Southeast Florida Weather 4-30-13

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was clear the partly cloudy. The showers and thundershowers that had moved off the north coast of Cuba yesterday evening weakened with time and had dissipated overnight. An area of showers and thundershowers formed offshore of Palm Beach County. This activity moved generally northeastward away from the coast. Few of the showers impacted coastal sections.

Lows were mostly in the low to middle 70’s. Some of the well inland areas dropped into the middle to upper 60’s. Winds were light southeasterly to south with periods of calm.

During the day, it was partly cloudy with increasing cloudiness later. A few showers impacted Palm Beach County during the morning. There was a cluster of showers and thundershowers over southwest Florida moving north and northeast.

By early afternoon, showers and thundershowers developed over the interior portions and moved to the northeast/east. Several weather statements/warnings were issued for strong thunderstorms and flooding. A waterspout was also observed off of Palm Beach County coast.

Convection diminished fairly quickly after sunset as the heating of the day was lost.

Highs were mostly low to middle 80’s with some upper 80’s before the rains came. Winds outside of rain areas were light south and southeasterly to variable at times.

For tonight, it will be partly cloudy with chance of showers/thundershowers mostly early. Lows will be middle 60’s to upper 60’s well Inland to 70 to around middle 70’s near the coast.

There is a strong area of convection in the central Gulf of Mexico.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, Satellite Image

Satellite Image 4-30-13 (5:45 pm)

 

This may affect the area late tonight/early Wednesday morning if it holds together and continues to move eastward.

Winds will be Winds will be southeast at 5 – 10 mph. Seas will be around 2 feet except for Palm Beach County where it will be 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a smooth to light chop.

For Wednesday, it will be variably cloudy with showers and thundershowers likely by afternoon. There will be a chance of some strong thunderstorms. Highs will be low to middle 80’s with some upper 80’s in the interior. Lows Wednesday night will be middle 60’s to around 70 well Inland to 70 to middle 70’s near the coast.

Winds will be southeast and east southeast becoming east northeast later in the day at 5 – 10 increasing to 5 – 15 mph. Seas will be 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet in Palm Beach County and 2 to occasionally 3 feet for Miami-Dade and Broward Counties. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop.

For Thursday, it will be variably cloudy with showers and thundershowers likely. There may be some strong thunderstorms. Highs will be low to middle 80’s with some of the interior areas reaching upper 80’s if there is enough cloud breaks. Lows Thursday night will be middle to upper 60’s well Inland to 70 to middle 70’s near the coast.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-30-13(18z) at 051 Hours

 

Winds will be east northeast and east at 5 – 15 mph. For Palm Beach, seas will be 3 – 5 feet building to 4 – 6 feet occasionally up to 8 feet Thursday night. For Broward and Miami-Dade, seas will be 2 – 3 feet building to 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet Thursday night. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light to moderate chop.

With an onshore wind and increasing seas, the threat of rip currents will rise. An update with the risk level will be issued via twitter in the morning.

For Friday, it will be partly cloudy with chance of showers and thundershowers. Highs will be middle 80’s. Some of the interior areas will climb into upper 80’s to near 90. Lows Friday night will be middle to upper 60’s well Inland to upper 60’s to low 70’s near the coast.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-30-13(18z) at 075 Hours

 

Winds will be east southeast and southeast at 10 – 20 mph. For Palm Beach County, seas will be 4 – 6 feet occasionally up to 8 feet. At Broward and Miami-Dade County, seas will be 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet building to 3 – 5 feet occasionally up to 6 feet Friday night. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop.

As winds strengthen and seas build, the risk of rip currents will rise. An update will be sent via twitter in the morning with the risk level.

As it has been mentioned over the past several days, showers and thundershowers will be a continuing theme for at least into the end of the week and probably beginning of the weekend if the GFS model verifies.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 4-30-13(18z) at 099 Hours

 

This is supposed to be the dry season. The rainy season is right around the corner as it normally begins in May.

A weak upper level Low in the vicinity of the northern Gulf States.  Below is the water vapor image depicting the upper level Low. The water vapor image shows moisture in the upper levels.  The milky/blue/red areas are indicative of moisture level (less to more respectively) and the brown areas is dry air.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, Water Vapor Image

Water Vapor Image 4-30-13 (5:45 pm)

 

It is forecast to move into the northeast Gulf of Mexico before it will be absorbed by a stronger upper level Low in the central U.S. This will continue to allow warm, moist air to flow northward from the Caribbean. Eventually, the upper level Low will move out and an upper level High will build in. The forecast models do not agree on the timing of this. The GFS takes the Low east/southeast before turning northeastward while the ECMWF has it moving northeastward sooner. Stay tuned.

The forecast models are more agreeable today surface wise at least through the end of the week through around early weekend. The surface Low (albeit weak) that has been mentioned previous posts are very close in proximity.  Below is the GFS and ECMWF models (source: raleighwx.americanwx.com)..

 

Southeast Florida Weather, ECMWF Model

ECM 850 mb Temperature/SLP Forecast Model 4-30-13(12z) at 096 Hours

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS 850 mb Temperature/SLP Forecast Model 4-30-13(12z) at 096 Hours



After that, the models differ on the handling of the Low. ECMWF has the low going out to sea (Bahamas) while GFS  hangs it around and eventually has it turning northeast.  If the ECMWF model is validated, conditions would improve quicker.  However, it would be in a breezy period with some showers blowing in from the Atlantic.

The WPC (Weather Prediction Center) keeps the surface Low around Florida for about three days.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, WPC Forecast

WPC Forecast 5-3-13 (8:00 am)

Southeast Florida Weather, WPC Forecast

WPC Forecast 5-4-13 (8:00 am)

Southeast Florida Weather, WPC Forecast

WPC Forecast 5-5-13 (8:00 am)



Below is the WPC 5-day rainfall forecast.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, 5-Day Rainfall

5-Day Rainfall Forecast Issued 4-30-13

 

Depending on which model wins out will determine wind direction/speed and when rain abates as these features finally move away.  As indicated above, the WPC is relying their forecast more on the ECMWF solution.  Hopefully, a better consensus will evolve over the next day or so.

 

Southeast Florida Weather 4-29-13

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was generally partly cloudy to cloudy. It was more humid. Dewpoint temperatures were in the middle to upper 60’s. This compares to upper 50’s and low 60’s a few days ago. There were a few showers mostly at coastal areas. There were more showers concentrated over the Florida Straits. Lows were mostly low to middle 70’s. There were some 60’s well Inland. Winds were easterly and southeasterly at generally at 5 – 15 mph.

A high rip current risk was in effect along the Atlantic coast.

During the day, it was partly cloudy. Dewpoint temperatures continued to rise and were approaching 70 degrees in many areas. It felt more humid. Showers continued to increase in areal coverage and intensity through the day peaking late afternoon. Special weather statements, warnings and marine statements were issued for strong thunderstorms. Highs were in the low to middle 80’s with some upper 80’s in the interior areas. Winds were east and southeast at 10 – 20 mph.

For tonight, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy. Chance of showers and thundershowers will continue into the night. As of this writing, an area of showers and thundershowers has moved off the northern coast of Cuba moving northward.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, Radar

Radar 4-29-13 (8:09 pm)

 

If it is able to hold together, it may affect the area later tonight. Lows will be low to middle 70’s. Some of the well Inland areas will drop into the middle and upper 60’s. Some fog may develop mainly in the interior portions.

Winds will be southeast at 5 – 15 mph. Seas will be 2 – 3 feet except 2 – 4 feet occasionally 5 feet for Palm Beach County. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have light to moderate chop.

For Tuesday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy. There will be good chance of showers and thundershowers. Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s. Some of the interior areas may reach upper 80’s to near 90. Lows Tuesday night will be upper 60’s to middle 70’s. Fog is possible mainly in the interior portions.

Winds will be south southeast and southeast at 5 – 15 mph. Seas will be 2 to occasionally 3 feet except for Palm Beach County where it will be 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop.

With onshore winds, there will be risk of rip currents. An update with risk level will be sent via twitter in the morning.

For Wednesday, it will be partly cloudy with good chance of showers and thundershowers primarily in the afternoon. Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s. If there are enough breaks in the clouds, some of the interior areas may reach upper 80’s to near 90. Lows Wednesday night will be upper 60’s to middle 70’s.

Winds will be southeast becoming east Wednesday night at 5 – 10 mph. Seas will be around 2 feet except 2 – 3 feet increasing to 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet at Palm Beach County. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop.

For Thursday, it will be mostly partly cloudy with good chance of showers and thundershowers. Highs will be in the middle 80’s. Lows Thursday night will be low to middle 60’s Inland to middle 60’s to low 70’s near the coast.

Winds will be east and northeast at 5 – 10 mph. Seas will be 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet at Palm Beach County and 2 to occasionally 3 feet in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will be mostly light chop.

This is going to be a rainy week. Below is the GFS forecast model (map source: raleighwx.americanwx.com) and WPC (Weather Prediction Center) depiction for rainfall totals.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS 5-Day Rainfall Forecast Issued 4-29-13

Southeast Florida Weather, WPC Rainfall

WPC 5-Day Rainfall Forecast Issued 4-29-13



Forecast models are just having a tough time with the evolution of surface features toward the end of this week into the weekend. The models have been showing on and off of a surface Low coming out of the eastern Gulf of Mexico/northwest Caribbean and moving/redeveloping over Florida/adjacent waters.

Below is WPC forecast and it has the surface Low around Florida for three days.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, WPCForecast

WPC Forecast 5-2-13 (8:00 am)

Southeast Florida Weather, WPCForecast

WPC Forecast 5-3-13 (8:00 am)

Southeast Florida Weather, WPC Forecast

WPC Forecast 5-4-13 8:00 am



This will determine our weather for the end of the week/weekend. Additionally, there is a surface High building down from the north that may be able to help clear things out.

The upper level features are better resolved. There is going to be two upper level Lows developing/closing off over the next several days. One over the central U.S. that will move into the southeast U.S. and the other one over the central/western Atlantic. In between these two upper level Lows, an upper level High will be sandwiched.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS 500 mb Forecast Model 4-29-13(18z) at 141 Hours

 

 

An interesting evolution will take place with the upper level Low in the Atlantic. There is a weak upper Level currently in the central Atlantic. An upper level trough will swing by to the north of it. Two pieces of energy breaks off from the upper level trough and is absorbed and invigorates into the current upper level Low.

 

GFS 500 mb Forecast Model 4-29-13(18z) at 048 Hours

GFS 500 mb Forecast Model 4-29-13(18z) at 048 Hours

Southeast Floorida Weather, GFS Model

GFS 500 mb Forecast Model 4-29-13(18z) at 090 Hours



Depending on the eventual placement of these features, it may help to dry the atmosphere out.

Hopefully over the next few days, a better consensus of the surface features among forecast models will become established and the forecast can be fine tuned.

 

 

Southeast Florida Weather 4-28-13

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was generally clear to partly cloudy. A few showers moved ashore early last night mainly over Miami-Dade and Broward Counties. Most of the shower activity shifted southward as the night progressed and was mostly affecting the Keys. Lows were mostly in the low to middle 70’s. Well inland areas had temperatures in the middle to upper 60’s with some isolated areas around 60. Winds were generally easterly at 5 – 15 mph with occasionally higher gusts especially near the coast.

During the day, it was sunny to partly sunny. It was breezy, especially near coastal sections. The winds blew in a few light showers and impacted portions of the area mostly during the morning. Highs were mostly 80 to middle 80’s. Some areas in the interior sections climbed into the upper 80’s. Winds were generally easterly at 10 – 20 mph with higher gusts.

For tonight, it will be partly cloudy. It will be somewhat breezy especially near the coast. There will be a chance of showers more likely late. Lows will be 70 to middle 70’s near the coast to middle 60’s to near 70 well Inland.

A high rip current risk is in effect for tonight through Monday afternoon.

Winds will be east southeast at 10 – 20 mph. Seas will be 3 – 5 feet occasionally up to 6 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have moderate chop to choppy in exposed areas. A small craft should exercise caution is in effect.

As it has been well advertised, the chance of showers and thundershowers will be ramping up for the upcoming week beginning on Monday. Below is the 5 day forecast rainfall for the area during the week.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, Precipitation Forecast

5 Day Precipitation Forecast Issued 4-28-13

 

For Monday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy with a good chance of showers and thundershowers. Highs will be 80 to middle 80’s and depending on cloud cover/rain, the interior areas may reach the upper 80’s. Lows will be upper 60’s to middle 70’s.

The high risk of rip currents will continue into Monday afternoon.

Winds will be east southeast and southeast at 10 – 20 mph. Seas will be 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet except for Palm Beach County where it will be 3 – 5 feet occasionally 6 feet subsiding to 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet Monday night. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop.

For Tuesday, it will be mostly cloudy with showers and thundershowers.  Some of the activity could be strong.  Highs will be 80 to middle 80’s. Depending on cloud cover, some of the interior areas may reach upper 80’s. Lows will be upper 60’s to middle 70’s.

Winds will be south southeast at 10 – 15 mph becoming south southeast and south at 5 – 15 mph Tuesday night. Seas will be 2 to occasionally 3 feet except for Palm Beach County where it will be 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop.

With a continuing onshore wind flow, the risk of rip currents will continue. An update will be sent in the morning via twitter regarding the risk level.

For Wednesday, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy with a good chance of showers and thundershowers. Some of the activity could be strong.  Highs will be 80 to middle 80’s. Lows will be 70 to middle 70’s near the coast to middle 60’s to 70 well Inland.

Winds will be easterly at 5 – 15 mph. Seas will be 2 – 3 feet except for Palm Beach County where it will be 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light to moderate chop.

Due to an onshore wind, there is a risk of rip currents. An update will be sent via twitter in the morning regarding risk level.

There appears to be better agreement regarding synoptic features that will be affecting southeast Florida for most of the week. An upper level trough will close off to an upper level Low over the central U.S. Meanwhile, upper level heights will be erratically decreasing leading to lower upper level temperatures. This will result in a more unstable atmosphere. There will be possibility of strong to possibly some severe thunderstorms. The primary threat will be hail and strong straight line winds. Heavy rain is also a possibility.

Both the GFS and ECMWF forecast model  (12z run) show a surface Low off the southeast Florida coast (rather weak) on day 5 (map source: raleighwx.americanwx.com).

 

Southeast Florida Weather, ECMWF Model

ECM 500 mb/SLP Forecast Model 4-28-13(12z) at 120 Hours

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS 500 mb/SLP Forecast Model 4-28-13(12z) at 120 Hours



The ECMWF model then has the surface Low moving away from Florida. The GFS model keeps the surface Low around for period of time as it reorganizes over Florida and off the east coast before it finally moves away.

Below is the WPC (Weather Prediction Center) depiction of the weather features.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, WPC Forecast

WPC Forecast 5-3-13 (8:00 am)

 

As the low moves away, winds will shift to the northwest and north. This will allow some drier and cooler air to work in for the weekend.

 

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