Southeast Florida Weather 2-28-13

The Weather Center News, Southeast Florida, Weather

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was partly cloudy to cloudy. Winds were west to northwest at less than 10 mph, but became more northwesterly at 5 – 15 mph with higher gusts few hours before sunrise, but then gradually diminished.

Temperatures were mostly in the upper 50’s to low 60’s. There were some middle 50’s further inland.

During the day, the skies were changeable. It varied from mostly sunny to cloudy. Highs ranged from upper 60’s in the more cloudier areas to near 80 where it was mostly sunny. Winds were generally northwesterly at 5 – 15 mph.

A reinforcing cold front will move through the area overnight.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, HPC Forecast

HPC Forecast 3-1-13 (1:00 am)

 

Drier air will move in, but some cloudiness will continue. Cloudiness and rains will be creeping back up again from the south. This will affect mainly the southern portions on Friday and Friday night.

Tonight will be partly cloudy. There is a chance of some rain approaching from the south, but will probably hold off until morning. Lows tonight will be mostly from low to middle 50’s.  Some of the colder locations may see temperatures in the upper 40’s.

Winds will be northwest to west at 5 – 15 mph. Seas will be 2 – 3 feet except 3 – 5 feet occasionally 6 feet in at Palm Beach County waters. There will be a north northeast 3 foot swell off the Palm Beach County waters. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop.

On Friday, it will be partly cloudy to becoming cloudy especially in the southern areas. There will be a chance of rain, most likely in the southern areas. Highs will range around 70 to middle 70’s. If there is more clouds/rain, then these highs may be a little lower.

Winds for Friday and Friday night will be northwest at 10 – 15 mph. Seas will be 2 – 3 feet. Palm Beach County waters will be 2 – 4 feet occasionally 5 feet. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop.

Another reinforcing cold front will move through the area on Saturday.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, HPC Forecast

HPC Forecast 3-2-13 7:00 am

Southeast Florida Weather, HPC Forecast

HPC Forecast 3-3-13 (7:00 am)



Also an upper level shortwave will be rounding the base of the longwave over the Gulf of Mexico which will result in the longwave trough to deepen and “dig” further south. This longwave trough will move over the area on Sunday. As the axis of the longwave trough moves east and exits the state, conditions will clear out and additional cold air will move in.

The latest suite of models has the 850 mb temperature at 0 – 4 degrees Celsius (32 – 39 F) to occur on Sunday and then rising later on Sunday.

As it has been mentioned in previous posts, the surface temperature can be warmer or colder than the 850 mb level temperatures. Cloud cover, winds (speed and direction) will influence the surface temperature.

It is becoming more likely that there will be some rains/showers associated with the cold event. This is something south Florida does not see often. It will make for a raw day/night. Also winds will be increasing to breezy possibly windy at times.

It will be a mostly cloudy day with periods of cool/cold rain working in from the south. It appears that the most focused area to get rains will be the southern regions (initially) and most prevalent Saturday night through Sunday morning.

For Saturday, clouds will be increasing early becoming mostly cloudy. The chance of rains will be on an increase. The rain will be most likely Saturday night/early Sunday. Highs will be in the 60’s. Depending on cloud cover and rain, these temperatures may vary. Lows will be primarily in the 40’s except low 50’s near the coast of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties.

Winds will be out of northwest at 10 – 20 mph. Seas will average 2 – 5 feet occasionally 6 – 8 feet in the Gulf Stream Saturday night. A small craft exercise caution may be issued for portions of the Atlantic waters.

On Sunday, it will start off cloudy with some rain. It will be cold. Highs will be in the 60’s (if clouds/rain linger longer, would not be surprised that it stays in the 50’s in some areas).

Lows will range from middle 30’s to low 40’s in the Inland areas to middle and upper 40’s near the Coast. There may be more fine tuning of these temperatures. Clouds and winds will influence the temperatures. Winds will not be shifting to a northeast component so there will not be maritime influence. However, the coldest of the air will have moved out.

Winds will be out of northwest at 10 – 20 mph. Seas will average 2 – 5 feet occasionally 6 – 8 feet in the Gulf Stream. A small craft exercise caution may continue for portions of the Atlantic waters.

Next cold front looks to arrive on Wednesday.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, HPC Forecast

HPC Forecast 3-6-13 (7:00 am)

 

It will not be as cold as the weekend cold event.

 

Southeast Florida Weather 2-27-13

The Weather Center News, Southeast Florida, Weather

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was partly cloudy early becoming cloudy as the front neared the area. The front was oozing southward. Light showers were moving into the area during the predawn hours.

It was a rather mild/warm night. Lows were primarily in the low to middle 70’s but were dropping into the middle and upper 60’s interior areas to low 70’s near the coast with frontal passage. Winds were southwest and west in advance of the front but shifted to the northwest and north with passage of the front.

During the day, it cleared out temporarily this morning before becoming cloudy again with rains/showers rest of the day into the evening (except for the southern areas). The front was stalling out just along/south of the Keys.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, Satellite Image

Satellite Image 2-27-13 (9:15 am)

 

Highs reached middle to upper 70’s before the rains came in. As the clouds and rains came in, temperatures dropped into upper 60’s and low 70’s. Areas that remained sunny had highs near 80 degrees.

For tonight, it will be cloudy early with decreasing clouds/rain toward morning. Lows will range from the 50’s in Palm Beach County to middle 50’s to low 60’s at Miami-Dade and Broward Counties.

Winds will be west to northwest at 5 – 15 mph. Seas will average 2 – 5 feet and occasionally up to 6 feet at Palm Beach County waters. A north northeast 3 foot swell will continue in Palm Beach County waters.

The front will be nearby but moving slowly away.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, HPC Forecast

HPC Forecast 2-28-13 (1:00 am)

Southeast Florida Weather, HPC Forecast

HPC Forecast 2-28-13 (7:00 pm)

 



On Thursday, Showers/rain may creep back in during the day most likely in southern areas. It will be mostly partly cloudy. Highs will be in the middle to upper 70’s. Lows will be generally in the 50’s.

Winds will be northwest to north at 10 – 15 mph. Seas will be 2 – 5 feet. Seas in the Gulf Stream for Palm Beach County waters will be 4 – 6 feet occasionally 8 feet. A north northeast 3 foot swell will continue for Palm Beach County waters. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop.

There will be a series of reinforcing fronts moving through the area. The last front should be late Saturday/early Sunday. These fronts will bring in more cooler/colder air.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, HPC Forecast

HPC Forecast 3-3-13 (7:00 am)

 

Friday, will generally be partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs will be around 70 to low 70’s. Friday night will be colder. Lows will range from middle 40’s to low 50’s inland to low to middle 50’s near the coast.

Winds will be northwesterly at 10 – 20 mph. Seas will average 2 – 5 feet and occasionally 6 feet in the Gulf Stream off of Palm Beach County coast. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop.

Forecast models are in decent agreement with temperatures. The suite of models came in slightly colder today which is not unexpected. Tomorrows models may go back. They models are reacting to upper level features (shortwaves) dropping and rounding the base of the longwave trough over the eastern U.S. These features can be stronger or weaker than they were modeled which influences the depth, length and orientation of the longwave trough and ultimately the temperatures and associated weather.

The most recent model GFS model has the 850 mb temperature across south Florida at -2 to 2 degrees Celsius (28 – 32 F) and ECMWF at 0 – 4 degrees Celsius (32 – 39 F).

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Forecast

GFS 850 MB Temperature Forecast 2-27-13(18z) at 111 Hours

 

As it has been mentioned in previous posts, the surface temperature can be warmer or colder than the 850 mb level temperatures.

Some adjustment to temperatures may be made as confidence is improved. This is something to monitor for next few days. It will be a rather cool/cold weekend with the possibility of rain which does not happen to often in south Florida. It will become breezy to windy also.

Saturday will be mostly cloudy with a chance of rain/showers. It will be cool and becoming breezy. Highs will be in the 60’s. Lows will be mainly low 40’s to upper 40’s interior areas to low 50’s near the coast.

Winds will be west to northwest and 15 – 20 mph. Seas will be 2 – 5 feet occasionally 6 feet in the Gulf Stream. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop to choppy. A small craft exercise caution may be issued for portions of the Atlantic waters.

Sunday will be cloudy early with decreasing cloudiness later. There will also be a chance of showers early. Highs will be in the 60’s. Lows will be from middle 30’s to low 40’s inland to low to upper 40’s near the coast.

Winds will be northwesterly 15 – 25 mph. Seas will be 2 – 3 feet near the coast to 4 – 6 feet occasionally 8 feet in the Gulf Stream. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a moderate chop to choppy. A small craft advisory or small craft exercise caution may be in affect along the Atlantic waters.

Southeast Florida Weather 2-26-13

The Weather Center News, Southeast Florida, Weather

For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was mostly partly cloudy. It was a mild/warm night with lows mostly in the low to middle 70’s. Winds were stronger this morning than the previous morning from the south at 10 – 15 mph and gustier at times. This pulled warm and humid air from the south into our region. The stronger winds also minimized fog formation.

During the day, it was partly cloudy early to mostly cloudy later in the day. A few fast moving showers occurred along the coastal areas during the morning. Additional showers developed and moved north and northeastward during the day. A cold front was moving down the state and approaching the area late in the day. A line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front was weakening as it was moving down the state. Highs were low to middle 80’s with some upper 80’s.

It was breezy with winds southerly at 15 – 20 mph and gustier at times.

The front will be moving into the area overnight.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, HPC Forecast

HPC Forecast 2-27-13 (1:00 am)

 

Tonight will be mostly cloudy. With the front nearby, would not be surprised to see the development of status clouds. Aviation interests and motorists need to monitor for this. There will be a chance of showers. Lows will be generally in the 60’s to low 70’s near the coast.

Winds will generally southwesterly at 10 – 20 mph (possibly a little higher at Palm Beach County waters). Seas will range from 2 – 5 feet and occasionally up to 6 feet at Palm Beach County waters). Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light to moderate chop.

The front will be stalling out overnight/Wednesday just south of the area or the Florida Straits.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, HPC Forecast

HPC Forecast 2-27-13 (1:00 pm)

Southeast Florida Weather, HPC Forecast

HPC Forecast 2-28-13 (7:00 am)

 

 

 

 

 

 



Where it stalls will be the main focus of the most shower activity. In time the front will settle further south. Based on the GFS forecast model, the best chance of shower/thundershower activity will be from Wednesday morning to Thursday morning.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Forecast

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 2-26-13(18z) at 18 Hours

Southeast Florida Weather, GFS Forecast

GFS Wind & Precip Forecast Model 2-26-13(18z) at 39 Hours



On Wednesday, it will be mostly cloudy with showers/rain likely and chance of thundershowers. Clouds will decrease later in the day/night from north to south. It will be cooler most noticeable Wednesday night. Highs will be middle to upper 70’s. Lows will range from low to middle 50’s Inland areas of Palm Beach and Broward Counties to low 60’s near the Coast of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties.

Winds will be generally northwest at 5 – 15 mph. There will be a 3 foot northeast swell affecting Palm Beach County waters. Seas will be 2 – 3 feet, but 3 – 5 feet occasionally 6 feet at Palm Beach County waters. Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop.

Thursday will be partly sunny to partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Showers will be diminishing as the front presses further away. Highs will range from middle 70’s to near 80. Lows will be mainly in the 50’s.

Winds will be generally northwesterly at 10 – 15 mph (up to 20 mph for Palm Beach County waters).   Seas will average 2 – 5 feet occasionally 6 feet over the Palm Beach County waters.. There will be a north northeast swell 3 feet in Palm Beach County waters.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light chop.

Friday will be partly sunny. The GFS model has some clouds and possibly rain moving back from the south into the area later on Friday/Friday night (primarily in the southern areas).  Highs will be in the low to middle 70’s.  It will be cooler Friday night with lows will range from 40’s to low 50’s near the coast.

Winds will be northwesterly at 10 – 20 mph with seas 2 – 4 feet occasionally 5 feet.  Intracoastal waters and Biscayne Bay will have a light to moderate chop.

There will be a series of reinforcing fronts from Friday into Sunday.  The last one should be on Sunday.

 

Southeast Florida Weather, HPC Forecast

HPC Forecast 3-3-13 (7:00 am)

 

There has been little change with the temperatures for the upcoming cold weather event for this weekend into early Monday. Both the GFS model and ECMWF forecast models are in relative good agreement with the temperatures. The ECMWF shows temperatures at the 850 mb level of 2 – 6 degrees Celsius (36 – 43 F) for south Florida, while the GFS has it at 0 – 4 degrees Celsius (32 – 36 F). The GFS model at times becomes overzealous. More inclined to go with the ECMWF solution.

This does not necessarily mean this will be the surface temperatures. Other factors will influence surface temperature including wind speed and direction, cloud cover, etc.

As discussed in yesterday’s post, a shortwave trough will be rounding the base of the longwave trough over the eastern U.S. This shortwave will be crossing Florida. This will pull moisture back up over the area. This plus the cold northwesterly wind flow over the relatively warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico will result in increase of clouds and possibility of rain.

This may make for a “raw” weekend. If this all comes to fruition, highs may remain in the 50’s/60’s. On the plus side, it will keep the nighttime temperatures from being as cold. Conditions may clear out later Sunday/Sunday night so Sunday night temperature may be the coldest, but the coldest part of the airmass will have moved out. Winds will increase over the weekend to breezy/windy. A small craft exercise caution or advisory may be issued for portions of the Atlantic waters.

 

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