For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was partly cloudy to cloudy. Scattered showers continued to move ashore from the Atlantic. Lows were generally around 70 to middle 70’s. Winds were easterly averaging 10 – 20 mph with higher gusts especially along the coast.
During the day, it was partly cloudy becoming rather cloudy late in the day. There were scattered showers. The activity was more focused over the western portion of the area and southwest Florida. Highs were low to middle 80’s near the coast to middle to upper 80’s in the interior. Winds were easterly occasionally southeasterly at 10 – 20 mph with higher gusts.
For tonight, it will be partly cloudy. It will be somewhat breezy along the coast. There will be scattered showers and possibly a few thundershowers. Lows will be low 70’s to upper 70’s.
Winds will be easterly at 10 – 20 mph. Seas will be 2 – 5 feet and occasionally up to 6 feet at Palm Beach County. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have moderate chop to choppy in exposed areas. Small craft should exercise caution is in effect.
For Saturday, it will be variably cloudy. Showers are likely with possibly few thundershowers. Highs will be low to middle 80’s near the coast to middle to upper 80’s in the interior. Lows Saturday night will be low 70’s to upper 70’s.
Winds will be east southeast to southeast at 10 – 15 mph. Seas will be 2 – 3 feet except 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet for Palm Beach County during the day. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light to moderate chop.
With onshore winds, the risk of rip currents continues. An update via twitter will be sent in the morning with the risk level.
For Sunday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy. There will be a good chance of showers and possibly few thundershowers. Highs will be low to middle 80’s long the coast to middle 80’s to near 90 in the interior. Lows Sunday night will be around 70 to low 70’s well Inland to middle to upper 70’s near the coast.
Winds will be east southeast and southeast to south southeast at 10 – 15 mph. Seas will be around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light to moderate chop.
With an onshore wind, the threat for rip currents continues. An update via twitter will be sent via twitter in the morning with the risk level.
For Monday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy. Showers and thundershowers will be likely. Highs will be around middle 80’s near the coast to upper 80’s to around 90 in the interior. Lows Monday night will be around 70 to low 70’s well Inland to low to middle 70’s near the coast.
Winds will be variable to southerly at 5 – 10 mph. Seas will be around 2 feet or less. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will be mostly smooth.
There may be a temporary lull in shower activity. However, consensus is building for some sort development to occur in the area from the northwest Caribbean to the Yucatan Peninsula to the southern Gulf of Mexico. Below is the ECMWF and GFS forecast models depiction based on the 12z run for today for day 6 – Thursday (source: raleighwx.americanwx.com).
The placement and intensity of the feature is somewhat similar for day 6.
The feature is expected to move on a general north and northeast direction. As expected, they are timing, track and intensity differences going out further in time.
Regardless, with a system like this, it will probably be lopsided. Most of the activity will be to the north and east side of the feature. This will mean that weather will be deteriorating well in advance. Additionally, based on the current track, south Florida will be on the eastern side and the feature will draw deep tropical moisture northward from the Caribbean. There could be copious amount of rainfall. Below is the GFS depiction on day 4 and 5.
This is several days away and forecast models are subject to change. The trend has increasingly sided with this scenario/solution.
This will be something to monitor in the coming days.
Currently, there are no significant features in the area of possible development. The remnants of ex-hurricane Barbara that formed in the eastern Pacific and moved Inland over Mexico is partially over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. There has been some flare-up and waning of convection over the western Caribbean for the past couple of days. However there is no organization to it. Most of the convection is due to diffluent flow in the upper levels and has not been sustainable.
The hurricane season for the Atlantic basin begins on Saturday, June 1.
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