle 50’s to near 60.

Winds will be south at 12 – 20 knots veering to southwest and west Thursday Evening and becoming northwest after midnight at 15 – 22 knots.  Seas will be 2 – 4 feet building to 3 – 6 feet in the Gulf Stream over the north portion (Palm Beach County). Small Craft Operators should exercise caution may be required by later Thursday/Thursday night.

For Friday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy with some increase in cloudiness later on Friday/Friday night.  It will be breezy.  There will be isolated to widely scattered showers mainly early.  Highs will be around 70 to the middle 70’s.  Lows Friday night will be in the middle and upper 50’s inland to around 60 to middle 60’s at the metro and coastal areas.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 50 to low 50’s.

Winds will be north at 17 – 26 knots becoming northeast 15 – 24 knots Friday night.  Seas will be 4 – 8 feet near the coast to and building to 8 – 12 feet in the Gulf Stream occasionally up to 13/14 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will be choppy becoming rough in exposed areas Friday night.  Small Craft Advisory will likely be hoisted.

As winds become onshore later on Friday, the risk of rip currents will increase.  An update via twitter will be sent out on Friday with the rip current risk level.

 

Medium Range Outlook:

As the mid/upper level trough lifts out, another trough sets up in the central U.S. on Sunday.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 1-5-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 1-5-14

 

The front that moved through the area early Friday will become stationary in the Florida Straits/Cuba over the weekend.

WPC Forecast 1-5-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 1-5-14 (7:00 am)

 

Once again, a southwest flow aloft becomes established over the region.  With a northeast surface flow and southwest winds aloft plus a stationary front in the Florida Straits will aid with the development of showers for the weekend.  Disturbances may move along the front.  GFS hints at possible surface trough developing near/east of the region on Sunday.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-31-13(12z) at 105 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-31-13(12z) at 105 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-31-13(12z) at 120 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-31-13(12z) at 120 Hours



Extended Range Outlook:

In the mid/upper levels, by next Tuesday, a trough will extend along the eastern U.S. and into north/central Florida with heights sub 576 – 582 DM.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 1-7-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 1-7-14

 

This looks to support a frontal system to move through the area late Monday/early Tuesday.

WPC Forecast 1-7-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 1-7-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 1-6-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 1-6-14 (7:00 am)



The GFS and ECMWF forecast models differ on the temperature forecasts rather significantly. The ECMWF model indicates colder air.  Although the ECMWF tends to be the more reliable model, with how this winter has played out will favor the GFS for now.  The GFS model indicate little cooling with temperatures in the middle 50’s to 60’s while the ECMWF model shows temperatures in the 40’s and 50’s for south Florida.  The main difference to temperatures appear due to the winds as the ECMWF keeps a more northerly trajectory to the winds while the GFS has winds veering to the northeast.  This is still about a week away, and as the event approaches, better consensus should take place.

Both models do show a strong surface High (1040 mb plus) pressure over the eastern U.S. for the middle of next week.  This may significantly increase the pressure gradient and possibly lead to windy conditions.  If this verifies, Small Craft Advisories may again be required.  Additionally, as winds become onshore, the risk of rip currents will be higher.

The GFS shows a disturbance/perturbation in the Gulf of Mexico moving through the region around Wednesday/Thursday of next week which may lead to more widespread shower activity.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-31-13(12z) at 204 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-31-13(12z) at 204 Hours

 

The ECMWF does not go that far out.  However, if the ECMWF model verifies with the colder air mass for Tuesday, the GFS solution may be less likely. This is over a week away and is subject to significant errors.

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

Southeast Florida Weather – Evening Update 12-30-13

Beach_Image100

 

Analysis:

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was generally partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy.  Some sites reported clear conditions at times.  Some fog developed over the region most widespread over the interior portions.  A Dense Fog Advisory was issued, but later cancelled as the fog had lifted. There were some isolated showers over the mainland early last night, but most of had either dissipated or moved offshore.  A band of showers had developed off the southeast Florida coast that was moving eastward.  Other showers formed near the Florida Keys and adjacent waters.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

 

A weakening cold front was located near Lake Okeechobee.  Lows were generally upper 60’s to low 70’s with some of the well inland areas (mainly Palm Beach and Broward Counties) around 60 to middle 60’s.  Winds were very light mostly out of the southwest and west with periods of calm.

During the day, it was mostly cloudy early with some breaks occurring by late morning to become partly sunny to partly cloudy.  By later in the afternoon, there was increasing cloudiness.  There were isolated to widely scattered light showers over the area.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

 

The clouds aided to temper today’s high temperatures. Highs were mostly in the middle 70’s to around 80.  Winds were light and variably to northwest and north with a northeast breeze at times in the afternoon.

Late this afternoon, the front that moved into south Florida earlier today had slipped just to the south of the region becoming nearly stationary.

Satellite Image with Fronts Overlaid (Afternoon)

Satellite Image with Fronts Overlaid (Afternoon)

 

In the low and middle levels, some drier air was filtering in behind the front with moist air near and ahead of the front.

Average Humidity/Steering Flow 850 mb to 650 mb (Afternoon)

Average Humidity/Steering Flow 850 mb to 650 mb (Afternoon)

 

Dewpoint temperatures had fallen behind the front, but continued to be above 70 degrees near and ahead of the front.

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

 

 

Forecast:

Short Range Forecast:

For tonight, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy.  There will be isolated to widely scattered showers.  Lows will be in the low to middle 60’s in Palm Beach County to middle and upper 60’s in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties.  The immediate coastal areas may see around 70.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the middle 50’s to around 60.

Winds will be northeast at 8 – 16 knots.  Seas will be 2 – 4 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light to moderate chop.

 

The mid/upper level pattern will begin with a trough lifting away from the U.S. east coast with a Low hanging back over Mexico and a rather persistent High near the region with heights near 588 DM.  This continues to thwart cool/cold air intrusion into the region providing limited support for frontal systems.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 12-31-13

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 12-31-13

 

The cold front that moved into south Florida earlier today will become stationary in the Florida Straits with a surface Low developing in the western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. There will be isolated to widely scattered showers.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-30-13(12z) at 030 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-30-13(12z) at 030 Hours

 

A rather strong surface High builds behind the front on Tuesday leading to tightening pressure gradient.  Winds and seas will rise accordingly.  Also, with winds becoming onshore, the risk of rip currents will increase.

On New Year’s Day, the front will retreat back northward as the surface Low moves northeast. There will be a better chance of showers.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-30-13(12z) at 057 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-30-13(12z) at 057 Hours

 

By Thursday, the northern and southern streams will phase and the mid/upper level trough will progress from the central U.S. toward the eastern U.S. while the High is shunted east and south with some weakening.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 1-2-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 1-2-14

 

The surface Low will move into the Florida panhandle and continue moving northeast with an attending cold front.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-30-13(12z) at 078 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-30-13(12z) at 078 Hours

 

Forecast models are coming more in line with the idea of strong cyclogenesis will take place near the Northeast U.S. with the mid/upper level support.  There may be some significant snows for portions of that region.

Most of the moisture will lift northward out of the region on Thursday with increasing moisture later on Thursday as the frontal system advances southward toward the region.

Forecast models are not as aggressive as they were a few days ago regarding the level of cooling behind the front.  Also, there continues to be discrepancies among the various forecast models on how cool it will get.  Current thinking is that it will briefly bring temperatures to more normal levels.

Another strong surface High will build to the north of the front which will tighten the pressure gradient.  Winds and seas will increase accordingly.  Small Craft Advisories may be needed for portion if not all of the area.

 

For New Year’s Eve, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy.  It will be breezy especially near the coast.  There will be isolated to widely scattered showers.  Highs will be in the middle and upper 70’s.  Lows New Year’s Eve night will be middle 60’s to low 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward County) may see lows around 60 to low 60’s.

Winds will be northeast at 15 – 21 knots becoming east northeast Tuesday night.  Seas will be 2 – 5 feet near the coast to 4 – 6 feet occasionally up to 8 feet in the Gulf Stream.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will be choppy in exposed areas.  Small Craft Operators Exercise Caution will probably be necessary.

As winds increase and become more onshore, the risk of rip currents will be at least moderate to possibly high.  An update via twitter will be sent out on Tuesday with the rip current risk level.

For New Year’s Day, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy.  There will be widely scattered to scattered showers.  Highs will be in the upper 70’s to low 80’s.  Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s.  Some of the immediate coastal areas may see lows around the middle 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach County) may see lows in the low to middle 60’s.

Winds will be east 11 – 16 knots becoming southeast Wednesday night.  Seas will be 3 – 5 feet subsiding to 2 – 4 feet Wednesday night.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop.

With moderate east and southeast winds, there will probably be a moderate risk of rip currents.  An update via twitter will be sent out on New Year’s Day with the rip current risk level.

For Thursday, it will be partly cloudy to partly cloudy.  There will be isolated to widely scattered showers becoming more numerous later in the day/night.  It will become breezy Thursday night especially near the coast.  Highs will be near 80 to low 80’s.  Lows Thursday night will be around 60 the low to middle 60’s in Palm Beach County to middle and upper 60’s in Miami-Dade and Broward County.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the middle 50’s and upper 50’s.

Winds will be south at 11 – 17 knots becoming westerly Thursday evening and then shifting northwest and north Thursday night at 14 – 22 knots.  Seas will be 2 – 3 feet building to 5 – 8 feet in Palm Beach County and 2 – 5 feet in in the southern portion (Miami-Dade and Broward  Counties) Thursday night.  Small Craft Advisories may be hoisted later on Thursday for portions of the area with Small Craft Operators Exercise Caution elsewhere.

 

Medium Range Outlook:

By Friday, the mid/upper level trough becomes negatively tilted and moves offshore the eastern U.S. Heights fall to around 582 DM

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 1-3-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 1-3-14

 

This should give enough support for the cold front to move through the area late Thursday/early Friday.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-30-13(12z) at 099 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-30-13(12z) at 099 Hours

 

Friday may feel rather cool (especially compared to what has been experienced this winter) with high temperatures in the upper 60’s to middle 70’s.  With winds veering fairly rapidly to the northeast, the air mass will become modified by the maritime influence of the Atlantic and Gulf Stream and it will be just a brief cool down.

As mentioned in the Short Term Forecast, with a strong surface High building behind the front, there will be a period of breezy/windy conditions with elevated seas.  This looks to continue into the first half of the weekend.  Additionally, as winds are onshore, the risk of rip currents will be higher.  There will be moderate to possibly at times high risk of rip currents.

As the trough lifts out, the flow becomes zonal to west southwest.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 1-4-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 1-4-14

 

The front will lose support and will probably stall in the Florida Straits/Cuba.  This has been a rather typical phenomenon this winter season.

WPC Forecast 1-5-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 1-5-14 (7:00 am)

 

With the frontal system nearby, there may be the risk of showers for the weekend.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-30-13(12z) at 150 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-30-13(12z) at 150 Hours

 

Extended Range Outlook:

Another mid/upper level trough takes shape in the Central U.S. and it progresses east toward the eastern U.S for next Monday.

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 1-6-14

500 mb (Mid-Level) Flow 1-6-14

 

This may support another frontal system to move into Florida for next Monday.

WPC Forecast 1-6-14 (7:00 am)

WPC Forecast 1-6-14 (7:00 am)

 

Looking further out, although there are major cold outbreaks occurring over portions of the U.S., the mid/upper level pattern has not favored the intrusion of cold air into the region as the southern extension of the trough has flatten out due to persistent High near the region.  This has kept the region in a more zonal (west to east) flow aloft.   It appears that above normal temperatures will continue in the 6 – 10 day range and 8 – 14 day range.  Below is the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) temperature forecast.

6 – 10 Day Temperature Outlook

6 – 10 Day Temperature Outlook

8 – 14 Day Temperature Outlook

8 – 14 Day Temperature Outlook



Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

Southeast Florida Weather – Morning Update 12-29-13

Beach_Image100

 

A cold front extending southward across the Florida panhandle into the eastern Gulf of Mexico from a surface Low over the Southeast U.S. is  moving southeast.

Satellite Image (Morning)

Satellite Image (Morning)

 

A band of showers and thundershowers ahead of the front will be moving eastward toward south Florida.

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Morning)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Morning)

 

The short range forecast indicates that showers and isolated thundershowers will move into the western and northern areas of the region around late morning to early afternoon while weakening.  The activity continues to weaken while slowing down and reaches the southern areas by middle afternoon/evening.

HRRR Forecast Model (Noon)

HRRR Forecast Model (11:00 am)

HRRR Forecast Model (6:00 pm)

HRRR Forecast Model (5:00 pm)

 

 



Southwest winds aloft is blowing the cloud tops across the region well in advance of the activity which will result in mostly cloudy conditions over the area today.

With the cloudiness and showers/rain, high temperatures will be tempered.  It will be in the upper 70’s low 80’s.  A few locations may reach the middle 80’s mainly in the southern regions.  Overnight lows will be in the middle 60’s to low 70’s.  Some of the well inland areas (especially in Palm Beach County) may see lows in the upper 50’s to low 60’s.

Until winds and seas subside later today, Small Craft Operators should exercise caution including Biscayne Bay.  Additionally, with moderate onshore winds, there is a moderate risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches of southeast Florida.

The cold front will slow down as it progresses southeast and become nearly stationary near/south of south Florida tonight and Monday as it loses support.

WPC Forecast 12-30-13 (1:00 am)

WPC Forecast 12-30-13 (1:00 am)

WPC Forecast 12-30-13 (7:00 pm)

WPC Forecast 12-30-13 (7:00 pm)



With the front nearby, the chance of showers will linger into New Year’s Day and the rest of the work week.

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-29-13(12z) at 042 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-29-13(12z) at 042 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-29-13(12z) at 066 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 12-29-13(12z) at 066 Hours



Another frontal system looks to impact the area around Friday.  Some cooler and drier air is expected with this frontal system, however forecast models have not been consistent with their solutions.  The way this winter has been, would not expect significant cooling, but should bring temperatures more back to normal/possibly slightly below normal.  Will need to monitor future forecast model runs regarding magnitude of cooling.

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

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