Southeast Florida Weather 5-31-13

Southeast Florida Weather

 

Analysis:

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was partly cloudy to cloudy. Scattered showers continued to move ashore from the Atlantic. Lows were generally around 70 to middle 70’s. Winds were easterly averaging 10 – 20 mph with higher gusts especially along the coast.

During the day, it was partly cloudy becoming rather cloudy late in the day. There were scattered showers.  The activity was more focused over the western portion of the area and southwest Florida. Highs were low to middle 80’s near the coast to middle to upper 80’s in the interior. Winds were easterly occasionally southeasterly at 10 – 20 mph with higher gusts.

 

Forecast:

For tonight, it will be partly cloudy. It will be somewhat breezy along the coast. There will be scattered showers and possibly a few thundershowers. Lows will be low 70’s to upper 70’s.

Winds will be easterly at 10 – 20 mph. Seas will be 2 – 5 feet and occasionally up to 6 feet at Palm Beach County. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have moderate chop to choppy in exposed areas. Small craft should exercise caution is in effect.

For Saturday, it will be variably cloudy. Showers are likely with possibly few thundershowers. Highs will be low to middle 80’s near the coast to middle to upper 80’s in the interior. Lows Saturday night will be low 70’s to upper 70’s.

Winds will be east southeast to southeast at 10 – 15 mph. Seas will be 2 – 3 feet except 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet for Palm Beach County during the day. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light to moderate chop.

With onshore winds, the risk of rip currents continues. An update via twitter will be sent in the morning with the risk level.

For Sunday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy. There will be a good chance of showers and possibly few thundershowers. Highs will be low to middle 80’s long the coast to middle 80’s to near 90 in the interior. Lows Sunday night will be around 70 to low 70’s well Inland to middle to upper 70’s near the coast.

Winds will be east southeast and southeast to south southeast at 10 – 15 mph. Seas will be around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light to moderate chop.

With an onshore wind, the threat for rip currents continues. An update via twitter will be sent via twitter in the morning with the risk level.

For Monday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy. Showers and thundershowers will be likely. Highs will be around middle 80’s near the coast to upper 80’s to around 90 in the interior. Lows Monday night will be around 70 to low 70’s well Inland to low to middle 70’s near the coast.

Winds will be variable to southerly at 5 – 10 mph. Seas will be around 2 feet or less. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will be mostly smooth.

There may be a temporary lull in shower activity. However, consensus is building for some sort development to occur in the area from the northwest Caribbean to the Yucatan Peninsula to the southern Gulf of Mexico. Below is the ECMWF and GFS forecast models depiction based on the 12z run for today for day 6 – Thursday (source: raleighwx.americanwx.com).

 

Southeast Florida Weather, Euro Model

ECMWF 500 mb/SLP Forecast Model 5-31-13(12z) at 144 Hours

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS 500 mb/SLP Forecast Model 5-31-13(12z) at 144 Hours



The placement and intensity of the feature is somewhat similar for day 6.

The feature is expected to move on a general north and northeast direction. As expected, they are timing, track and intensity differences going out further in time.

Regardless, with a system like this, it will probably be lopsided. Most of the activity will be to the north and east side of the feature. This will mean that weather will be deteriorating well in advance. Additionally, based on the current track, south Florida will be on the  eastern side and the feature will draw deep tropical moisture northward from the Caribbean. There could be copious amount of rainfall. Below is the GFS depiction on day 4 and 5.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS model

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-31-13(18z) at 096 Hours

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-31-13(18z) at 120 Hours



This is several days away and forecast models are subject to change. The trend has increasingly sided with this scenario/solution.

This will be something to monitor in the coming days.

Currently, there are no significant features in the area of possible development. The remnants of ex-hurricane Barbara that formed in the eastern Pacific and moved Inland over Mexico is partially over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. There has been some flare-up and waning of convection over the western Caribbean for the past couple of days. However there is no organization to it. Most of the convection is due to diffluent flow in the upper levels and has not been sustainable.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, Satellite Image

Satellite Image 5-31-13 (2:15 pm)

 

The hurricane season for the Atlantic basin begins on Saturday, June 1.

 

Visit the website to check for updates via twitter or follow on twitter @Theweathercentr.

 

Southeast Florida Weather 5-30-13

Southeast Florida Weather

Analysis:

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was partly cloudy to cloudy.  There were scattered showers moving in from the Atlantic.  Lows were upper 60’s to low 70’s well Inland to low to middle 70’s near the coast.  Winds were easterly at 15 – 25 mph with higher gusts.

During the day, it was partly cloudy to cloudy.  Scattered showers continued streaming in from the Atlantic. Highs were low to middle 80’s near the coast to middle and upper 80’s in the interior (where there were less shower activity).  South/central Miami-Dade received the bulk of the activity.  A Urban Flood Warning was issued around 6:00 pm for portion of the area.  Winds were east and southeast at 15 – 25 mph with higher gusts especially near the coast.  The Flood Watch that was issued on Wednesday was discontinued as widespread rains were no longer anticipated. Small craft advisory continued for the Atlantic waters.

 

Forecast:

For tonight, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy. There will be good chance of showers and an isolated thundershower. There may be a lull before additional development occurs over the Atlantic and moves ashore. It will continue to be breezy especially along the coast.  Lows will be around 70 to middle 70’s.

Winds will be east southeast at 15 – 25 mph.  Seas will be 5 – 8 feet occasionally up to 9/10 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will be choppy to rough in exposed areas.  Small craft advisory will continue to be in effect through Friday morning.

Most of the cloudiness and shower activity that has been over the area shifted eastward into the Atlantic near the Bahamas as a weak trough developed.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, Satellite Image

Satellite Image 5-30-13 (2:15 pm)

 

Friday looks to be another showery day.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-30-13(18z) at 030 Hours

 

For Friday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy.  Showers will be likely with isolated thundershowers. It will be breezy especially in the eastern areas. Highs will be low to middle 80’s near the coast to middle 80’s to near 90 in the interior. Lows Friday night will be 70 to low 70’s well Inland to middle to upper 70’s near the coast.

Winds for Palm Beach County will be easterly at 15 – 20 mph with seas 4 – 6 feet occasionally up to 8 feet diminishing to 3 – 5 feet occasionally 6 feet Friday night.  For Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, winds will be easterly at 10 – 20 mph with seas 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will be choppy in exposed areas diminishing to moderate chop at Biscayne Bay Friday night.  A small craft exercise caution or small craft advisory may be required for portions of the Atlantic waters.

With onshore winds continuing, the threat of rip currents will also continue.  An update via twitter will be sent in the morning.

The rather strong surface High that has been creating the tight pressure gradient (and strong winds) will be weakening and moving eastward as a front advances into the southeast U.S.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, WPC Forecast

WPC Forecast 6-2-13 (8:00 am)

 

The pressure gradient will then subside causing winds to diminish and veer more southeasterly/southerly for a time before backing up to a easterly direction again.

For Saturday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy.  There will be a good chance of showers and a few thundershowers.  Highs will be around low to middle 80’s near the coast to upper 80’s to near 90 in the interior.  Lows Friday night will be 70 to middle 70’s Inland to middle to upper 70’s near the coast.

Winds will be east and east southeast at 10 – 15 mph.  Seas will be 2 – 3 feet except 2 – 4 feet occasionally 5 feet at Palm Beach County during the day.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light to moderate chop.

With an onshore wind, the threat of rip currents will continue.  An update via twitter will be sent in the morning with the threat level.

For Sunday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy with good chance of showers and thundershowers.  Highs will be middle to upper 80’s near the coast to upper 80’s to low 90’s in the interior.  Lows Sunday night will be around 70 to low 70’s Inland to middle to upper 70’s near the Coast.

Winds will be southeasterly at 5 – 15 mph.  Seas will be around 2 feet to occasionally 3 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop.

Although onshore winds will be lighter, there may still be risk of rip currents.  An update via twitter will be sent in the morning.

Activity looks to be somewhat more scattered into the weekend/early next week before possibly becoming more widespread by the middle/end of next week.

This leads us to what has been discussed for the last several days regarding possible development within the area from northwest Caribbean to the Yucatan Peninsula to the Bay of Campeche (southwest Gulf of Mexico).

On Day 7 (12z run), both ECMWF and GFS have similar placement of broad surface Low near the Yucatan Peninsula (source: raleighwx.americanwx.com).

 

Southeast Florida Weather, Euro Model

ECM 500 mb/SLP Forecast Model 5-30-13(12z) at 168 Hours

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS 500 mb/SLP Forecast Model 5-30-13(12z) at 168 Hours



Both models take the feature to the north/northeast at different intensities.  The ECM model shows a somewhat stronger system which normally the GFS is more aggressive.

Of note, the 18z run of the GFS brings the system somewhat closer to western Florida.  This is several days away, and the track and intensity will vary from run to run and day to day.

Typically in weaker tropical systems, the activity tends to be lopsided.  Most of the activity will be on the north and east side and can have copious amount of rains.  If the system remains to the west, this will also draw deep tropical moisture northward (as winds flow counter-clockwise) over Florida.

 

Visit website to check for updates via twitter.

Southeast Florida Weather 5-29-13

Southeast Florida Weather

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was cloudy. Showers and a few thundershowers developed and move in during the late night/early morning. Lows were mainly from upper 60’s to middle 70’s. Winds were out of the east around 10 – 20 mph with occasionally higher gusts.

During the day, cloudiness continued. Showers and few thundershowers increased in intensity and areal coverage during the morning. Portions of Palm Beach County received very heavy rains necessitating issuance of Flood Warning.

Shower activity decreased in most areas early afternoon, but then was on the increase again by late afternoon. An Urban Flood Warning was issued for portion of Miami-Dade County. A Flood Watch was issued for southeast Florida and to continue into Friday morning. Additionally a weather alert was issued for portions of Broward and Miami-Dade County late in the afternoon for gusty winds of 45 – 55 mph. A Special Marine Warning was issued for Broward and northeast Miami-Dade coast due to strong winds.

Highs were kept cooler with the cloudiness and rains. Highs were generally in the upper 70’s to middle 80’s. Winds were easterly at 15 – 20 mph with higher gusts. Winds became 20 – 30 mph during the late afternoon over eastern sections. A small craft exercise caution was in effect for the coastal waters of southeast Florida which was later upgraded to small craft advisory.

For tonight, it will be mostly cloudy. Showers and possibly a few thundershowers are likely. There may be a lull early. It will be breezy to windy at the coast (especially for Miami-Dade and Broward Counties). Lows will be around 70 to middle 70’s.

Winds for Miami-Dade and Broward will be easterly at 25 – 30 mph decreasing to 15 – 20 mph after midnight. For Palm Beach County winds will 15 – 25 mph out of the east. Seas will be 4 – 6 feet occasionally up to 8 feet and 5 – 7 feet occasionally up to 9 feet in the Gulf Stream for Miami-Dade and Broward Counties. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will be rough to very rough in exposed areas. Small craft advisory will be in effect through Thursday evening.

An area of vorticity will be developing near the area/Florida Straits/western Bahamas

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS 850 mb Vorticity Forecast Model 5-29-13(18z) at 021 Hours

 

Also a surface reflection of it will forming within the area of vorticity as a kink in the wind field/inverted surface trough.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 5-29-13(18z) at 021 Hours

 

Most of the weather associated with these features look to be on the north and east side of the axis. The placement of the features will have bearing on how much rain will take place.

For Thursday, it will be cloudy. Showers and possibly a few thundershowers will be likely. Highs will be around 80 to middle 80’s. Lows Thursday night will be around 70 to middle 70’s.

For Miami-Dade and Broward County, winds will be easterly at 20 – 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. On Thursday night, winds will become east northeast at 20 – 25 mph and slightly higher over the Gulf Stream. Seas will be 6 – 8 feet occasionally up to 10 feet. For Palm Beach County, winds will be easterly at 15 – 25 mph becoming east northeast Thursday night. Winds in the Gulf Stream will be 25 – 30 mph out of the east. Seas will be 7 – 9 feet occasionally up to 11 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will be rough to very rough in exposed areas. Small craft advisory will be in effect through the evening.

As rather strong onshore winds continue, there will be high risk of rip currents.

For Friday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy. There will be good chance to likely showers and few thundershowers. They will be most numerous in the southern areas. Highs will be low to middle 80’s near the coast to middle and upper 80’s in the interior (depending on cloudiness and showers). Lows Friday night will be low 70’s to upper 70’s.

Winds for Palm Beach will be east northeast 15 – 25 mph becoming east southeast 15 – 20 mph Friday night, and then more southeast at 10 – 15 mph. Seas will be 5 – 7 feet occasionally up to 9 feet decreasing to 4 – 6 feet occasionally 8 feet Friday night and diminishing further to 2 – 4 feet occasionally 5 feet late. Winds for Miami-Dade and Broward Counties will be south southeast 10 – 15 mph. Seas will be 3 – 5 feet occasionally up to 6 feet diminishing 2 – 3 feet Friday night.

With an onshore wind, the risk of rip currents will continue. An update via twitter will be sent in the morning with the risk level.

For Saturday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy. There will be good chance of showers and possibly a few thundershowers. Highs will be middle 80’s to near 90 near the coast to upper 80’s to low 90’s in the interior. Lows Saturday night will be 70 to middle 70’s well Inland to low middle to upper 70’s near the Coast.

Winds will be east southeast and southeast at 10 – 20 mph. Seas will be 2 – 3 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop.

With an onshore wind flow, there will be risk of rip currents. An update via twitter will be sent in the morning with the risk level.

This is a rather complicated forecast for the the week as it will depend on the eventual evolution of the above mentioned features and anything else that may occur in the Caribbean. For now, will just paint a broad stroke and indicated partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with scattered showers and thundershowers.  Southeast Florida may end up with more showers or less showers. It will probably just fluctuate day to day depending on moisture and whatever triggering features (if any) are around either at the surface or upper levels.

In reference to the Caribbean and possible development, models are still having difficulty in coming to a consensus solution. They agree that something may develop anywhere from western Caribbean to Yucatan Peninsula to southwest Gulf of Mexico. That is where the agreement ends. The timeframe, placement, track and intensity differ depending on what model you look at. Models have shifted somewhat closer to Yucatan Peninsula where few days ago it was in the western Caribbean.

To further complicate matters, the remnants of tropical storm Barbara in the eastern Pacific may get into the Gulf of Mexico in the next day or two. There is also another tropical disturbance in the eastern Pacific moving northeast toward Mexico’s coast.  May just end up with multiple lows/disturbances coming out of the area.   We will need to see how this all interacts and what will be the eventual evolution.

 

Visit website to check for updates via twitter.

 

 Page 1 of 12  1  2  3  4  5 » ...  Last »