Southeast Florida Weather 3-31-13

The Weather Center News, Southeast Florida, Weather

Happy Easter!

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was a rather mild to cool night depending on how far inland you were. There was again large variation in temperatures. Well inland areas had lows around 50 to areas near the coast in the upper 60’s. It was clear (inland areas) to partly cloudy (coastal areas) Winds were light east and southeast.

During the day, it was a mostly partly sunny to partly cloudy day. Highs were mostly in the upper 70’s to low 80’s. It was somewhat breezy at times with southeasterly winds of 10 – 20 mph with higher gusts.

There was a large wildfire located in central Collier County. The smoke generated by the fire was visible on radar.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, Radar

Radar Image of Smoke from Fire in Collier County

 

Moisture has been on an increase during the day and will continue to do so through Monday.

Tonight will be partly cloudy with a chance of showers late. Lows will be 60’s in the interior portions to around 70 to low 70’s near the coast.

Winds will be southeasterly at 10 – 20 mph. Seas will be 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light to moderate chop.

On Monday, it will be mostly partly cloudy with a chance of showers/thundershowers.

 

Southeast Florida Weather

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-31-13(18z) at 024 Hours

 

Highs will be in the upper 70’s to middle 80’s. Lows Monday night will be in the 60’s. The chance of showers will diminish during the night as the main moisture area moves offshore into the Atlantic.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-31-13(18z) at 039 Hours

 

A front will sag southward and become increasingly diffuse.

A surface High pressure to the north of the front will “bridge” the front and the winds will become northerly. The front will return northward as a warm front on Wednesday as a surface Low pressure system organizes over the western Gulf of Mexico. This will be our next system to affect the weather.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, HPC Forecast

HPC Forecast 4-3-13 (8:00 am)

 

Winds during the day will be southerly to south southwest at 10 – 15 mph. Seas will be 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet. Monday night, winds will become southwest and west southwest and then northwest at 5 – 15 mph. Seas will be 2 feet occasionally 3 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop.

For Tuesday, it will be mostly partly sunny. There will be a small chance of showers late in the day mostly in the northern portion closer to where the front is at. Highs will be mostly upper 70’s to middle 80’s. Lows Tuesday night will be in the 60’s to around 70 near the Coastal areas.

Winds will be northerly to north northeast at 5 – 15 mph becoming east northeast Tuesday night. Seas will be 2 – 3 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light to moderate chop.

On Wednesday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy. Clouds may increase in the northern portion of the area along with a chance of showers. Highs will be mostly in the low to middle 80’s. Lows Wednesday night will be middle 60’s to low 70’s.

Winds will be east southeast at 5 – 15 mph increasing to 10 – 20 mph Wednesday night. Seas will be 2 – 3 feet building up to 4 feet and occasionally up to 5 feet mainly in the southern portions. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop becoming moderate chop Wednesday night.

As mentioned, the next weather maker for southeast Florida region will be a surface Low pressure that will develop over the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS forecast model for the past couple of days has trended the Low to track further north across north Florida/Florida Panhandle.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-31-13(18z) at 111 Hours

 

This has delayed the onset of the shower activity to about Friday and also the duration of it. With this setup, would not be surprised if some sort of line of showers/thundershowers develops.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-31-13(18z) at 132 Hours

 

As the Low pressure develops and moves toward Florida, winds over the area will be increasing toward the end of the week. Once the surface Low pressure moves into the southeast U.S., it will drag a cold front behind it. The front will approach the area on Saturday.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, HPC Forecast

HPC Forecast 4-6-13 (8:00 am)

 

 

It will turn a little cooler with the frontal passage.

 

 

Southeast Florida Weather 3-30-13

The Weather Center News, Southeast Florida, Weather

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was a rather cool night especially in the inland sections. It was clear to partly cloudy. There was a light northeast and east wind flow near the coast to light variable winds to calm in the inland locations. There was a wide variation in temperatures again. Temperatures well inland dropped to middle and upper 40’s. Along coastal areas, temperatures were in the low to middle 60’s.

During the day, it was mostly sunny. Highs were mostly in the middle 70’s to around 80. Winds were generally easterly at 5 – 15 mph with higher gusts.

Tonight will be mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows will be middle 50’s to low 60’s well Inland to low 60’s to upper 60’s near the coast.

Winds will east and southeast at 10 – 15 mph. Seas will be 2 – 3 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop.

On Sunday, it will be partly cloudy. There will be a small chance of showers (The GFS forecast model keeps the deeper moisture to the south and southeast). Highs will be middle 70’s to low 80’s. Lows on Sunday night will mainly in the 60’s and around 70 to low 70’s near the coast of Miami-Dade County.

Winds will be southeasterly at 10 – 15 mph. Seas will be 2 – 3 feet and increase to 2 – 4 feet occasionally 5 feet for Palm Beach County waters Sunday night. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light to moderate chop.

On Monday, it will be partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs will be from upper 70’s to middle 80’s. Lows Monday night will again be mainly in the 60’s to around 70 near the coast of Miami-Dade County.

There will be a weak and diffused front over north/central Florida. A surface high pressure to the north of the front will “bridge” it and winds will become northerly.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, HPC Forecast

HPC Forecast 4-2-13 (8:00 am)

 

Winds will be southerly becoming west southwest and then northwest Monday night at 5 – 15 mph. Seas will be 2 – 3 feet and 2 – 4 feet occasionally 5 feet during the day for Palm Beach County waters. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop.

On Tuesday, it will be mostly partly sunny. The main area of low level moisture shifts eastward and away from the area.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-30-13(18z) at 069 Hours

 

There is a chance of some shower development late in the day around the Lake Okeechobee area due to sea breeze interaction and a weak diffused front.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-30-13(18z) at 078 Hours

 

Highs will be around 80 to middle 80’s. Lows Tuesday night will be mostly in the 60’s to around 70 to low 70’s near the coast of Miami-Dade and Broward County.

Winds will be northerly becoming northeasterly during the afternoon at 5 – 10 mph. Winds become east southeast 10 – 15 mph Tuesday night. Seas will be around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light to moderate chop.

For the rest of the week, the chance of showers will be increasing. Wednesday, there will be a little better chance of showers, primarily in the northern portion.

The chance of showers ramps up on Thursday through Friday. Forecast models have not been very consistent on the evolution of the system that will be affecting the area. The activity will then wind down later Friday/Saturday. Winds will also be increasing as the low develops over the Gulf of Mexico

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-30-13(18z) at 123 Hours

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-30-13(18z) at 150 Hours



It will continue to warm up into the end of the week with highs getting into the middle and upper 80’s and lows around low to middle 70’s. It may turn a little cooler over the weekend as a front moves through.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, HPC Forecast

HPC Forecast 4-6-13 (8:00 am)

 

Southeast Florida Weather 3-29-13

The Weather Center News, Southeast Florida, Weather

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was another rather cool night. Clouds moved in right along the coast as winds veered to the north northeast.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, Satellite Image

Satellite Image 3-29-13 (9:15 am)

 

 

Southeast Florida Weather

Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis 3-29-13 (6:00 am)

 

 

As illustrated in the above image, the veering of the winds allowed the clouds that have been over the Atlantic over the last few days to come ashore. Also, note the very light winds over the interior portion of the state. This allowed temperatures to fall over the well Inland areas into the 40’s and a few areas into the upper 30’s. There was quite a large temperature gradient across south Florida by as much as 20 – 25 degrees. Below are a lows around south Florida for this morning.

 

City Temps   City Temps
BIG CYPRESS 42   NORTH MIAMI BEACH 52
FORT LAUDERDALE BEACH 53   OCHOPEE 41
FORT LAUDERDALE DIXIE WP 51   OPA LOCKA APT 58
FORT LAUDERDALE EXEC 57   PALM BEACH GARDENS 46
FORT LAUDERDALE INTL 58   PEMBROKE PINES 56
HOLLYWOOD 52   PERRINE 47
HOMESTEAD GENERAL 46   POMPANO BEACH APT 56
IMMOKALEE 39   SOUTH BAY 15S 41
JUNO BEACH 45   SWEETWATER NWS FIU 50
MARCO ISLAND 45   WEST KENDALL TAMIAMI APT 53
MIAMI INTERNATIONAL 61   WEST PALM BEACH 51
NAPLES EAST 42      

 

During the day, it was mostly partly sunny. Highs were from low 70’s to upper 70’s. Winds became north and northeast early becoming more northeast and east at 10 – 15 mph with higher gusts. A small craft caution was issued for earlier today.

For tonight, it will be mostly clear except for some clouds possible along the coastal areas. Lows will be from about 50 to middle 50’s well Inland to upper 50’s to low 60’s near the Coast.

Winds will be east northeast at 5 – 15 mph.  Seas will be 2 – 3 feet, 2 – 4 feet occasionally 5 feet at Palm Beach County waters.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light to moderate chop.

On Saturday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs will be from middle 70’s to around 80. Lows Saturday night will be from middle 50’s to low 60’s well Inland to low 60’s to upper 60’s near the Coast.

Winds will be easterly veering east southeast Saturday night.  Winds will be 5 – 15 mph becoming 10 – 20 mph at Miami-Dade and Broward County Saturday night.  Seas will be 2 – 3 feet increasing to 2 – 4 feet occasionally 5 feet at Miami-Dade and Broward County waters.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop becoming moderate chop.

With an easterly wind flow, there will be slight risk of rip currents.

For Sunday, the tail end of a frontal system that moved through earlier in the week may backup into the area.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, Satellite Image

Satellite Image 3-29-13 (1:15 pm)

 

Additionally, winds will become more southeasterly will lead to more moisture for the area. There will be a small chance of showers.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-29-13(18z) at 042 Hours

 

It will be mostly partly cloudy. Highs will be middle 70’s to around 80 along coastal sections to 80 to middle 80’s in the interior areas. Lows Sunday night will be mostly in the 60’s to around 70 to low 70’s near the coastal areas of Miami-Dade County.

Winds will be southeasterly to south southeast at 5 – 15 mph except 10 – 20 mph during the day for Miami-Dade and Broward County during the day.  Seas will be 2 – 4 feet occasionally 5 feet diminishing to 2 – 3 feet for Miami-Dade and Broward County waters.

With an onshore flow, there will be a slight risk of rip currents.

Monday will also continue with the partly cloudy theme. Winds will become more southerly which will continue to bring moisture in the area. The chance of showers will also increase.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-29-13(18z) at 072 Hours

 

Also, temperatures will continue to rise under this regime. Highs will be in the upper 70’s to middle 80’s. Lows Monday night will be from middle 60’s to low 70’s.

Winds will be southeast to south southeast at 5 – 15 mph.  Seas will be 2 – 3 feet except for Palm Beach County where it will be 2 – 4 feet occasionally up to 5 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop to occasional moderate chop during the day.

As the week progresses, the chance of showers will be ramping up especially toward the middle/end of next week. A surface low will develop over the Gulf of Mexico and depending on structure and track of this system will determine the ultimate impact for southeast Florida.

Below is the GFS forecast model depiction of this feature and its impact.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-29-13(18z) at 132 Hours

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Model

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 3-29-13(18z) at 174 Hours



Below is the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) 6 – 10 day outlook for precipitation.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, CPC Outlook

6 to 10 Day Precipitation Outlook Issued 3-29-2013

 

This is still several days out and forecast models will be changing with timing, location and amount of precipitation. Will need to continue to monitor and see future trends.

Have a great Weekend!

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