For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was clear the partly cloudy. The showers and thundershowers that had moved off the north coast of Cuba yesterday evening weakened with time and had dissipated overnight. An area of showers and thundershowers formed offshore of Palm Beach County. This activity moved generally northeastward away from the coast. Few of the showers impacted coastal sections.
Lows were mostly in the low to middle 70’s. Some of the well inland areas dropped into the middle to upper 60’s. Winds were light southeasterly to south with periods of calm.
During the day, it was partly cloudy with increasing cloudiness later. A few showers impacted Palm Beach County during the morning. There was a cluster of showers and thundershowers over southwest Florida moving north and northeast.
By early afternoon, showers and thundershowers developed over the interior portions and moved to the northeast/east. Several weather statements/warnings were issued for strong thunderstorms and flooding. A waterspout was also observed off of Palm Beach County coast.
Convection diminished fairly quickly after sunset as the heating of the day was lost.
Highs were mostly low to middle 80’s with some upper 80’s before the rains came. Winds outside of rain areas were light south and southeasterly to variable at times.
For tonight, it will be partly cloudy with chance of showers/thundershowers mostly early. Lows will be middle 60’s to upper 60’s well Inland to 70 to around middle 70’s near the coast.
There is a strong area of convection in the central Gulf of Mexico.
This may affect the area late tonight/early Wednesday morning if it holds together and continues to move eastward.
Winds will be Winds will be southeast at 5 – 10 mph. Seas will be around 2 feet except for Palm Beach County where it will be 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a smooth to light chop.
For Wednesday, it will be variably cloudy with showers and thundershowers likely by afternoon. There will be a chance of some strong thunderstorms. Highs will be low to middle 80’s with some upper 80’s in the interior. Lows Wednesday night will be middle 60’s to around 70 well Inland to 70 to middle 70’s near the coast.
Winds will be southeast and east southeast becoming east northeast later in the day at 5 – 10 increasing to 5 – 15 mph. Seas will be 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet in Palm Beach County and 2 to occasionally 3 feet for Miami-Dade and Broward Counties. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop.
For Thursday, it will be variably cloudy with showers and thundershowers likely. There may be some strong thunderstorms. Highs will be low to middle 80’s with some of the interior areas reaching upper 80’s if there is enough cloud breaks. Lows Thursday night will be middle to upper 60’s well Inland to 70 to middle 70’s near the coast.
Winds will be east northeast and east at 5 – 15 mph. For Palm Beach, seas will be 3 – 5 feet building to 4 – 6 feet occasionally up to 8 feet Thursday night. For Broward and Miami-Dade, seas will be 2 – 3 feet building to 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet Thursday night. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light to moderate chop.
With an onshore wind and increasing seas, the threat of rip currents will rise. An update with the risk level will be issued via twitter in the morning.
For Friday, it will be partly cloudy with chance of showers and thundershowers. Highs will be middle 80’s. Some of the interior areas will climb into upper 80’s to near 90. Lows Friday night will be middle to upper 60’s well Inland to upper 60’s to low 70’s near the coast.
Winds will be east southeast and southeast at 10 – 20 mph. For Palm Beach County, seas will be 4 – 6 feet occasionally up to 8 feet. At Broward and Miami-Dade County, seas will be 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet building to 3 – 5 feet occasionally up to 6 feet Friday night. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop.
As winds strengthen and seas build, the risk of rip currents will rise. An update will be sent via twitter in the morning with the risk level.
As it has been mentioned over the past several days, showers and thundershowers will be a continuing theme for at least into the end of the week and probably beginning of the weekend if the GFS model verifies.
This is supposed to be the dry season. The rainy season is right around the corner as it normally begins in May.
A weak upper level Low in the vicinity of the northern Gulf States. Below is the water vapor image depicting the upper level Low. The water vapor image shows moisture in the upper levels. The milky/blue/red areas are indicative of moisture level (less to more respectively) and the brown areas is dry air.
It is forecast to move into the northeast Gulf of Mexico before it will be absorbed by a stronger upper level Low in the central U.S. This will continue to allow warm, moist air to flow northward from the Caribbean. Eventually, the upper level Low will move out and an upper level High will build in. The forecast models do not agree on the timing of this. The GFS takes the Low east/southeast before turning northeastward while the ECMWF has it moving northeastward sooner. Stay tuned.
The forecast models are more agreeable today surface wise at least through the end of the week through around early weekend. The surface Low (albeit weak) that has been mentioned previous posts are very close in proximity. Below is the GFS and ECMWF models (source: raleighwx.americanwx.com)..
After that, the models differ on the handling of the Low. ECMWF has the low going out to sea (Bahamas) while GFS hangs it around and eventually has it turning northeast. If the ECMWF model is validated, conditions would improve quicker. However, it would be in a breezy period with some showers blowing in from the Atlantic.
The WPC (Weather Prediction Center) keeps the surface Low around Florida for about three days.
Below is the WPC 5-day rainfall forecast.
Depending on which model wins out will determine wind direction/speed and when rain abates as these features finally move away. As indicated above, the WPC is relying their forecast more on the ECMWF solution. Hopefully, a better consensus will evolve over the next day or so.