Southeast Florida Weather – Evening Update 10-31-13

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Analysis:

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was generally partly cloudy.  Isolated to widely scattered showers moving rapidly westward affected portions of the area.  A few other showrs were over the Florida Straits and portions of the Florida Keys and adjacent waters.

 

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

 

Lows were generally around 70 to upper 70’s.  Areas further inland had lows in the 60’s, with some areas in western Palm Beach County around 60 to low 60’s. Winds were generally easterly at 10 – 15 mph with gusts to around 20 mph early, but diminished as the night progressed.  By late night, winds were mostly light easterly to periods of calm further inland.  The easterly winds near the coast helped to keep the temperatures in the upper 70’s with the maritime influence.

During the day, it was sunny to partly sunny with some areas having partly conditions at times. Isolated to widely scattered showers affected portions of the area during the morning. These showers had diminished by late morning.  Other showers were developing over the Atlantic and moved ashore from time to time during the afternoon into the evening.

 

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Afternoon)

 

Highs were mostly in the middle 80’s. Some areas near the coast were in the low 80’s.  A few locations reached the upper 80’s. Winds were generally east and southeast at 10 – 15 mph.  There were some higher gusts mostly earlier in the afternoon.

As temperature and moisture has risen, so has the dewpoint temperatures.  Some areas were approaching the 70 degree mark across south Florida.  Dewpoint temperatures 70 to low 70’s were approaching the lower east coast areas.  This has resulted in being less comfortable conditions as compared in prior days.

 

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

Surface Dewpoint Temperatures (Afternoon)

 

 

 

Forecast:

For tonight, it will be clear to partly cloudy.  There may be isolated to possibly widely scattered showers.  Lows will be upper 60’s to middle 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach County) may see lows in the middle 60’s.

Winds will be east southeast and southeast at 10 – 16 knots.  Seas will be 2 – 3 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop.

 

Upper level heights will gradually decline beginning later on Friday as an upper level trough moves into the eastern U.S. This will cause the upper level High to flatten which will help to reduce the subsidence and weaken the cap over the area.  This trough will also support a cold front.  As the cold front advances eastward, the surface high will shift eastward into the Atlantic allowing the winds to veer more to the southeast and eventually southwest by Saturday.

Some moisture and warmer conditions will move into the area.  With higher moisture, there may be a better chance of showers (still rather low).

 

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 10-31-13(12z) at 033 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 10-31-13(12z) at 033 Hours

 

Dewpoint will increase accordingly and it will become less comfortable.  With highs by Saturday in the upper 80’s and dewpoint temperatures into the low and possibly middle 70’s, heat indices may reach low to middle 90’s in some areas.  If clouds move in earlier, it may not be as warm.

The above mentioned cold front is forecast to move into north Florida on Saturday morning and move into southeast Florida Saturday evening.

 

WPC Forecast 11-2-13 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 11-2-13 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 11-2-13 (8:00 pm)

WPC Forecast 11-2-13 (8:00 pm)



As the front progresses southward, the associated cloudiness and rainfall will be weakening and by the time it gets into southern portion, the band will be much weaker to possibly broken.

 

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 10-31-13(12z) at 063 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 10-31-13(12z) at 063 Hours

 

As the front moves into the Florida Straits, it will be stalling.

 

For Friday, it will be partly sunny.  There will be isolated to widely scattered showers.  Highs will be in the middle to upper 80’s.  Lows Friday night will be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s.  Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach County) may see lows in the middle 60’s.

Winds will be southeast and south southeast at 8 – 14 knots becoming south southeast and south Friday night at 5 – 12 knots.  Seas will be around 2 feet to 3 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop.

For Saturday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy. There will be widely scattered showers.  It will become breezy to windy especially near the coast Saturday night as the front moves through.  Highs will be in the middle and upper 80’s.  Lows Saturday night will be in the low to middle 60’s well inland to low 70’s near the coastal areas.

Winds will be south southwest and southwest at 7 – 13 knots becoming west at 7 – 13 knots Saturday night.  Seas will be Seas will be around 2 feet.  After midnight Saturday night, winds become northerly at 13 – 19 knots.  Seas will build to 2 – 5 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne will have a light chop.

For Sunday, it will be partly cloudy.  There will be isolated to widely scattered showers mainly in the southern portions and coastal areas.  It will become breezy to possibly windy especially near the coast.  Highs will be around 80 to low 80’s. Some areas may reach the middle 80’s.  Lows will be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s.  Areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach County) may see lows in the low to middle 60’s.

Winds will be north northeast at 14 – 20 knots with seas of 3 – 6 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop to choppy in exposed areas.  Sunday night, winds will be east northeast at 17 – 23 knots.  Seas will be 4 – 6 feet and occasionally up to 8/9 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will be choppy to rough in exposed areas.  Small craft operators may need to exercise caution for a portion if not all of the areas.  Additionally, a small craft advisory may be required for portion of the area.

With increasing northeast winds, the risk of rip currents will increase.  There will probably be at least a moderate risk of rip currents to possibly a high risk of rip currents.  An update via twitter will be sent Sunday morning with the rip current risk level.

 

The front will become nearly stationary in the Florida Straits/Cuba.  The front will remain near the general area through around the middle of the week.

 

WPC Forecast 11-4-13 (8:00 am)

WPC Forecast 11-4-13 (8:00 am)

 

Drier air will move in behind the front. Current indications are for dewpoint temperatures to fall into the middle 50’s into the 60’s over the area on Sunday. This will make it feel more comfortable and will be noticeable between Saturday and Sunday.  However, it will not last long.  It will last around couple of days.

The GFS forecast model has been indicating that the moisture/front may backup into the region early in the week leading to possible showers especially in the southern portion.

 

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 10-31-13(12z) at 120 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 10-31-13(12z) at 120 Hours

 

As it has been mentioned in the last few posts, the pressure gradient between a building high to the north and lower pressures over the Caribbean will be tightening early next week. Winds will respond by increasing to becoming breezy to windy.  Seas will increase accordingly.  Small craft operators may need to exercise caution or a small craft advisory may be required for portions if not all of the area.  Boaters and marine interests should monitor future marine weather forecasts.  Additionally, this will once again increase the risk of rip currents.  There will probably be at least a moderate risk to possibly high risk of rip currents.  Swimmers and beach goers should also monitor future forecasts and heed the advice of lifeguards and beach patrol.

 

Upper level High will setup near Florida/southeast U.S. coast early next week and will hang around for at least a few days if not more.  This will lead to above normal temperatures especially for the lows. This same high will result in above normal temperatures for the eastern U.S. for next week.

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

Tropical Weather Analysis 10-31-13

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The tropics continue to be quiet.  In today’s tropical weather analysis, the NHC (National Hurricane Center) is monitoring one tropical wave.

The tropical wave is located in the western Caribbean extending southward from just east of the Yucatan peninsula southward into Central America.  It is moving to the west at 15 – 20 knots.  There is little in the way of cloudiness and convection over the Caribbean, however, there is some over Central America.

There is an upper level in the southern Caribbean between Hispaniola and the north coast of South America. The upper level Low in conjunction with a surface trough near the eastern Caribbean is generating a rather large area of cloudiness and showers that extend northeastward for several hundred miles across Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands.  Some forecast models have intermittently been showing a surface Low to develop in that general area for the last few several days.

 

Below is the surface analysis of the tropical Atlantic for this afternoon.

 

Tropical Atlantic Surface Analysis (2:00 pm)

Tropical Atlantic Surface Analysis (2:00 pm)

 

Below is the animated satellite imagery of the tropical Atlantic for this afternoon.

 

Animated Satellite Imagery

Animated Satellite Imagery

 

 

Click here for the latest information from the National Hurricane Center.

 

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

Southeast Florida Weather Halloween Forecast

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Quick forecast for Halloween festivities.  Currently, there is a batch of cloudiness near the western Bahamas that is advancing westward toward the region.  This may affect portions of the area during the afternoon.

 

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Morning)

 

Although there has been isolated to widely scattered showers over the area during the morning, the trend in the past hour or so indicates it is decreasing.  The short term model indicates that this will continue into the early afternoon.

 

 

Forecast Composite Reflectivity (1:00 pm)

Forecast Composite Reflectivity (1:00 pm)

 

However, later this afternoon and into the evening, some showers may develop over the Atlantic and move westward toward the region.

 

Forecast Composite Reflectivity (7:00 pm)

Forecast Composite Reflectivity (7:00 pm)

 

The showers should be generally isolated to widely scattered in nature and generally light to possibly moderate.  Movement has been fairly quickly, but expect some slowing down as the wind flow diminishes.  Outside of shower areas, it clear to partly cloudy.

Temperatures this evening should around upper 70’s to low 80’s.  Areas further inland may see temperatures a few degrees cooler.

 

I will have a complete forecast later this evening.

 

Happy Halloween!

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

 

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