Southeast Florida Weather 8-31-13

Southeast Florida Weather

 

Analysis:

For southeast Florida weather, during the day, it was mostly sunny to partly sunny early.  Around early afternoon, showers and thunderstorms were developing just inland from the coast mainly in Broward County.  As the afternoon progressed, areal coverage and intensity increased.

 

Animated Radar (Afternoon)

Animated Radar (Afternoon)

 

The National Weather Service was quite busy during the afternoon as some of the activity became strong.  Several Weather Statements were issued for gusty winds, excessive lighting, possible hail and for possible development of funnel clouds.  Hail was reported in the Pembroke Pines area.  Additionally, some of the storms were producing very heavy rainfall and Flood Advisory was issued for portions of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties.

As indicated in this morning’s update, with the upper Low over the area, temperatures aloft (500 mb) cooled to around -8° C which resulted in a more unstable atmosphere.  Additionally, there was more moisture around both aloft and lower levels.  And finally, the region was on the diffluent side of the Low.  All of these ingredients made it prime for an active afternoon.  Below is the animated water vapor imagery depicting the upper level Low.

 

Animated Water Vapor Imagery (Afternoon)

Animated Water Vapor Imagery (Afternoon)

 

High temperatures were mostly upper 80’s to low 90’s with a few areas reaching middle 90’s while few coastal areas were in the middle 80’s.  Heat indices ranged from middle 90’s to near 100.

 

Forecast:

For tonight, it will be partly cloudy.  There will isolated to widely scattered shower or thundershower.  Lows will be in the middle to upper 70’s.  Some well inland areas may drop to around 70 to low 70’s.

Winds will be south southeast at 5 – 15 mph.  Seas will be 2 – 3 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop.

 

The upper level Low that has been around south Florida for the last several days’ looks like will finally get “out of our hair” as it moves west and weakens. This will allow for the low/middle level High in the Atlantic east/southeast of Florida to shift northward.  This will deepen the east and mostly southeast wind flow over the next couple of days.

Sunday may still be a transitional day with a general southerly steering flow/possibly becoming more southeast late.  This will favor most of the shower and thundershower activity over the interior and northern portions.

As the southeast and east wind flow deepens, it will favor afternoon and evening showers and thundershowers over the interior and western areas during the afternoon and evening hours.  The eastern areas will be favored with night and morning showers and thundershowers.  Without any features moving through the area, the interior and western areas will have the most coverage of the showers and thundershowers as daytime heating and sea breeze interaction will promote the most activity.

 

For Sunday, it will partly sunny to partly cloudy.  There will be scattered showers and thundershowers.  Highs will be in the middle 80’s to low 90’s. Some areas in the interior may reach middle 90’s. Lows Sunday night will be middle to upper 70’s.

Winds will be south southeast to southeast becoming southeast to east southeast Sunday night at 5 – 15 mph.  Seas will be around 2 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop.

For Monday (Labor Day), it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy.  There will be scattered showers and thundershowers.  Highs will be in the upper 80’s to low 90’s.  Some areas in the interior may reach middle 90’s.  Lows Monday night will be in middle 70’s to near 80.

Winds will be south southeast to east southeast at 5 – 10 mph.  Seas will be around 2 feet or less.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop.

For Tuesday, it will be sunny to partly sunny.  There will be widely scattered to scattered showers and thundershowers.  Highs will be in the middle 80’s to low 90’s.  Some areas in the interior may reach middle 90’s.  Lows Tuesday night will be in the middle 70’s to low 80’s.

Winds will be southeast to east southeast at 5 – 10 mph.  Seas will be less than 2 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop.

 

A tropical wave (currently located in the Atlantic approaching the Lesser Antilles) may approach the area toward the end of the week/weekend.  Click here to visit the Hurricane and Tropical Weather page for additional information on the tropics.  This may enhance shower and thundershower coverage during that time.

 

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

Tropical Weather Analysis 8-31-13

Southeast Florida Weather

 

In today’s tropical weather analysis, the NHC (National Hurricane Center) is monitoring three tropical waves.

The first tropical wave is located over the western Caribbean south of Cuba extending southward to near Panama.  It is moving west at 20 – 25 knots.  There is cloudiness and clusters of thunderstorms south of Cuba and west of Jamaica with probably most of it is due to diffluent flow aloft from an upper level Low to the north.

The second tropical wave with a weak surface Low associated with it is located a few hundred miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles.  It is moving west at 10 – 15 knots.   It was designated as invest 97L today.  An invest is just a disturbance that is monitored for potential development. It does not necessarily mean it will become a tropical cyclone. It allows for additional data to be gathered and other forecast models to be run on it.

It is still dealing with SAL (Saharan Air Layer), but appears to have lessened.  SAL hinders convection as the environment is dry and stable.  Cloudiness and showers have increased over the area, but it remains not well organized as the activity is well removed from the area of low level rotation.

 

Zoomed-In Animated Satellite Imagery (Afternoon)

Zoomed-In Animated Satellite Imagery (Afternoon)

 

Upper level winds from an upper level Low which is probably helping with developing convection (diffluent flow) is also causing the wind shear.

 

Zoomed-In Animated Water Vapor Imagery

Zoomed-In Animated Water Vapor Imagery

 

This is hindering the wave from consolidating the convection around the low level area of rotation and impeding additional development.  The NHC is giving the system a low (10%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours and low (20%) chance within the next five days. The wave will be moving toward warmer SST (Sea Surface Temperatures) which may aid/sustain convection.  Environmental conditions may improve as it progresses through the Caribbean, especially in the western Caribbean.

 

Sea Surface Temperatures

Sea Surface Temperatures

Wind Shear

Wind Shear



Forecast model tracks has the system moving in a general west to northwest motion over the next several days.

 

Early-cycle Track Guidance 8-31-13 (8:00 pm)

Early-cycle Track Guidance 8-31-13 (8:00 pm)

 

It appears that the tracks are depended upon the depth (strength) of the system.  A shallower system will move with the general low level easterly flow while a deeper system will be a northerly bias.

The third tropical wave is in the far eastern Atlantic between the west coast of Africa and the Cape Verde islands.  It is moving west northwest at around 5 knots and forecast models have it moving in a generally northwest motion.  The environment has become less favorable for development.  850 mb vorticity has decreased over the area and it is moving into an area of increasing wind shear and lower SST’s.  There is also SAL (Saharan Air Layer) to the north and west of the area.  These factors are not conducive for further development.  The NHC is giving the system a low (20%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours and five days.

 

NHC Graphical Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook (8:00 pm)

NHC Graphical Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook (8:00 pm)

 

Below is the CIMSS Meteosat Saharan Air Layer Tracking Product illustrating the level of dry air over the tropical Atlantic.

 

Saharan Air Layer (5:00 pm)

Saharan Air Layer (5:00 pm)

 

Below is the surface analysis of the tropical Atlantic for this afternoon.

 

Tropical Atlantic Surface Analysis (2:00 pm)

Tropical Atlantic Surface Analysis (2:00 pm)

 

Below is the satellite image of the tropical Atlantic for this afternoon.

 

Satellite Image (2:15 pm)

Satellite Image (2:15 pm)

 

 

Click here for the latest information from the National Hurricane Center.

 

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

Southeast Florida Afternoon Short Term Weather Outlook 8-31-13

Southeast Florida Weather

 

As indicated from this morning’s update, conditions were more favorable for showers and thunderstorm development especially in the interior portions.  Currently, strong thunderstorms are occurring from central Miami-Dade County northward into central Broward County.

 

Radar Image (3:14 pm)

Radar Image (3:14 pm)

 

Excessive lightning and strong gusty winds have been occurring with this activity. Hail is possible.  Several Special Weather Statements have already been issued for this afternoon.   Also, heavy rains have occurred with some of the thunderstorms.  A Flood Advisory has been issued for central Miami-Dade County until 5:30 pm.   Be on alert.  Drive with caution.  Power has gone out several times over the past hour.

The activity has been moving northward.  Short term models have this activity spreading northward into Palm Beach County and further to the interior.

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