Generally tranquil weather continues for the week and into the weekend with sunny to partly sunny conditions. There may be some isolated showers in the northern portion on Thursday with little better chance on Friday before diminishing early in the weekend.
Temperatures will rise to above normal levels.
May see some isolated showers again on Sunday. May see increase chance of showers for early next week and especially into the middle of next week as a front approaches.
For southeast Florida weather, during the overnight hours, it was clear to partly cloudy with some areas reporting cloudy conditions at times. There was a weak band of light showers well offshore and moving further away.
Overnight lows were generally in the middle and upper 60’s with some areas further inland in the upper 50’s to the low 60’s. Winds were variable to west and northwest at light speeds with periods of calm
During the day, it was sunny. Clouds were limited as there was less of an inversion which allowed for better mixing and also allowed for drier air at the upper levels to mix down.
Below is the animated Water Vapor imagery depicting dry air (brown shading) overspreading Florida. The milky shading represents higher moisture.
High temperatures were mostly in the low to middle 80’s with a few areas reaching the upper 80’s. Light and variable to westerly winds became onshore along the metro/coastal areas by the middle to late afternoon.
Below is the U.S. surface analysis for late this afternoon.
Upper level drier air mixed in to lower levels resulting in less overall moisture. This lowered dewpoint temperatures to mostly in the middle 50’s to low 60’s for a large portion of south Florida.
Short Range Forecast:
For tonight, it will be clear to partly cloudy. Lows will be in the middle 60’s to around 70. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around 60 to the low 60’s. Some areas near the immediate coastal areas of Miami-Dade County may see lows in the low 70’s. There may be some late night/early morning fog mainly in the interior.
At the middle and upper levels, for Thursday, a subtle trough approaches Florida from the Gulf of Mexico underneath a ridge approaching the eastern U.S. A High in the central Caribbean builds to 588 DM plus. The ridge in the eastern U.S. is followed by a trough in the central U.S. and weak ridging in the western U.S. with a Low/trough approaching the Northwest U.S. coast. The subtle trough crosses Florida on Thursday and moves east of the area by Friday. By the beginning of the weekend will have exited into the Atlantic with a negative tilted ridge approaching the eastern U.S. The ridge is followed by a Low moving into the Southwest U.S. This Low will be responsible for severe weather to breakout for portions of the Central U.S. and points east for the weekend and into early next week. Although the flow aloft will be generally zonal (west to east) over Florida, there will be minor undulations as features move across.
A weak cold front near the Florida/Georgia border progresses slowly southward reaching central Florida on Thursday while weakening further and dissipating.
Surface High pressure to the north of the front “bridges” over it and as it moves into the Atlantic, east and southeast winds develop. This will allow for some low level moisture to work into the region.
May see the development of fog late Thursday night/early Friday morning mainly in the interior areas.
The GFS model has backed off on shower chances for the northern portion of the area for Thursday and it looks isolated at best.
There is a better chance for showers on Friday, but it remains low.
By Saturday, deep layer ridging will be in control leaving the area mainly dry with sunny to partly sunny conditions.
For Thursday, it will be sunny to partly sunny. There may be an isolated shower mostly in the northern portion. Highs will be in the low to middle 80’s. Some areas may reach the upper 80’s mainly in the interior areas. Lows Thursday night will be in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the low to middle 60’s.
For Friday, it will be partly sunny to partly cloudy. There may be isolated to widely scattered showers. Highs will be in the low 80’s to upper 80’s. Lows Friday night will be in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows around the middle 60’s.
For Saturday, it will be sunny to partly sunny. Highs will be in the low 80’s to the upper 80’s. Lows Saturday night will be around 70 to the middle 70’s. Some areas well inland (especially in Palm Beach and Broward Counties) may see lows in the middle 60’s to upper 60’s.
Medium Range Outlook:
In the middle and upper levels, by the beginning of next week, a ridge moves into the eastern U.S. with Florida in a general zonal flow aloft. The flow aloft becomes more amplified across the U.S. with the Low in the Southwest U.S. slowly moving eastward into the Central U.S.
A weak frontal system moves into the southeast U.S. during the weekend dissipating while progressing southward. With the proximity of the dissipating front plus daytime heating and sea breeze interaction, it may be enough to generate some shower activity for Sunday. With the low level wind regime, the activity will be most numerous inland and the western portion of south Florida.
The chance of showers may continue into Monday, but may shift further north as the wind flow becomes more southerly.
Extended Range Outlook:
At the middle and upper levels, the flow aloft becomes highly amplified across the U.S. by the middle of next week. A Low slowly approaches the eastern U.S. with a ridge in the western U.S. The flow aloft becomes increasingly cyclonic over the eastern U.S. and Florida.
A more active cold front approaches the Florida panhandle on Tuesday and moves slowly into north Florida on Wednesday.
The GFS model indicates a chance of showers on Tuesday and even better chance on Wednesday. The activity looks to be more numerous Tuesday in the northern portion and Wednesday be more widespread.
There are timing differences with this front as the ECMWF model is about a half day slower with the frontal movement. The GFS model than has the front moving through on Thursday.
With passage of the frontal system, cooler and drier air filters in behind the system.
As mentioned on Monday’s post, temperatures longer term are forecast to fall to below normal levels as anomalous lower heights occur over the eastern U.S. as a high amplitude trough/Low sets up in the eastern U.S. Below is the 8 – 14 Day Forecast Temperature Outlook.
Below is the GFS 500 mb Height/Anomaly Forecast for day 8 and 11.
Something that has not been seen often this season that 3 climate indices (positive PNA, negative AO and negative NAO) are in sync suggesting below normal temperatures for the eastern U.S. Additionally, the West NAO (sub-category of the NAO) gives further support for cooler/colder weather driving further south into the U.S. Click here for additional information on the indices.
Obviously, it is late in the season and there will not be cold air this far south, but temperatures are forecast to be below normal for this time of year.
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