Southeast Florida Weather 6-30-13

Southeast Florida Weather

 

Analysis:

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was generally partly cloudy.  There were widely scattered showers with most of the activity occurring over southern Miami-Dade County early.  Lows were generally in the middle to upper 70’s. Winds were light mostly south and southwest.

During the day, it was generally partly sunny to partly cloudy.  Showers surrounded the coastal waters of south Florida early and moved ashore during the morning.  Other showers and thunderstorms were formed over the interior portions of south Florida later in the morning.  The activity was moving rather quickly to the north and north northeast.  Some of the activity became strong and Special Weather Statements were issued for portions of Broward and Palm Beach County.

As the afternoon progressed, additional showers and thundershowers developed. Most of the activity was in the interior and northern sections as the steering flow was more out of the south rather than southwest. The showers and thundershowers were most numerous over Broward and Palm Beach Counties. Again, some of the storms became active requiring the issuance of Special Weather Statements and Marine Warnings.

Highs were mostly in the upper 80’s to low 90’s.  Winds were south and southwest at 10 – 20 mph with higher gusts.

The upper level trough that has been amplifying over the eastern U.S. has already begun retrograding westward as a strong upper level High builds over the Atlantic.

 

500 mb Analysis 6-30-13 (2:00 PM)

500 mb Analysis 6-30-13 (2:00 PM)

 

This kept the winds aloft more out of the south and southwest rather than the west and southwest. The maps below illustrate this (source:  Melbourne NWS).

 

Southeast Florida Weather,

Mid-Level Wind Flow & Moisture 6-30-13 (5:45 pm)

Southeast Florida Weather, Surface Winds

10 Meter Winds and Pressures 6-30-13 (5:45 pm)

 

 



This kept most of the activity in the interior and northern sections.

 

There was a front over the southeast U.S.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, Surface Analysis

US Surface Analysis 6-30-13 (2:00 pm)

 

Showers and thundershowers moving off the north coast of Cuba tonight may impact the area overnight. Also, moisture streaming north from a tropical wave in the western Caribbean may may enhance activity.  Click here to visit the Hurricane and Tropical Weather page for additional information regarding the tropics.

 

Forecast:

For tonight, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy.   There will be good chance of showers and thundershowers.  It will be somewhat breezy at times.  Lows will be in the middle 70’s to around 80.

Winds will be south and south southeast at 10 – 20 mph.  Seas will be 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet except for Palm Beach County where seas will be 2 – 3 feet along the coast to 3 – 5 feet occasionally up to 6 feet in the Gulf Stream.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop.  Small craft should exercise caution.

The upper level High will continue to build and expand.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS 500 mb Forecast Model 6-30-13(18z) at 036 Hours

 

This will further force the upper level trough to retrograde westward. Winds aloft will veer more to the south and southeast.

As the upper level trough retrogrades, the front over the southeast U.S. will back up and eventually dissipate as the Atlantic surface High rebuilds.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 6-30-13(18z) at 048 Hours

 

Winds will become more east and southeast. This change in wind flow regime will change the pattern for shower and thundershower activity.  Afternoon and evening showers and thundershowers will be most numerous over the inland and west portion of south Florida.  The east sections will see showers and few thundershowers that mostly develop over the Atlantic during night and morning hours stream in.

As the surface High builds, the pressure gradient over the area will tighten.  Winds will increase accordingly as will seas.  Small craft exercise caution may be required for portions of the area.

With an increasing onshore wind, the threat of risk currents will also increase. The rip current risk level will probably rise to at least moderate level.  An update via twitter will be sent in the morning with the rip current risk level.

There is a tropical wave near the Lesser Antilles in the eastern Caribbean.  This wave may enhance shower and thundershower activity for Tuesday into Wednesday.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 6-30-13(18z) at 069 Hours

 

For Monday, it will partly cloudy to cloudy.  There will be good chance of showers and thundershowers.  Highs will be in the upper 80’s to low 90’s. It will be breezy at times.  Lows Monday night will be in the middle 70’s to around 80.

Winds will be south southeast at 10 – 20 mph, becoming more southeast Monday night for Miami-Dade and Broward Counties.  In Palm Beach County, seas will be 3 – 5 feet occasionally up to 6 feet diminishing to 2 – 3 feet Monday night.  For Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, seas will be 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet diminishing to 2 – 3 feet Monday night.

As winds become more onshore, the risk of rip currents will increase.  An update via twitter will be sent in the morning as necessary for the rip current risk level.

For Tuesday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy.  There will be good chance of showers and thundershowers.  Highs will be in the upper 80’s to low 90’s.  Lows Tuesday night will be in middle 70’s to around 80.

Winds will be southeast at 10 – 15 mph becoming 10 – 20 mph Tuesday night and more east southeast for Miami-Dade and Broward Counties.  Seas will be 2 – 3 feet except 2 – 4 feet occasionally 5 feet in Palm Beach County Tuesday night.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop to choppy in exposed areas in Palm Beach County.

With onshore winds, there will be risk of rip currents.  An update via twitter will be sent in the morning with the rip current risk level.

For Wednesday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy.  There will be chance of showers and thundershowers. It will be breezy at times especially near the coast.  Highs will be in the middle 80’s to low 90’s.  Some areas in the interior may reach middle 90’s. Lows Wednesday night will be middle 70’s to near 80.

Winds will be southeast and east southeast becoming easterly Wednesday night at 10 – 20 mph.  Seas will be 2 – 5 feet increasing up to 6 feet Wednesday night.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop to choppy in exposed areas. Small craft should exercise caution may be required for portions of the area.

With stronger onshore winds, the risk of rip currents will increase further.  It will probably be at least in the moderate range.  An update via twitter will be sent in the morning with the rip current risk level.

Toward the middle and end of the week, as the upper level High continues to expand and become dominant, upper level heights will be increasing leading to warmer temperatures.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS 500 mb Forecast Model 6-30-13(18z) at 102 Hours

 

It will become typical summertime July weather.

Overall drier air will be moving in which will reduce showers and thundershowers. Also, there is an upper level trough/Low that will be approaching from the east.  Typically, the west side of these Lows have drier air.

The Fourth of July is shaping up to have less shower and thundershower activity.  Most of the afternoon and evening showers and thundershowers will be concentrated over the western portion of south Florida.

Looking further out, within the easterly wind flow, there may be weak perturbations that will move through from time to time enhancing shower activity.

 

Stay updated. Visit the website to check for constant updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

Tropical Weather Analysis 6-30-13

Southeast Florida Weather

 

In today’s tropical weather analysis, three tropical waves are being tracked by the NHC (National Hurricane Center).

The first wave is located in the western Caribbean, south of western Cuba.  It is moving westward at around 5 – 10 knots.  Convection is around Cuba and portions of the western Caribbean and the Florida Straits.  Activity has decreased since yesterday.  Also vorticity at the 850 mb level is not as strong as yesterday.

The second wave is located in the eastern Caribbean from north of Puerto Rico southward to the north coast of South America.  The wave is moving west at around 10 knots.  Scattered convection and cloudiness extend along the eastern Caribbean and Lesser Antilles.  Vorticity has weakened considerably since yesterday and is most focused on the north coast of South America.  It may not even be related to the tropical wave.

On the two waves above, the NHC is no longer including them in the TWO (Tropical Weather Outlook) as they no currently no longer pose a threat for further development.  Upper level winds are too hostile (due to wind shear) for development.

The third tropical wave is approaching the central Atlantic and is located approximately half way between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.  The wave is moving westward at 15 knots.  Convection and cloudiness is rather limited with most of the activity in the southern portion of the wave near the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone).  850 mb vorticity has increased since yesterday.

 

Wind shear over the MDR (Main Development Region) has decreased somewhat over portions of the area. However, it generally remains hostile.

 

Tropical Weather, Wind Shear

Wind Shear Tendency 6-30-13 (8:00 pm)

 

Below is the surface analysis of the tropical Atlantic for this afternoon.

 

Tropical Weather, Surface Analysis

Tropical Atlantic Surface Analysis 6-30-13 (2:00 pm)

 

Below is the satellite image of the tropical Atlantic for this afternoon.

 

Tropical Weather, Satellite Image

Tropical Atlantic Satellite Image 6-30-13 (2:15 pm)

 

Tropical Weather Analysis 6-29-13

Southeast Florida Weather

In today’s tropical weather analysis, The NHC (National Hurricane Center) is monitoring three tropical waves.

The first wave is located in the western Caribbean, south of Cuba.  The wave is moving west at around 5 knots.  There has been an increase in convection over the area today.  850 mb vorticity has increased markedly today in comparison to yesterday.

The second wave is located in the eastern Caribbean.  There are couple areas of 850 mb vorticity with this wave with the strongest one in the southern Caribbean near the north coast of South America where a weak surface low has developed.  Below is the satellite animation of the area.  Note the area where what appears to be a circulation.  The circulation feature is moving ahead of the cloud mass.  This is due to the upper level wind shear which is blowing convection away.  This is hindering the development of the system.

 

East Caribbean Tropical Wave 6-29-13

East Caribbean Tropical Wave 6-29-13

 

The NHC has both of  tropical waves indicated above to have a low (near 0%) chance of developing into tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.

 

Tropical Weather, Graphical

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook 6-29-13 (8:00 pm)

 

The third tropical wave is in the far eastern Atlantic near the west coast of Africa. It is moving westward at 10 – 15 knots.  There is limited convection in association with it and is primarily along the ITCZ (Intertropical convergence Zone).

Below is the surface analysis of the tropical Atlantic for this afternoon.

 

Tropical Weather, Surface Analysis

Tropical Atlantic Surface Analysis 6-29-13 (2:00 pm)

 

Below is the satellite image of the tropical Atlantic for this afternoon.

 

Tropical Weather, Satellite Image

Tropical Atlantic Satellite Image 6-29-13 (2:45 pm)

 

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