Southeast Florida Weather 9-30-13

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Analysis:

For southeast Florida weather, during the day, it was mostly sunny to partly sunny.  Scattered showers occurred over interior/western portions of Miami-Dade County and southwest Florida.

 

Animated Radar (Late Afternoon)

Animated Radar (Late Afternoon)

 

Highs were mostly in the middle to upper 80’s with few locations reaching 90 to low 90’s.  Winds were generally east and southeast at 5 – 15 mph with occasionally higher gusts during the afternoon.

 

Forecast:

For tonight, it will be clear to partly cloudy. There will be isolated to widely scattered showers.  Lows will be low 70’s to upper 70’s.  Some areas well Inland may drop into the upper 60’s to around 70 (especially in Palm Beach County).

Winds will be easterly at 7 – 13 knots.  Seas will be 2 – 4 feet and up to 5 feet in Palm Beach County.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop.

 

Tuesday will be similar to today, with possibly little more coverage of showers and few thundershowers as moisture creeps northward from the Caribbean.

 

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 9-30-13(12z) at 033 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 9-30-13(12z) at 033 Hours

 

With an easterly wind flow regime, afternoon and evening showers will be favored over the interior and western portions of south Florida.  Additionally, best coverage will also be there with daytime heating and sea breeze interaction/convergence.

Moisture increases further on Wednesday and there should be better coverage of showers and thundershowers.

 

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 9-30-13(12z) at 057 Hours

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 9-30-13(12z) at 057 Hours

 

However, models continue the trend with the system being further west and therefore best coverage may remain to the south and west of the region.  Will need to continue to monitor future model runs to fine tune the forecast.  Click here to visit the Hurricane and Tropical Weather page for additional information.

 

For Tuesday, it will be partly sunny.  There will be widely scattered to scattered showers and thundershowers.  Highs will be in the middle 80’s to near 90.  Lows Tuesday night will be low 70’s to upper 70’s.

Winds will be easterly 7 – 12 knots becoming 8 – 14 knots Tuesday night.  Seas will be 2 – 4 feet and up to 5 feet in Palm Beach County.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light to moderate chop.

With an onshore wind flow, there will be the risk of rip currents along the southeast Florida Atlantic beaches.  There will be at least a slight risk of rip currents.  An update via twitter will be sent if there is a change to the rip current risk level.

For Wednesday, it will be partly cloudy to variably cloudy.  There will be scattered showers and isolated thundershowers.  Highs will be in the middle 80’s to near 90.  Lows Wednesday night will be in the low 70’s to upper 70’s.

Winds will be east northeast and east 9 – 13 knots.  Seas will be 2 – 4 feet and up to 5 feet in Palm Beach County.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop.

With an easterly wind flow, there will be the risk of rip currents along the southeast Florida Atlantic beaches.  There will be at least a slight risk of rip currents to possibly moderate  risk of rip currents.  An update via twitter will be sent if there is a change to the rip current risk level.

For Thursday, it will be partly cloudy to variably cloudy.  There will be widely scattered to scattered showers and isolated thundershowers.  Highs will be in the middle 80’s to near 90.  Lows Thursday night will be in the low 70’s to upper 70’s.

Winds will be easterly at 8 – 13 knots.  Seas will be 2 – 3 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light to moderate chop.

With an onshore wind flow, there will be the risk of rip currents along the southeast Florida Atlantic beaches.  There will be at least a slight risk of rip currents.  An update via twitter will be sent if there is a change to the rip current risk level.

 

For the remainder of the week, there continues to be uncertainty regarding the evolution and track of the disturbance in the western Caribbean.  The forecast models have continued with tracking the system further west and are not as bullish on development.  With a track further westward, the best coverage will shift west. However, with the region being on the east side of the system, tropical moisture will be drawn northward therefore continuing the chance of showers and thundershowers.

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

Tropical Weather Analysis 9-30-13

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In today’s tropical weather analysis, the NHC (National Hurricane Center) is monitoring two tropical waves, tropical storm Jerry and a broad area of Low pressure in the western Caribbean.

The first tropical wave is located about half way between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.  It is moving west around 15 knots.  There is cloudiness and clusters of convection associated with it.

The second tropical wave is little east of due south of the Cape Verde Islands.  It is moving west at 20 knots.  There is some cloudiness and convection in the southern portion of the wave.  SAL (Saharan Air Layer) is entrained into the northern portion of the wave.  SAL tends to hinder convection as the air is dry and stable.

Tropical depression Eleven strengthened to Tropical storm Jerry this morning.  It is in the central Atlantic approximately 1,250 miles east of Bermuda.  Winds are at 40 mph and it is moving east at 7 mph.  As a High builds to the north/northwest of the storm, it is forecast to make anti-cyclonic loop during the next couple of days before another mid-level trough approaches and take it northeastward.

 

Tropical Storm Jerry NHC Graphics

Tropical Storm Jerry NHC Graphics

 

The broad area of Low pressure in the western Caribbean has not changed much during the day.  It is located a couple hundred miles to the southwest of Jamaica.  It is moving slowly northwest. Some wind shear continues in portions of the area, but appears to have lessened.  Upper level dry air remains in the northwest Caribbean, but has moistened.

The evening’s animated satellite imagery shows increasing convection near the low level center as it may be taking advantage of DMAX (Diurnal Maximum). This occurs at night time.  The air above the water cools more quickly than the waters which allow air to rise and promotes convective development.

 

Animated Satellite Imagery - Invest 97 (Evening)

Animated Satellite Imagery – Invest 97 (Evening)

 

Track guidance has not changed much with a continued northwest motion toward the northwest Caribbean and into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

The NHC is giving the system a low (20%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours and medium (30%) chance of developing within the next five days.

 

NHC Graphical Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook (8:00 pm)

NHC Graphical Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook (8:00 pm)

 

Below is the surface analysis of the tropical Atlantic for this afternoon.

 

Tropical Atlantic Surface Analysis (2:00 pm)

Tropical Atlantic Surface Analysis (2:00 pm)

 

Below is the animated satellite imagery of the tropical Atlantic for this afternoon.

 

Animated Satellite Imagery

Animated Satellite Imagery

 

 

Click here for the latest information from the National Hurricane Center.

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

Southeast Florida Weather – Morning Update 9-30-13

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For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was mostly clear to partly cloudy.   No showers were detected over the area.  A band of showers extended west northwest to east southeast across portions of the Florida Keys into the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic and Florida Straits.  The individual elements were moving northwest while the area indicated little to slight northward movement.

 

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

Animated Radar with Satellite Overlaid (Early Morning)

 

Lows were mostly around upper 60’s to middle 70’s.  Some areas well inland south of Lake Okeechobee had temperatures in the middle 60’s while areas near the coastal areas were in the upper 70’s to near 80. Winds were light east/southeast to variable with periods of calm.

In the upper levels, higher moisture over the southeast U.S. and portions of the Gulf of Mexico was spreading eastward into Florida.

 

Animated Water Vapor Imagery (Early Morning)

Animated Water Vapor Imagery (Early Morning)

 

In the low to middle levels, some drier air has moved into portions of south Florida. This resulted with some better radiational cooling and together with light winds allowed temperatures to fall into the 60’s over portions of the interior.

 

Average Humidity / Steering Flow 850 mb to 650 mb (Morning)

Average Humidity / Steering Flow 850 mb to 650 mb (Morning)

 

As indicated in the above map, there is a general northwest and west flow in the northern portion of the region and a southeast flow in the southern portion of the region.  This southeast flow has been shifting northward which should allow for more moisture to work into the area.  The flow is rather light.

Currently, it is mostly sunny to partly sunny.  The band of showers continues across portions of the Florida Keys and adjacent Gulf and Atlantic waters.

 

Animated Radar (Morning)

Animated Radar (Morning)

 

Today it will be mostly partly sunny.  There will be widely scattered to scattered showers and isolated thundershower (most likely inland).  Highest coverage should be in the southern areas. It appears that there will be little more coverage today than on Sunday.

 

Highs will be mostly in the middle 80’s to upper 80’s. Lows tonight will be around 70 to middle 70’s with some areas well inland dropping into the upper 60’s (mainly in Palm Beach County).

Winds will be east northeast 6 – 16 mph.  Seas will be around 2 – 3 feet.  As it is usual, winds along with seas may be higher near showers and isolated thundershowers.

With an onshore wind there is a slight risk of rip currents mainly along the Palm Beach County Atlantic beaches.  Swimmers should heed the advice of Lifeguards and Beach Patrol.

PW (Precipitable Water) as of this morning’s soundings is at a below normal 1.5”.  This is 80% of normal for this time of year. It is indicative of the drier air that has moved in.

Tuesday, some higher moisture begins to advance northward from the Caribbean.   This will lead to increased coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms especially over southern areas. Again, highest coverage should be over the interior and western portions of south Florida.

Moisture continues advancing northward from the Caribbean with better coverage of showers and thundershowers on Wednesday.  Forecast models have delayed on the timing of the increased moisture and it will be gradually increasing.  Wednesday and Thursday looks to be scattered in nature and by the end of the week may become likely.  This will depend on the evolution and track of a disturbed weather area in the western Caribbean.  Models have been trending further west with the system.   Eventually, the system should get picked up by an upper level trough approaching from the west.

 

A quick look at the tropics indicates a couple of areas of interests.

Tropical depression Eleven continues in the central Atlantic about 1,150 miles east southeast of Bermuda with little change in strength. Winds remain near 35 mph.  Most of the deep convection is on the eastern semicircle. There appears to be more convection this morning.  There remains an opportunity for it becoming a tropical storm over the next couple of days.  It is moving east at about 5 mph.  It is expected to make an anti-cyclonic loop as a High pressure temporarily builds to the north before the next upper level trough approaches it and causes it to turn to the northeast.

 

Tropical Depression Eleven NHC Graphics

Tropical Depression Eleven NHC Graphics

 

A weak broad surface Low (invest 97L) continues in the western Caribbean approximately couple hundred miles to the south southwest of Jamaica.  It appears to be little more consolidated this morning compared to last couple of days. A look at the 850 mb vorticity indicates it is an elongated system.  However, it appears slightly more focused from earlier this morning on the northern portion    Broad cyclonic rotation continues as indicated by the animated satellite imagery below.

 

Animated Satellite Imagery – Invest 97L (Morning)

Animated Satellite Imagery – Invest 97L (Morning)

 

Wind shear appears to have decreased allowing for more consolidation of clouds and clusters of convection.

The system will be moving in a general northwest motion toward the northwest Caribbean where environmental conditions may be little more conducive for further development.     Although it is in a moist upper level environment, the northwest Caribbean remains dry, however some moistening has occurred.  Wind shear appears to be less in portions of the northwest Caribbean.

Below is the Early-cycle Track Guidance for track and intensity as of 12z (8:00 am).

 

Invest 97L Early-cycle Track Guidance - 12z (8:00 am)

Invest 97L Early-cycle Track Guidance – 12z (8:00 am)

 

The National Hurricane Center is giving low (10%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours and medium (30%) chance of developing within the next five days.

 

NHC Graphical Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook (8:00 am)

NHC Graphical Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook (8:00 am)

 

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

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