For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was clear to partly cloudy. Overnight lows were mainly in the upper 50’s to the middle 60’s. Some areas well inland were in the low to middle 50’s. Winds were very light and variable becoming offshore as a drainage flow developed.
During the day, it was sunny to partly sunny. No showers were detected on radar.
Highs were mostly around 80 to the middle 80’s. Light and variable winds early became onshore during the afternoon and increased to around 15 mph and gusty at times near the coast.
Late this afternoon, a weak surface Low was located in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, weak surface troughs were in the central Gulf of Mexico. These features were supporting an area of convection in the central Gulf of Mexico.
In the low-levels, dry air continued over the region. It was similar to Monday’s. This helped to preclude shower development over the region.
This also helped to keep dewpoint temperatures in the more comfortable 50’s to low 60’s range.
Short Range Forecast:
For tonight, it will be partly cloudy to cloudy. Lows will be in the low 60’s to middle 60’s inland to middle 60’s to around 70 at the metro and coastal areas. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the upper 50’s to around 60. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows in the low 70’s.
At the middle and upper levels, a weak trough will be moving overhead on Wednesday. A High continues in the Caribbean extending northward with another High in the northwest U.S. A stronger and amplifying trough in the central U.S. will migrate toward and off the U.S. east coast by the end of the week. A Low will pinch off in the western U.S. and open up while moving slowly eastward. A weakly cyclonic flow aloft will become mainly zonal (west to east) as the trough departs by the end of the week over Florida.
A surface trough in the central Gulf of Mexico progresses eastward toward Florida while a cold front moves into the Florida panhandle Wednesday afternoon.
The front continues southeast across Florida Wednesday/Wednesday night and moves off the southeast Florida coast early Thursday.
A diminishing band of showers accompanies the trough and cold front.
Although, there will be a mid-level trough moving over the region on Wednesday which may aid the development of showers, the timing appears to be before maximum heating of the day plus PWAT doesn’t increase until later in the day. During the day/evening with daytime heating, increasing PWAT (Precipitable Water) to 1 ¼” to 1 ½”, and possible sea breeze (although winds may be too strong for development) convergence, widely scattered to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop.
The pressure gradient tightens in advance of the front and is maintained with the passage of the front as a surface High builds behind it. Small Craft Operators exercise caution may be required on Wednesday and Friday with Small Craft Advisory may be required for Thursday.
As winds become more onshore later Thursday/Friday, the risk of rip currents will increase.
Cooler and drier air filters in on Thursday. By later on Thursday, PWAT falls to around ½” which is well below normal for this time of year. This will result in dewpoint temperatures falling into the 50’s and possible 40’s.
There is better consensus among GFS and ECMWF regarding minimum temperature forecast for Thursday night/Friday morning. The models have backed off slightly on the level of cooling, especially near the coastal areas. As mentioned in yesterday’s update, there will be some waffling of temperature forecast. However, if this trend continues, some adjustments to forecast temperatures may be required. It is interesting to note that the models are showing minimum temperatures attained well before daybreak Friday especially near the coastal areas (due to boundary layer winds veering onshore). Temperatures may even rise toward daybreak. There will also be a large temperature gradient from the coastal areas to well inland areas. While most of the interior areas of south Florida will be in the 50’s, some well inland areas may be in the middle and upper 40’s while some of the coastal areas may be around 60 to the low 60’s.
For Wednesday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy. There will be widely scattered to scattered showers and isolated thundershowers. It will become breezy. Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s. If the clouds hold off, some areas may reach the upper 80’s. Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper 50’s to the middle 60’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around the middle 50’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows in the upper 60’s.
Small Craft Operators exercise caution may be required.
For Thursday, there may be some lingering clouds early, but will decrease during the morning becoming mostly sunny. It will be breezy. Highs will be in the low 70’s to upper 70’s. Lows Thursday night will be around 50 to the low 50’s inland to middle 50’s to upper 50’s at the metro and coastal areas. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the middle and upper 40’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s.
Small Craft Advisory may be required.
For Friday, it will be sunny. It may be somewhat breezy especially near the coast. Highs will be in the middle and upper 70’s. Lows Friday night will be in the upper 50’s to low 60’s inland to low 60’s to middle 60’s at the metro and coastal areas. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low and middle 50’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties may see lows in the upper 60’s.
Small Craft Operators exercise caution may be required. Also, the risk of rip currents will increase. An update via twitter will be sent out as warranted on Friday with the rip current risk level.
Medium Range Outlook:
In the middle and upper levels, the Low in the southwest U.S. progresses slowly eastward while dampening out to a trough. A High in the eastern Pacific advances toward the U.S. west coast helping to reinforce the ridge in the northwest U.S. A zonal flow continues over the southern tier of states including Florida with heights rising to around the 580 DM.
Although, it will remain mostly dry over the weekend, as the surface High shifts to the east off the Mid-Atlantic States, winds will become more east and southeast over the weekend and even southerly by Sunday. This will allow for low level moisture to slowly increase. This may lead to the possibility of some showers.
The front that moved through Wednesday night/Thursday morning has become stationary south of Cuba. With the wind flow becoming more southerly and as a surface Low develops in the western Gulf of Mexico, it or its remnants get drawn northward. Additionally, a frontal system moves into the southeast U.S.
After a brief cool down at the end of the week, temperatures will warm up to normal to little above normal levels.
Extended Range Outlook:
At the middle and upper levels, the trough/Low amplifies and phases with northern stream to develop into a full meridional trough. The trough advances eastward toward the eastern U.S. by early next week. The zonal flow aloft becomes cyclonic over the southeast U.S. including Florida. Heights fall to the middle 570’s DM range.
The front makes slow southward progress into the state early next week.
A band of showers and possibly thunderstorms will accompany this front. Additionally, weak waves/surface Lows may develop and move along the front possibly resulting in periods of enhanced activity. Due to the slow movement, there may be an extended period of unsettled weather possibly into the middle of the week.
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